New England Patriots vs Chicago Bears Picks and Predictions for Thursday October 22 2026
The Patriots have won three straight, the Bears just got their quarterback back, and somebody’s winning streak is getting a little dent Thursday night. New England heads into Soldier Field playing some pretty good football. Chicago is coming off a 31-23 win in Atlanta, where Caleb Williams looked like he’d never missed a snap. Both teams have reason to feel good. I just don’t know if the Bears should be giving a full field goal to a New England club that’s been awfully tough to put away.
Kickoff is Thursday, October 22, at 8:15 PM ET on Prime Video. Chicago is favored by three points, with the total at 50.5. The weather at Soldier Field is worth checking closer to kickoff, especially the wind. You can find more games on our free NFL picks page.
New England Patriots Have Something Going
New England is 4-2 after beating the Jets 26-19 on Sunday. The Patriots started the season 1-2, but they’ve won three in a row and are looking more comfortable on both sides of the ball. The Jets made them work for it. That’s fine. Winning a division game when the other team knows what you’re trying to do isn’t always pretty. Now comes a road trip on a short week, which isn’t ideal, but the Patriots have handled their business lately.
New England averages 22.7 points and 382.2 yards per game. That’s enough offense to move the ball without needing a bunch of crazy plays. The defense has been the more dependable unit, allowing 18.8 points and 319.3 yards per game. Opponents are getting just 91.8 rushing yards a game. That’s the number I keep coming back to. Chicago likes to run the football, and if the Patriots can make the Bears throw on obvious passing downs, they’ve got a chance to control this game.
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Drake Maye has thrown for 1,463 yards with 11 touchdowns and seven interceptions. He’s made some good throws, although seven picks are more than you’d like after six games. Rhamondre Stevenson has 263 rushing yards, and Romeo Doubs has 261 receiving yards with three touchdowns. Doubs was placed on injured reserve Monday and won’t play Thursday. Maye was a full participant in Monday’s walkthrough estimate despite a shoulder issue. A.J. Brown was limited with an ankle problem, while offensive linemen Ben Brown and Alijah Vera-Tucker didn’t participate. That line situation bothers me more than anything else about New England.
Chicago Bears Are Glad To Have Caleb Williams Back
Chicago is 4-2 after beating Atlanta 31-23. The Bears needed that one after getting thumped 31-7 by Green Bay. Williams returned from injury and completed 30 of 36 passes for 305 yards against the Falcons. That’s a pretty nice afternoon for somebody coming back from the sidelines. Chicago’s offense looked a whole lot better with him running it, and the Bears got enough out of their ground game to keep Atlanta guessing.
The Bears average 25 points and 406.7 yards per game. They’re running for 160.7 yards a contest, which is a big reason the offense has worked. D’Andre Swift can turn a decent hole into a big gain, and Williams is dangerous when a play breaks down. Chicago’s defense is giving up 19.8 points and 318.5 yards per game. Those are good numbers, but the pass rush has taken some hits. Against a quarterback who can move around, that’s a problem if you don’t keep him in the pocket.
Swift leads the ground game with 398 yards and six touchdowns. Luther Burden III has 31 catches for 361 yards, giving Williams a dependable target when he needs one. Austin Booker has four sacks, but Chicago is missing Montez Sweat because of a suspension. T.J. Edwards has a hamstring issue, Jack Sanborn is dealing with a concussion, and guard Jonah Jackson has been bothered by hip and quadriceps trouble. The Bears have enough talent to win, but they’re not exactly healthy heading into a Thursday game.
New England Patriots vs Chicago Bears Picks and Predictions
New England Patriots +3 (-110)
I’ll take New England and the three points. Chicago looked good Sunday, and Williams can absolutely beat this defense if the Patriots give him room to run around. But New England has been steady on defense, especially against the run, and I don’t think the Bears will have the same easy rushing lanes they found against some earlier opponents. The Patriots have won three straight, Maye is making enough plays to keep drives alive, and Chicago’s defensive injuries give him some opportunities. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Bears win at home. I just think this is a field-goal game, and getting the full three with New England is worth taking.
Under 50.5 Points (-110)
I’m going under 50.5. Both offenses have been moving the ball, so I understand why the number is sitting above 50. But these defenses are allowing fewer than 20 points a game, and Thursday football can get sloppy when teams have only a few days to prepare. New England should try to make Chicago earn its yards instead of letting Swift run loose. The Bears, meanwhile, will want to get after Maye behind a banged-up offensive line. A couple of long drives ending in field goals would help this bet quite a bit. I’m looking for something around Chicago 24, New England 23.
Final Picks: New England Patriots +3 (-110) and Under 50.5 Points (-110)
This preview was completed October 20, 2026. Betting lines, injuries, weather, and other game information may change before kickoff.
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