New York Jets vs New England Patriots Picks and Predictions for Sunday October 18 2026
The New York Jets head up to Foxborough on Sunday, October 18, 2026, to face the New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium. Kickoff is at 1:00 PM ET, and CBS has the broadcast. Both teams are coming off wins, but you wouldn’t know they played the same sport by looking at how those games went. New England put 45 points on Las Vegas and won comfortably. The Jets needed nearly the entire afternoon to beat Cleveland 17-12. The Patriots are laying 7.5 points at DraftKings, where the total is 43.5. Early forecasts suggest temperatures around 44 degrees, so it should feel like a proper October afternoon in Massachusetts. Nothing unusual about that. What interests me is how much respect New England is getting after two impressive wins. I can see why the Patriots are favored. Asking them to win by eight points against a division opponent is another matter. We’ve got more games to sort through this week, so be sure to check our free NFL picks throughout the season.
New York Jets Have A Defense Worth Watching
The Jets are 2-3, with one win in three road games. Their victory over Cleveland last Sunday ended a three-game losing streak, although nobody will be framing a picture of that performance. New York won 17-12 despite losing two fumbles and drawing 10 penalties. Braelon Allen finally put the Jets ahead with a 22-yard touchdown run late in the fourth quarter. Before that, they’d lost 23-12 to Chicago and 31-24 to Detroit. I’ve seen worse teams than these Jets. The trouble is that they’ve made even simple things look difficult. Against Cleveland, the defense kept giving them chances, and the offense seemed determined to use up every last one before doing something useful. A win is a win, though. Aaron Glenn will take it, and so will a team that had been waiting nearly a month for another one.
New York averages 18.6 points and 284 yards of offense per game. Neither figure suggests the Patriots have much to fear from the Jets with the football. They’ve rushed for 470 yards through five games, which comes out to 94 per afternoon. That isn’t terrible, but it hasn’t helped produce many touchdowns. The defense is why I’m interested in New York this week. The Jets allow 19.2 points per game and held Cleveland to 198 total yards. They also sacked the quarterback eight times. That last number is worth reading again. Eight sacks in one game doesn’t happen because the defense got lucky on a couple of plays. New York attacked, kept attacking, and eventually Cleveland ran out of answers. The Patriots have a much better offense, and I wouldn’t expect another eight-sack day. But after seeing what the Jets did Sunday, I’m curious how comfortable Drake Maye will be behind an offensive line dealing with injuries.
Geno Smith has thrown for 1,084 yards, six touchdowns, and no interceptions. He hasn’t been careless with the ball through the air, which makes New York’s offensive struggles a little more frustrating. Smith passed for 182 yards against Cleveland, and Garrett Wilson did much of the useful work. Wilson had 104 receiving yards and a touchdown. He’s up to 31 catches for 374 yards and three scores this season. Allen has rushed for 236 yards and two touchdowns, including 116 against the Browns. David Bailey has five sacks, with three coming last weekend, while Dane Belton leads the Jets with 37 tackles. There are injuries to consider. Breece Hall has a quadriceps problem, Adonai Mitchell has been sidelined by a finger injury, and Will McDonald IV has been dealing with a calf issue. That’s a few things for Glenn to sort through before Sunday. The Jets don’t have a big margin for error on offense, so losing another dependable option would make an already difficult trip tougher.
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New England Patriots Are Making Life Easier On Themselves
New England comes in at 3-2 and has won both home games. The Patriots are also riding a two-game winning streak, and they’ve scored 79 points during that stretch. That’s quite a change from the start of the season. Last Sunday, they beat Las Vegas 45-17, with Maye throwing four touchdown passes and running for another. New England finished with 536 yards of offense. A week earlier, the Patriots went to Buffalo and won 29-26. I like that combination of results. Winning a close game on the road is one thing. Coming home and taking care of a weaker opponent without much fuss is another. The 35-6 loss at Jacksonville doesn’t seem quite so recent anymore. Mike Vrabel’s team has started to look comfortable, and that can make a difference. Nobody wants to spend four quarters trying to prove they belong in the league every Sunday.
