New Orleans Saints vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Picks and Predictions for Sunday December 7 2025
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The NFC South rivalry renews Sunday as the New Orleans Saints head to Tampa Bay looking to slow down a Buccaneers team that has dominated this matchup in recent years. Tampa Bay has won six of the last seven meetings — including a 23-3 victory in New Orleans earlier this season — and oddsmakers have installed the Bucs as sizable home favorites.
With both teams still inconsistent offensively and trending heavily toward the under, bettors should expect another grinding, defense-first divisional game. For more breakdowns and analysis, check out our updated NFL picks.
TLDR: Quick Picks and Prediction
- Spread Pick: Saints +9
- Total Pick: Under 42
- Projected Final Score: Buccaneers 20, Saints 16
Odds and Line Movement
Current Odds
| Team | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| New Orleans | +8.5 | 42 | — |
| Tampa Bay | -8.5 | — |
Line Movement - Spread
| Date | New Orleans | Tampa Bay | Public (%,$) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/01 | 8.5/-108 | -8.5/-112 | TB 90%, 92% |
| 12/01 | 8.5/-112 | -8.5/-108 | TB 89%, 90% |
| 11/30 | 7.5/-110 | -7.5/-110 | TB 93%, 90% |
| 11/30 | 7.5/-115 | -7.5/-105 | — |
| 11/29 | 7.5/-105 | -7.5/-115 | — |
| 11/25 | 8/-115 | -8/-105 | — |
Line Movement - Total
| Date | Over | Under | Public (%,$) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/02 | 42/-105 | 42/-105 | — |
| 12/01 | 42/-120 | 42/+102 | — |
| 11/30 | 42/-110 | 42/-110 | — |
| 11/30 | 42/-118 | 42/+100 | — |
| 11/25 | 42/-110 | 42/-110 | — |
Key Matchups and Game Preview
Tampa Bay has controlled this rivalry, winning six of the last seven meetings and dominating defensively in the 23-3 win earlier this season. Spencer Rattler and Tyler Shough both saw snaps in that first matchup, giving the Bucs an early read on New Orleans' rookie QB situation.
Recent trends point strongly toward another defensive struggle. Six of the last eight matchups have stayed under the total, and New Orleans has played eight straight unders (7-0-1). Their 21-17 loss to Miami last week was more lopsided than the score suggests — the Dolphins led comfortably until a late garbage-time touchdown by the Saints.
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Tampa Bay snapped a three-game losing streak by beating Arizona last week, but the Bucs have failed to cover in four straight contests. They have not covered against anyone besides New Orleans since mid-October, and if this line closes around Tampa Bay -9, it will be their largest number to lay all season. With the offense sputtering, that raises real concerns.
New Orleans’ offensive ceiling remains low, but their defense continues to produce consistently. The Bucs' defense matches up well with a Saints offense that struggles to sustain drives and relies heavily on short passing. But the question becomes whether Tampa Bay can score enough to justify this spread — recent performances say no.
With both teams leaning strongly toward the under and neither offense showing explosive upside, this sets up as another slow, defense-driven divisional game where taking the points is the only reasonable side.
Betting Trends for NO vs TB
- Head-to-Head: Six of the last eight meetings stayed under.
- Tampa Bay: 1-4 ATS in its last five games.
- New Orleans: Under is 7-0-1 in last eight games.
- Buccaneers: Only cover since mid-October came against New Orleans.
Key Injuries and Things To Know - NO vs TB
- Saints: No major additions to the injury list but QB rotation remains unstable.
- Buccaneers: No major offensive upgrades despite breaking their losing streak.
- Early-week injury developments have been pro-defense, anti-offense on both sides.
Side and Over/Under Picks
- Side: Saints +9
- Total: Under 42
Final Score Prediction
Buccaneers 20, Saints 16
With both offenses inconsistent and both defenses trending upward, the under remains the best angle, and the Saints catch too many points in a matchup historically decided by defensive execution.
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