New Orleans Saints vs Detroit Lions Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Sunday September 13 2026
Detroit opens the season against a New Orleans team that took an unusual approach to the preseason, and this Detroit vs. New Orleans picks preview breaks down the odds, the line movement and the matchup angles bettors need before kickoff. For more NFL picks and predictions like this one, check out our NFL predictions hub before locking in any wagers on this one.
TLDR: Quick Picks and Prediction
- Spread Pick: Detroit -6.5 (-122)
- Total Pick: Under 49.5
- Final Score Prediction: Detroit 27, New Orleans 17
Odds and Line Movement
Here is where the numbers stand heading into kickoff, along with the full line movement tracked across the last several months for both the spread market and the total.
Current Odds: Detroit vs. New Orleans
| Market | Line |
|---|---|
| Spread - New Orleans | +6.5 (+100) |
| Spread - Detroit | -6.5 (-122) |
| Total - Over 49.5 | -115 |
| Total - Under 49.5 | -105 |
Line Movement - Spread
| Date | New Orleans | Detroit | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/30 | +6.5 +100 | -6.5 -122 | DET 74%, DET 71% |
| 08/18 | +7 -110 | -7 -110 | DET 80%, DET 65% |
| 08/16 | +7 -115 | -7 -105 | DET 90%, DET 68% |
| 08/14 | +6.5 -102 | -6.5 -120 | - |
| 07/29 | +6.5 -105 | -6.5 -115 | - |
| 07/29 | +7.5 -120 | -7.5 -102 | - |
| 07/13 | +7 -105 | -7 -115 | - |
| 06/02 | +7 -106 | -7 -114 | - |
| 05/14 | +7 -106 | -7 -114 | - |
| 05/14 | +7 -110 | -7 -110 | - |
| 05/14 | +7.5 -120 | -7.5 -102 | - |
| 05/14 | +7.5 -115 | -7.5 -105 | - |
Line Movement - Total
| Date | Over | Under | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/02 | 49½-115 | 49½-105 | OV 80%, UN 52% |
| 08/31 | 50½-105 | 50½-115 | OV 78%, UN 52% |
| 08/30 | 49½-115 | 49½-105 | OV 78%, UN 51% |
| 08/30 | 49½-112 | 49½-108 | OV 77%, UN 52% |
| 08/30 | 49½-110 | 49½-110 | OV 77%, UN 52% |
| 08/30 | 49½-108 | 49½-112 | OV 77%, UN 52% |
| 08/25 | 49½-105 | 49½-115 | OV 75%, OV 56% |
| 08/25 | 49½-115 | 49½-105 | OV 75%, OV 56% |
Detroit vs. New Orleans: Key Matchups and Game Preview
Credit goes to NFL analyst Mike Tanier from Too Deep Zone for shining a spotlight on Kellen Moore's unique approach to the preseason. There were 12 starting quarterbacks that did not play a single snap during the preseason, and most of the names on that list are easy to guess: Rodgers, Jackson, Mahomes, Goff and Stafford among a few others, but 11 of the 12 names are long-time established starters within their organizations with very little to benefit from taking live snaps in the preseason.
New Orleans's Unusual Preseason Approach
The lone exception on that list is Saints starting quarterback Tyler Shough, who has nine starts in his NFL career. In fact, Moore didn't play any of his starters in the preseason. That's not an exaggeration. None of the Saints' projected starters played a single snap during New Orleans' preseason games, raising real questions about a team already dealing with plenty of uncertainty heading into Week 1.
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Detroit's Defensive Track Record
It's no secret that injuries to the defense have derailed Detroit's season over the last few years, but it's worth remembering what the Lions' defense looked like at the beginning of last season. At full strength before the injuries began to mount, Detroit held Green Bay to 266 total yards and 14 first downs in the opener. In Week 2, the Lions held Chicago's high-flying offense to 21 points and forced Caleb Williams into one of his worst games of the season.
NO Quarterback Uncertainty
Does Moore truly have that much faith in Shough that he didn't need to see him take a single snap in the preseason? Does Moore feel that good about his roster that he doesn't need to see his starting offensive line in live-game action? It's a fascinating approach to the preseason, and it leaves plenty of unanswered questions about how New Orleans' offense will look once real football begins.
Lions' Injury History
According to FTN, the Lions had the worst injury luck of any defensive unit last season. As attrition becomes a factor, there's an understandable desire to fade Detroit's defense later in the year, but at full strength in Week 1, this unit should be capable of keeping the Saints at a modest offensive output.
NO vs. DET Betting Trends
The public has been heavily on Detroit throughout the offseason, with support ranging from 74% to 90% on one metric and 65% to 71% on the other across every recorded snapshot from 08/16 through 08/30. On the total, the Over has held the edge on one metric, ranging from 75% to 80%, while the other metric flipped from Over support around 56% back on 08/25 to Under support between 51% and 52% by late August and into September.
NO and DET: Key Injuries and Things To Know
- Detroit's defense dealt with the worst injury luck of any unit in the league last season, according to FTN, though the group is expected to be at full strength for this Week 1 matchup.
- None of New Orleans' projected starters, including quarterback Tyler Shough, played a single snap during the team's preseason games.
Side and Total Picks for Detroit vs. New Orleans
- Spread Pick: Detroit -6.5 (-122) — with New Orleans' entire projected starting lineup, including quarterback Tyler Shough, having played zero preseason snaps, and Detroit's defense expected to be at full strength for the opener the way it was at the start of last season, the Lions look well-positioned to cover at home.
- Total Pick: Under 49.5 — Detroit's defense held Green Bay to 266 total yards in last year's opener and forced one of Caleb Williams' worst games in Week 2, and a similarly full-strength unit should be capable of keeping New Orleans' unproven offense to a modest output.
Final Score Prediction: Detroit vs. New Orleans
- Detroit: 27
- New Orleans: 17
This projection reflects Detroit's defense returning to its early-season 2025 form against a New Orleans offense that enters with almost no live-game reps for its starters, while Detroit's own offense should have enough to build a comfortable cushion.
How to Wager on Detroit vs. New Orleans
For this matchup, the clearest value sits with laying the points with Detroit given the questions surrounding New Orleans' complete lack of preseason snaps for its starters, paired with the Under given how dominant Detroit's defense looked at full strength to begin last season. The line movement tables above also show the spread narrowing from as high as 7.5 down to 6.5 over the last several months, so bettors tracking value closely would have found a bigger number earlier in the offseason.
Before locking in a wager on this matchup, it can help to compare projections from more than one model. Our AI picks hub breaks down how different AI-driven tools are approaching games like Detroit vs. New Orleans, including a closer look at the Dimers review and the Oddible review for anyone wanting a second opinion on the spread or total before betting this one.
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