The Patriots average 22 points and 372.4 yards per game. That scoring number is a little misleading because New England managed only 36 points across its first three games. The offense is clearly in a better place now. The running attack has gained 636 yards, averaging 127.2 per contest. That’s one advantage New England has over the Jets. Maye can throw the ball, but he doesn’t have to carry the entire afternoon on his shoulders. The Patriots have also been good defensively, allowing 18.8 points per game. They held Pittsburgh to three points earlier in the season and limited Las Vegas to 17 last weekend. The Raiders managed just 2.1 yards per rushing attempt. I’ve always liked teams that can make an opponent uncomfortable without needing anything spectacular to happen. New England is getting there. The defense handles its work, the running game takes some pressure off the quarterback, and suddenly the offense has room to breathe.
Maye has thrown for 1,228 yards with eight touchdowns and seven interceptions. I wouldn’t ignore those seven interceptions just because his last game was so good. Against Las Vegas, he completed 26 of 34 passes for 374 yards and four touchdowns without throwing a pick. He added a rushing touchdown for good measure. New England would love to see that version of Maye every week. Romeo Doubs has 13 receptions for 219 yards and two touchdowns. Rhamondre Stevenson has rushed for 227 yards and two scores, while DeMario Douglas caught two touchdowns against the Raiders. The bad news is that the offense came away from Sunday with a couple of important injuries. TreVeyon Henderson suffered a high ankle sprain and is expected to miss several weeks. Starting left tackle Will Campbell hurt his knee and is considered week-to-week. I worry more about the tackle. The Jets are coming off an eight-sack performance, and Maye has already thrown enough interceptions without being rushed into more questionable decisions.
New York Jets vs New England Patriots Picks and Predictions
Against the Spread Pick: New York Jets +7.5
I’ll take the Jets getting 7.5 points. I expect New England to win, but I don’t see much value in asking the Patriots to win this game by more than a touchdown. The Jets have been dreadful at times on offense. They score 18.6 points per game, and their performance against Cleveland didn’t exactly inspire confidence. But New York’s defense has been doing its job. Allowing 19.2 points a game is respectable, and those eight sacks against the Browns weren’t an accident. Maye has thrown seven interceptions, and now New England may have to replace its starting left tackle. That’s not an ideal combination against a defense that has figured out how to pressure quarterbacks. The Patriots could make this pick look foolish if Maye plays another game like he did against Las Vegas. New England is the better team, and the Jets have been far too generous with penalties and fumbles. I’m willing to live with that risk. Division games can get uncomfortable, especially when the underdog has a capable defense. A touchdown plus the extra half-point is enough for me. Give me New York +7.5.
Total Pick: Under 43.5 Points
I like Under 43.5 points here. New England has scored 74 points in two games, which makes an under sound a little strange at first. But the Jets have allowed only 19.2 points per contest, and their offense isn’t likely to match New England score for score. New York averages just 18.6 points and 284 yards. Against a Patriots defense giving up 18.8 points, I don’t expect a sudden scoring explosion. The Jets will probably try to run the ball, shorten the game, and keep Maye standing on the sideline. That’s a sensible approach when your own offense has trouble finishing drives. New England can run it too, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Vrabel leans on Stevenson while the offensive line sorts itself out. The danger is obvious enough. Maye can make big plays, and both teams have shown they can give the ball away. A short field or two could push the score higher than I’d like. But I think this game will be more of a grind than New England’s last two outings. Something like 24-16 in favor of the Patriots feels about right. I’ll take Under 43.5 points.
Final Picks: New York Jets +7.5 and Under 43.5 Points.
Disclaimer: This preview was prepared October 14, 2026. Betting lines, injuries, weather forecasts, and other game information can change before kickoff. Check the latest information before placing a wager.
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