Chelsea vs Hull City Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Saturday September 12 2026
Chelsea and Hull City meet Saturday, September 12 in a Premier League matchup where the market is giving Chelsea a massive edge, and bettors weighing this week's EPL predictions will want to consider whether Hull's clean sheets can hold up against a much stronger opponent. For more angles across the slate, check out our EPL picks before kickoff. Chelsea is listed around -425 on the moneyline, with Hull sitting at +1200 and the draw at +550, while the total is set at 3.5 goals.
TLDR: Quick Picks and Prediction
- Spread Pick: Chelsea -1.5 (-160)
- Total Pick: Over 3.5 (+105)
- Projected Final Score: Chelsea 4, Hull City 1
Odds and Line Movement
Current Odds
| Market | Chelsea | Hull City | Draw |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -437 | +1309 | +514 |
| Spread | -1.5 (-160) | +1.5 (+115) | - |
| Total | Over 3.5 (+105) / Under 3.5 | - | |
Line Movement - Moneyline
| Date | Hull City | Chelsea | Draw |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/09 | +1309 | -437 | +514 |
| 09/09 | +1309 | -437 | +514 |
| 09/08 | +1311 | -438 | +515 |
| 09/06 | +1300 | -424 | +499 |
| 09/06 | +1252 | -408 | +486 |
| 09/06 | +1271 | -413 | +490 |
| 09/06 | +1279 | -418 | +494 |
| 09/05 | +1219 | -398 | +479 |
| 09/05 | +1303 | +500 | +500 |
| 09/03 | +1300 | -425 | +500 |
| 09/01 | +1302 | -426 | +501 |
| 09/01 | +1290 | -422 | +498 |
Line Movement - Total
| Date | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 09/09 | 3.25 (-120) | 3.25 (-101) |
| 09/09 | 3.25 (-120) | 3.25 (-101) |
| 09/08 | 3.25 (-121) | 3.25 (+100) |
| 09/08 | 3.25 (-120) | 3.25 (-101) |
| 09/06 | 3.25 (-118) | 3.25 (-103) |
| 09/06 | 3.25 (-116) | 3.25 (-105) |
| 09/06 | 3.25 (-119) | 3.25 (-102) |
| 09/06 | 3.25 (-117) | 3.25 (-104) |
| 09/05 | 3.25 (-113) | 3.25 (-107) |
| 09/05 | 2.75 (-125) | 2.75 (+100) |
| 09/05 | 2.75 (-116) | 2.75 (-105) |
| 09/03 | 2.75 (-114) | 2.75 (-105) |
| 09/02 | 2.75 (-123) | 2.75 (+100) |
| 09/02 | 3.25 (-125) | 3.25 (+100) |
Chelsea vs Hull City Key Matchups and Game Preview
Chelsea Attacking Output
Chelsea enters this matchup at 2-0-1 in league play and has shown plenty of attacking firepower, averaging 2.67 goals per match with 1.67 expected goals. The Blues have several dangerous attacking options, with João Pedro, Cole Palmer and Morgan Rogers each scoring twice through three appearances, while João Pedro has also contributed two assists.
Hull City Defensive Results
Hull's early defensive results have been impressive, with three clean sheets and a perfect 100% save percentage in the listed sample, but the underlying numbers are less convincing against an attack of Chelsea's caliber.
Chelsea Expected Goals Profile
Hull is averaging only 0.86 expected goals while allowing 1.61 xG, producing a -0.8 expected-goal differential, compared with Chelsea sitting essentially even at +0.0. That gap suggests Hull's clean sheets may not be sustainable against a stronger opponent.
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Hull City Attacking Output
Hull's attack has also been modest at 1.00 goal per match, though Semi Ajayi and Nobel Mendy have each scored once, while Regan Slater and Mohamed Belloumi have added assists to give the visitors at least some spark going forward.
Chelsea Recent Results
Recent form also favors Chelsea's overall attacking ceiling. The Blues beat Fulham 3-2, Brighton 4-3 and Luton 2-0 before losing 2-1 at Arsenal, a run that shows Chelsea can score in bunches even in tougher matchups.
Hull City Resilience
Hull has shown resilience with a 2-0 win over Manchester United, a 1-0 victory at Coventry and a scoreless draw with Aston Villa, results that speak to the club's defensive organization even with a thin attacking profile.
Betting Trends: CHE vs HUL
Chelsea's +0.0 expected-goal differential is a significant step ahead of Hull's -0.8 mark, and the gap in attacking talent is reflected in Chelsea averaging 2.67 goals per match compared with Hull's 1.00. Chelsea has scored in every match this season, including a 4-3 win over Brighton and a 3-2 win over Fulham, while Hull's results have leaned heavily on defensive execution rather than high-end attacking production.
Key Injuries and Things To Know: CHE vs HUL
Injuries could make Hull's task even more difficult, as Matt Crooks, Charlie Hughes, Eliot Matazo, Jack Butland, Oscar Zambrano, Darko Gyabi and Matty Jacob are all listed with various issues, leaving the visitors with reduced depth across multiple areas. Chelsea's injury list is shorter, though Jordan Henderson is dealing with an arm problem.
Chelsea vs Hull City Side and Over/Under Picks
- Spread Pick: Chelsea -1.5 (-160)
- Total Pick: Over 3.5 (+105)
Given Chelsea's superior attacking talent, home-field advantage and Hull's extensive injury concerns, the Blues should control possession and create the better chances throughout the match. With Chelsea's attack averaging 2.67 goals per game, the over 3.5 also stands out as an appealing complement to the spread.
Final Score Prediction
- Chelsea: 4
- Hull City: 1
How to Wager On Chelsea vs Hull City
Bettors looking to expand their approach to this Chelsea vs Hull City matchup have a few additional resources worth exploring. Our AI picks break down data-driven angles for the game, while our Dimers review and Oddible review both provide additional model-based perspectives that can be used alongside the Chelsea spread and over 3.5 total outlined above.
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