Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Saturday September 12 2026
Aston Villa and Nottingham Forest meet Saturday, September 12 in a Premier League matchup between two sides still searching for consistent attacking production early in the 2026 campaign, and bettors weighing this week's EPL predictions will want to note how low-scoring this fixture projects to be. For more angles across the slate, check out our EPL picks before kickoff. Aston Villa enters as a slight home favorite at +120 on the moneyline, with Nottingham Forest priced at +225 and the draw at +245, while the total is set at 2.5 goals.
TLDR: Quick Picks and Prediction
- Spread Pick: Nottingham Forest +0.5 (-155)
- Total Pick: Under 2.5 (-120)
- Projected Final Score: Aston Villa 1, Nottingham Forest 1
Odds and Line Movement
Current Odds
| Market | Aston Villa | Nottingham Forest | Draw |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +120 | +225 | +245 |
| Spread | -0.5 (+110) | +0.5 (-155) | - |
| Total | Over 2.5 / Under 2.5 (-120) | - | |
Line Movement - Moneyline
| Date | Nottingham Forest | Aston Villa | Draw |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/09 | +221 | -123 | +248 |
| 09/08 | +220 | +124 | +247 |
| 09/08 | +218 | +125 | +247 |
| 09/07 | +227 | +120 | +248 |
| 09/07 | +225 | +121 | +248 |
| 09/07 | +241 | +113 | +251 |
| 09/06 | +244 | +112 | +251 |
| 09/06 | +243 | +112 | +252 |
| 09/06 | +246 | +111 | +252 |
| 09/06 | +246 | +110 | +253 |
| 09/06 | +247 | +110 | +255 |
| 09/06 | +246 | +110 | +254 |
| 09/06 | +248 | +112 | +245 |
| 09/06 | +246 | +111 | +251 |
| 09/06 | +258 | +106 | +255 |
Line Movement - Total
| Date | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 09/09 | 2.5 (-102) | 2.5 (-119) |
| 09/08 | 2.5 (-101) | 2.5 (-120) |
| 09/07 | 2.5 (-102) | 2.5 (-119) |
| 09/06 | 2.5 (-103) | 2.5 (-118) |
| 09/06 | 2.5 (-103) | 2.5 (-117) |
| 09/06 | 2.5 (-104) | 2.5 (-115) |
| 09/06 | 2.5 (-105) | 2.5 (-115) |
| 09/06 | 2.5 (-106) | 2.5 (-114) |
| 09/06 | 2.5 (+104) | 2.5 (-126) |
| 09/06 | 2.5 (-102) | 2.5 (-119) |
| 09/06 | 2.5 (-103) | 2.5 (-118) |
| 09/06 | 2.5 (-103) | 2.5 (-116) |
Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest Key Matchups and Game Preview
Aston Villa Recent Form
Villa's recent domestic form has been concerning, as they followed a 4-0 loss at Brighton with a 1-0 defeat to Arsenal and a scoreless draw at Hull before earning a 3-2 Champions League victory at Club Brugge. That stretch of results leaves plenty of questions about the home side's attacking rhythm entering this matchup.
Nottingham Forest Recent Form
Forest has also struggled to turn possession into consistent scoring, losing 1-0 to Leeds in league play before a 2-0 EFL Cup defeat, but consecutive Premier League draws against Liverpool and Tottenham suggest they have become harder to break down.
Villa Expected Goals Profile
Aston Villa is averaging 0.79 expected goals while conceding 1.77 xG, producing a -1.0 expected-goal differential. Villa does hold a possession advantage at 45% to 39%, but the underlying shot-quality numbers have not been favorable in recent matches.
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Forest Expected Goals Profile
Nottingham Forest has generated 1.20 xG per match and allowed 1.22 for essentially an even expected-goal differential. Forest has averaged 0.67 goals compared with Villa's 0.00 across the listed league sample, a notable gap in actual scoring output between the two sides.
Forest Attacking Threats
Morgan Gibbs-White and Dan Ndoye have each scored once for Forest, with Gibbs-White also providing an assist, giving the visitors multiple threats capable of creating something in a tight game at Villa Park.
Aston Villa Spread Value
Villa deserves respect at home, but their poor early attacking output and defensive metrics make laying half a goal difficult against a Forest side that recently held both Liverpool and Tottenham to draws.
Betting Trends: AVL vs NFO
Aston Villa's -1.0 expected-goal differential stands in sharp contrast to Nottingham Forest's roughly even xG split of 1.20 for and 1.22 against. Villa holds the possession edge at 45% to 39%, but Forest has actually outscored Villa 0.67 to 0.00 across the listed league sample. Both sides have shown defensive resilience recently, with Forest drawing back-to-back Premier League matches against Liverpool and Tottenham.
Key Injuries and Things To Know: AVL vs NFO
Injuries could further limit Villa, with Amadou Onana sidelined by an ACL injury and Johan Monzambi dealing with a knee issue. Onana's absence is particularly significant because it can affect Villa's midfield ball-winning and ability to transition efficiently between defense and attack. Nottingham Forest lists Nicolo Savona with a knee injury, reducing some defensive depth but leaving much of the attacking core available.
Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest Side and Over/Under Picks
- Spread Pick: Nottingham Forest +0.5 (-155)
- Total Pick: Under 2.5 (-120)
Villa deserves respect at home, but their poor early attacking output and defensive metrics make laying half a goal difficult against a Forest side that recently held both Liverpool and Tottenham to draws. With neither offense consistently creating high-quality chances, the under also offers value at 2.5.
Final Score Prediction
- Aston Villa: 1
- Nottingham Forest: 1
How to Wager On Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest
Bettors looking to expand their approach to this Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest matchup have a few additional resources worth exploring. Our AI picks break down data-driven angles for the game, while our Dimers review and Oddible review both provide additional model-based perspectives that can be used alongside the Nottingham Forest spread and under 2.5 total outlined above.
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