New England Patriots vs Jacksonville Jaguars Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Sunday September 27 2026
The New England Patriots make their first trip to Jacksonville in quite a while to face the Jaguars in an AFC matchup where the key number of 3 has held firm all week. This Patriots vs Jaguars prediction starts with a Patriots offense searching for answers, as Drake Maye has struggled badly on downfield throws without AJ Brown and just lost starting guard Mike Onwenu to a likely season-ending ankle injury. Jacksonville, meanwhile, owns one of the most efficient offenses in the league through two weeks and let a two-score lead slip away in a tough spot at Denver. The Jaguars are laying 3 at a very affordable price while the ticket count leans toward New England, and the total has climbed two full points since opening. Below you will find the odds, line movement, full matchup breakdown, injuries and our complete betting card. For more weekly plays across the league, check out our NFL picks.
Patriots vs Jaguars TLDR: Quick Picks and Prediction
- Spread Pick: Jaguars -3 (-105)
- Total Pick: Under 46.5 (-115)
- Final Score Prediction: Jaguars 26, Patriots 17
Odds and Line Movement
Current Odds
| Team | Spread | Total | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New England Patriots | +3 (-115) | 46.5 | -105 | -115 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | -3 (-105) | 46.5 | -105 | -115 |
Line Movement - Spread
| Date | New England | Jacksonville | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/24 | +3 -115 | -3 -105 | NE 59%, NE 66% |
| 09/24 | +3 -112 | -3 -108 | NE 59%, NE 66% |
| 09/23 | +3 -118 | -3 -102 | NE 54%, NE 68% |
| 09/23 | +3 -115 | -3 -105 | NE 54%, NE 68% |
| 09/23 | +3 -118 | -3 -102 | NE 54%, NE 68% |
| 09/23 | +3 -115 | -3 -105 | JAC 51%, NE 68% |
| 09/23 | +3 -118 | -3 -102 | JAC 51%, NE 68% |
| 09/22 | +3 -112 | -3 -108 | NE 56%, NE 68% |
| 09/22 | +3 -115 | -3 -105 | NE 52%, NE 65% |
| 09/21 | +3 -112 | -3 -108 | JAC 56%, NE 60% |
| 09/21 | +3 -110 | -3 -110 | JAC 56%, NE 60% |
| 09/21 | +3 -112 | -3 -108 | JAC 56%, NE 60% |
| 09/21 | +3 -115 | -3 -105 | JAC 56%, NE 60% |
| 09/21 | +3 -118 | -3 -102 | JAC 56%, NE 60% |
Line Movement - Total
| Date | Over | Under | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/25 | 46.5 -105 | 46.5 -115 | OV 77%, UN 54% |
| 09/23 | 45.5 -115 | 45.5 -105 | UN 73%, UN 54% |
| 09/23 | 45.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | UN 83%, UN 56% |
| 09/23 | 45.5 -105 | 45.5 -115 | UN 83%, UN 58% |
| 09/22 | 45.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | UN 81%, UN 59% |
| 09/21 | 45.5 -112 | 45.5 -108 | OV 100%, OV 83% |
| 09/21 | 45.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | OV 100%, OV 83% |
| 09/21 | 45.5 -105 | 45.5 -115 | OV 100%, OV 83% |
| 09/20 | 44.5 -115 | 44.5 -105 | OV 100%, OV 100% |
| 09/20 | 44.5 -110 | 44.5 -110 | OV 100%, OV 100% |
The spread has not moved off 3 all week, but the juice tells the story. Sportsbooks have consistently priced New England +3 as the more expensive side, with the Patriots ranging from -110 to -118 while Jacksonville -3 has been available as cheap as -102. That tells us the books are protecting themselves on the underdog side, which lines up with the ticket count. New England has held between 60 and 68 percent of the tickets throughout, and the money has flipped back and forth, currently sitting at 59 percent on the Patriots. For Jaguars backers, the result is a favorable price on the home side without having to lay the hook at 3.5.
