San Francisco 49ers vs Dallas Cowboys Picks and Prediction for Sunday November 15 2026
San Francisco heads to Arlington on Sunday for a 4:25 PM ET game against Dallas at AT&T Stadium. The 49ers are favored by 4.5 points, and the total is 55.5. The stadium has a retractable roof, and the early expectation is that it’ll be closed, so outside weather shouldn’t affect the game. This is one of the more interesting matchups of the weekend. San Francisco has been one of the best teams in football, while Dallas has been scoring plenty but giving up too much. I like the 49ers, and I think their defense is the difference. Get ready for all the football action with our free NFL picks.
San Francisco Has Been Playing Some Pretty Good Football
San Francisco is 7-1 after beating Las Vegas 38-17 on Sunday. The 49ers have been rolling, and they’ve been doing it with a combination of offense and defense. That’s what separates them from most teams. San Francisco can score, but it also has the defense to protect a lead. Dallas has been struggling defensively, and that’s a matchup the 49ers should be able to exploit.
The 49ers are averaging 29.4 points per game and allowing only 19.5. They’re also giving up just 291.9 yards a game, third-best in the NFL. San Francisco has been especially good against the run, allowing only 80.9 rushing yards per game. That’s important because Dallas has been getting good production from its running game. If the 49ers can take that away, the Cowboys are going to have to throw more than they’d like.
San Francisco has enough offensive weapons to attack Dallas in different ways. Brock Purdy doesn’t need to force the football downfield every possession. The 49ers can run, throw short passes, and take advantage of defensive mistakes. That’s exactly what I’d expect against a Dallas defense that’s been giving up too many yards. The biggest concern is whether San Francisco can avoid turnovers. Give Dallas extra possessions, and the Cowboys have enough offense to make this interesting.
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Dallas Can Score, but the Defense Is a Problem
Dallas is 4-5 after beating Indianapolis 27-23 on Sunday. The Cowboys have been competitive offensively, but the defense has been holding them back. That’s been the story all season. Dallas can move the football and score points, but it hasn’t been getting enough stops. Against San Francisco, that’s a pretty serious problem.
The Cowboys are averaging 27.3 points per game and allowing 26.2. They’re also giving up 372.7 yards a game, one of the worst marks in football. Dallas has been particularly vulnerable against balanced offenses, and that’s exactly what San Francisco brings. The Cowboys need to get pressure without leaving their secondary exposed. That’s easier said than done against a team that can beat you in several different ways.
Dak Prescott has been keeping Dallas competitive, and Javonte Williams has been one of the league’s more productive runners. But Williams faces a 49ers defense allowing only 80.9 rushing yards a game. That’s going to make things difficult. Dallas needs Prescott to have a big afternoon, but the Cowboys also need their defense to contribute. They can’t expect to win another shootout if San Francisco keeps getting easy scoring chances.
San Francisco 49ers vs Dallas Cowboys Picks and Prediction
Spread Pick: San Francisco 49ers -4.5
I’m taking San Francisco and laying the 4.5 points. Dallas has enough offense to keep this close, and playing at home helps. But the Cowboys have been allowing 26.2 points and nearly 373 yards a game. San Francisco is scoring 29.4 while allowing only 19.5. That’s a pretty significant difference. The 49ers also have the run defense to make Dallas one-dimensional. I think San Francisco gets enough stops to win by more than a field goal.
Total Pick: Under 55.5
I’ll take the under 55.5. I know both teams can score, and Dallas has been involved in plenty of high-scoring games. But 55.5 is a big number. San Francisco has been allowing fewer than 20 points a game, and the 49ers have been excellent against the run. Dallas should score, but I don’t expect the Cowboys to put up 30. San Francisco can also control the clock if it gets a lead. Something around 30-20 49ers makes sense, and that leaves us comfortably below the total.
Final Picks: San Francisco 49ers -4.5 | Under 55.5
Disclaimer: Completed November 11, 2026. Betting lines, injuries, and stadium roof status should be confirmed before kickoff.
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