Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Miami Dolphins Picks & Prediction – Sunday, December 28, 2025
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The Tampa Bay Buccaneers head to Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida for a Sunday, December 28, 2025 matchup with the Miami Dolphins, with kickoff set for 1:00 PM ET on FOX. Weather actually is a factor here—game-time conditions are listed around 80°, which can speed up play, test conditioning, and quietly impact late-game defensive tackling. For more matchups and daily betting breakdowns, be sure to check out our free NFL picks.
Tampa Bay’s Offence Can Score, But the Finish Has Been Missing
Tampa Bay comes in at 7-8 overall and 4-4 on the road, and their recent form explains why they’re under .500 despite having real offensive punch. Over the last five games, the Bucs are 1-4, with three straight close losses: they fell at Carolina 23-20, lost to Atlanta 29-28, and dropped another tight one to New Orleans 24-20. The one win in this stretch was a 20-17 result over Arizona, but the low point was the 34-7 loss at the Rams. Bottom line: Tampa’s been in games, but they haven’t closed drives—or closed games—well enough.
Statistically, Tampa’s identity starts with quarterback efficiency. Baker Mayfield has 3,144 passing yards with a strong 23 TD / 8 INT ratio, and the Bucs have been able to move the ball through the air consistently. Their rushing production has been more modest, with Rachaad White leading at 539 yards and 4 TD. In the pass game, Emeka Egbuka has been the top yardage producer with 910 receiving yards, giving them a reliable target who can keep the chains moving. Defensively, the headline numbers are more “grit than glamour,” with Yaya Diaby leading the sack chart at 6, and Lavonte David still doing Lavonte David things with 105 tackles.
The injury report is where Tampa’s handicap gets complicated. Chris Godwin (questionable) is the obvious one—if he’s limited, it changes how Miami can defend Tampa’s passing concepts. But the bigger concern might be the trenches: Tristan Wirfs (questionable) and Luke Goedeke (questionable) matter a ton against a Dolphins front that can create pressure without blitzing. On defence, Calijah Kancey is on IR, and Anthony Nelson (questionable) is another name to monitor, because Tampa’s pass rush already hasn’t been dominant.
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Miami’s Ground Game Is Legit, But the Passing Volatility Is Real
Miami enters at 6-9 overall with a 4-4 home record, but their recent stretch has been trending the wrong way. The Dolphins are 3-2 in their last five, but that’s weighed down heavily by two ugly losses: last week they were blown out by Cincinnati 45-21, and before that they lost at Pittsburgh 28-15. The wins in this span were against the Jets 34-10, the Saints 21-17, and Washington 16-13 in OT. So yes, they can win games—but when they get forced off script or fall behind, the wheels have come off quickly.
From a stats standpoint, Miami’s engine is the run game. De’Von Achane has been outstanding with 1,267 rushing yards and 8 TD, giving them a way to control pace and protect the defence. Tua Tagovailoa has 2,660 passing yards with 20 TD and 15 INT, and that interception number matters because it speaks to the volatility of their passing game—especially if they’re chasing points. In the receiving room, Jaylen Waddle leads with 910 yards and 6 TD, and defensively Bradley Chubb (6.5 sacks) has been their top sack producer. Jordyn Brooks (169 tackles) also tells the story of a defence that’s had to play a lot of snaps.
Miami’s injury report has several “quietly important” names. Aaron Brewer (questionable) at centre matters in both protection calls and run blocking cohesion. Minkah Fitzpatrick (questionable) affects the back-end stability of the secondary. Darren Waller (questionable) is a big situational piece if he goes, especially in the red zone. Add in Tyrel Dodson (questionable) and Dee Eskridge (questionable), and you’ve got enough uncertainty to make Miami’s range of outcomes pretty wide.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Miami Dolphins Prediction
I’m taking Buccaneers -6 ATS, and I’m doing it because I think Tampa matches up well against Miami’s biggest issue: passing-game volatility. In my eyes, the Dolphins are at their best when Achane is dictating tempo and the offence is balanced. But Tampa’s ability to throw efficiently without gifting turnovers (Mayfield’s TD/INT profile is the key here) gives them the cleaner path to sustained drives. I also think Miami’s recent blowout loss is a red flag defensively—if Tampa protects even reasonably well up front, I see them putting together multiple touchdown drives and forcing Miami into a more pass-heavy, higher-risk script.
For the total, I lean Under 45.5. Even with the warm conditions, I’m not convinced we get a clean shootout because Tampa’s injuries on the offensive line could cap explosive play volume, and Miami’s offence is most comfortable playing methodical, run-driven football. My projection is a game where Tampa controls stretches, Miami answers a bit on the ground, but the Dolphins’ passing-game inconsistency prevents them from fully keeping pace for four quarters. Betting on sports and on the Buccaneers is easy, but even easier if you use the best sportsbooks. Make sure you know about how the fans are looking on prediction markets for the Dolphins with the social sportsbooks. Getting the most out of your bets on Dolphins vs Buccaneers can be done by using the Fanatics Sportsbook promo code.
Final Score Prediction: Buccaneers 27 – Dolphins 17
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