The total opened at 44.5 and climbed to 45.5 on early Over money, where it sat for most of the week. The market then swung toward the Under, with Under bettors holding between 73 and 83 percent of the money at 45.5. A late push of Over money, now at 77 percent of the handle, moved the number to 46.5. The ticket count remains split, with a slim majority of bettors still on the Under. The two-point climb from the opener gives Under bettors a better number than they had earlier in the week.
Key Matchups and Game Preview: Patriots at Jaguars
New England Returns to Jacksonville
This will be the Patriots' first trip to Jacksonville in quite a while. The Jaguars' last home game in this AFC series was actually played in London, where Jacksonville won 32-16 at Wembley Stadium in October 2024. That result gives the Jaguars a recent edge in this matchup, and this time they get a true home game with a crowd behind them. For a Patriots team dealing with offensive issues, a road trip is not what they needed.
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Drake Maye's Deep Passing Slump Hurts the Patriots
Drake Maye is desperately trying to find a spark in the deep passing game. On downfield throws of 10 or more air yards through the first two games, Maye is completing just 46.7 percent of his passes with no touchdowns, four interceptions and a 53.5 passer rating. Compare that with last season, when he completed 61.0 percent of those throws with 18 touchdowns, only six interceptions and a 124.2 passer rating. That is a dramatic decline. A quarterback who has turned into a turnover risk on downfield throws is going to have a very difficult time sustaining drives and producing points.
Patriots Miss AJ Brown on the Outside
A big part of Maye's struggles traces back to AJ Brown being out of the lineup. Without his top downfield target, Maye has not found a reliable option to stretch the field. That has allowed defenses to crowd the short and intermediate areas, making it harder for the Patriots to move the ball efficiently. Until New England finds an answer on the outside, its offensive ceiling will remain limited.
TreVeyon Henderson Returns but New England Loses Onwenu
Maye got some good news last week when dynamic running back TreVeyon Henderson returned to the lineup, giving the offense a playmaker out of the backfield. But the good vibes were short-lived. Early indications suggest starting guard Mike Onwenu will miss the rest of the season after suffering a broken ankle against the Steelers. Losing a starting offensive lineman hurts both the running game and pass protection, which is a significant blow for an offense that is already struggling.
Why the Jaguars Loss in Denver Is Misleading
We are not looking to punish the Jaguars after last week's loss in Denver. Mile High is a very difficult place to play, especially at the beginning of the season when conditioning is not fully up to par. Jacksonville held a two-score lead in the third quarter before being outscored 17-0 down the stretch. The Jaguars played well for most of that game, and the late collapse is more a product of the environment than a reflection of the team's true ability.
Jaguars Offense Ranks Among the League's Most Efficient
Through two weeks, the Jaguars' offense sits in the top five in both overall success rate and passing success rate. That is an offense that consistently stays on schedule, converts manageable downs and moves the ball through the air. Against a Patriots team that is struggling offensively and just lost a key lineman, Jacksonville's efficiency gives it a clear edge.
Jacksonville's Week 1 Win Looks Better Every Week
That Week 1 demolition of Cleveland looks even better now after the Browns went into Tampa Bay and won last week. Jacksonville's early results suggest this is a team capable of handling quality opponents, and returning home after a difficult road trip, the Jaguars should be well positioned to bounce back.
Betting Trends: NE vs JAC
- Jacksonville beat New England 32-16 at Wembley Stadium in October 2024.
- Maye is completing 46.7 percent of his throws of 10 or more air yards with no touchdowns and four interceptions.
- Maye completed 61.0 percent of those throws last season with 18 touchdowns and a 124.2 passer rating.
- Jacksonville held a two-score third-quarter lead in Denver before being outscored 17-0.
- Jacksonville ranks top-five in overall success rate and passing success rate.
- The spread has held at Jacksonville -3 all week, with the Jaguars priced as low as -102.
- New England has held between 60 and 68 percent of the spread tickets.
- The total has climbed from 44.5 to 46.5.
Patriots Tickets vs Jaguars Price
The majority of bettors have been on New England, but the books have kept the Patriots +3 at the more expensive price. That means Jaguars backers are getting a cheap number on the key number of 3. For a home team with a more efficient offense facing an opponent that just lost a starting lineman, that is a price worth taking advantage of.
Jacksonville Total Climbs to 46.5
The total has risen two full points since opening, largely on late Over money. The Under drew the majority of the money for much of the week, and the ticket count still slightly favors the Under. With Maye struggling downfield and the Patriots offensive line losing Onwenu, the higher number gives Under bettors extra room.
Key Injuries and Things To Know: NE vs JAC
Patriots Injury Report
- AJ Brown: Out of the lineup, limiting the downfield passing game.
- Mike Onwenu: Early indications suggest he will miss the rest of the season with a broken ankle.
- TreVeyon Henderson: Returned to the lineup last week.
New England's injury situation is a major concern. Brown's absence has contributed to Maye's downfield struggles, and losing Onwenu weakens the offensive line. Henderson's return adds a playmaker, but the Patriots offense is short-handed in key areas. Confirm final injury designations before kickoff.
Jaguars Things to Know
- Offensive efficiency: Top-five in overall success rate and passing success rate through two weeks.
- Week 2 result: Lost in Denver after leading by two scores in the third quarter.
- Week 1 result: Dominated a Cleveland team that just won in Tampa Bay.
Jacksonville returns home after a difficult trip to altitude. Its offense has been one of the most efficient in the league, and the Jaguars are in a strong position to bounce back. Check final injury reports before placing bets.
Patriots vs Jaguars Side and Over/Under Picks
Why the Jaguars Cover -3
Jacksonville has the more efficient offense, ranking top-five in overall and passing success rate, and it returns home after a loss in a very difficult environment. New England is struggling in the downfield passing game without Brown, with Maye throwing four interceptions and no touchdowns on deep attempts, and the Patriots just lost Onwenu from the offensive line. With the Jaguars priced as cheaply as -105 at the key number of 3, this is a strong spot to back the home team.
- Spread Pick: Jaguars -3 (-105)
Why New England and Jacksonville Stay Under 46.5
New England's offense has major limitations right now. Maye is posting a 53.5 passer rating on downfield throws, Brown is out and the offensive line just lost a starter. That makes it difficult to see the Patriots contributing a big share of points. Jacksonville should move the ball efficiently, but with a lead, it can lean on its steady offense to control the game. The total has climbed two points since opening, giving Under bettors a better number than earlier in the week.
- Total Pick: Under 46.5 (-115)
New England vs Jacksonville Final Score Prediction
Expect Jacksonville's efficient offense to stay on schedule and build a lead in front of its home crowd. Henderson gives New England some bursts on the ground, but Maye continues to struggle to push the ball downfield without Brown. The Jaguars bounce back from the Denver loss, cover the field goal spread comfortably and keep the game under the total.
- Final Score Prediction: Jaguars 26, Patriots 17
- Spread Pick: Jaguars -3 (-105)
- Total Pick: Under 46.5 (-115)
How to Wager On Patriots vs Jaguars
The spread has been locked at 3 all week, so the juice is where bettors can find value. Jacksonville -3 has been available as cheaply as -102, so shop around for the best price and aim for -105 or better. Avoid laying -3.5 if the line moves, since a three-point Jaguars win would then become a loss. Bettors confident in a comfortable Jacksonville win can also consider a small position on the Jaguars moneyline.
On the total, Under 46.5 is a better number than the 44.5 opener, and it gives extra room for a game we project to finish in the low 40s. If the total climbs to 47 or higher before kickoff, the value on the Under only improves. Because both picks point toward a Jacksonville win with a limited Patriots offense, pairing Jaguars -3 with Under 46.5 fits the projected game script if your sportsbook offers fair correlated pricing. Stick to consistent unit sizing and manage your bankroll carefully.
For more data-driven tools to help you bet Patriots vs Jaguars and the rest of the NFL slate, explore our guide to AI picks. You can also compare platforms through our Dimers review and our Oddible review to find the tools that best fit your betting approach.
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