Croatia vs. Ghana Picks and Prediction for Saturday, June 27, 2026
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Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia hosts Group L's most consequential finale at 5:00 PM ET as Croatia and Ghana go head-to-head in what amounts to a straight knockout match. Group L standings heading into Matchday 3: England 4 points, Ghana 4 points, Croatia 3 points, Panama 0 points. Croatia must win to be certain of reaching the last 16, while Ghana need only a draw to guarantee their progress from Group L. A Croatia win is the call in what should be a tightly contested group decider, with Dalic's side carrying the greater attacking firepower and the desperation of a team that cannot settle for less than three points. For Ghana, a draw in Philadelphia almost certainly sees them through to the knockout stages for only the second time in their World Cup history, after their famous quarter-final run in 2010. Read on to find out which side advances from Group L in our Croatia vs. Ghana prediction. Get our top World Cup Predictions and increase your bankroll!
Croatia: Modrić's Last Stand
Croatia's campaign has been turbulent — a heavy 4-2 defeat to England on Matchday 1 before a grinding 1-0 victory over Panama — but there are signs that Dalic's side are finding their footing just in time. Croatia arrive at Lincoln Financial Field in the more precarious position. Dalic's side cannot afford another slip if they harbor any ambitions of reaching the knockout rounds. Their qualifying campaign was imperious, topping the European group with seven wins and a draw, netting 26 goals.
Must-win urgency produces attacking intensity Ghana has not yet faced. The Vatreni press from the first minute with tournament survival at stake — this specific intensity, different from England's controlled approach, eventually breaks through the West African block after sustained pressure. Croatia will need Luka Modrić, now 40 years old and approaching 200 international caps, to dictate the tempo and unlock a Ghana backline that has conceded just once across two World Cup games. Dalic should keep much of the same team that beat Panama, although Ante Budimir will be pushing to start after scoring the winner as a substitute.
Croatia's squad is a blend of world-class experience and emerging quality. Luka Modrić remains the heartbeat of the team, with Mateo Kovačić and Mario Pašalić providing cover and athleticism in midfield. Joško Gvardiol is the standout defender, bringing his elite-level Manchester City form to the tournament backline. Ante Budimir's movement and Baturina's technical creativity are superior to what the Black Stars' back four has handled at this tournament so far — and the combination of Modrić's distribution and Ivan Perišić's deliveries from wide positions gives Croatia the set-piece and crossing threat that Ghana's defensive block has not yet been required to absorb from a team operating with this level of desperation.
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Ghana: Queiroz's Masterclass, Back-to-Back Clean Sheets, Draw Advances Them
Ghana frustrated England in their second match and will be looking to use a similar plan to stifle Croatia in Philadelphia. Ghana are unbeaten in their three games under Carlos Queiroz, and none of Ghana's last four games have featured more than two goals. The tactical identity Queiroz has installed — deep blocks, disciplined shape, rapid transitions through Semenyo and Williams — is one that has already neutralized England's attack for 90 minutes and kept Panama scoreless for the entire game before the late winner
Ghana's game plan writes itself: stay compact, hit on the counter, and trust that their pacey forwards can punish any Croatian over-commitment. Ghana's form is a study in resilience rather than flair. Their two competitive results in this tournament have been excellent — a clean sheet against England being the standout — but their attacking output of just one goal in two World Cup games is a concern. Carlos Queiroz has taken Ghana to the brink of qualification from an exceedingly tough group. With four points going into their final game and a goal difference of +1, Ghana can afford to lose this game by a goal and will still seal qualification to the knockouts — a mathematical cushion that gives Queiroz license to set up conservatively and absorb rather than chase.
Ghana have gone nine games without scoring a first-half goal — a pattern that tells the complete story of their tournament identity under Queiroz: absorb pressure throughout the first half, stay compact, and look for moments on the counter in the second period. Iñaki Williams and Antoine Semenyo might have to hold off on their attacking instincts, but Croatia's defense and midfield are not as watertight as they have been in previous tournament campaigns, and could find some joy down the wings if Ghana win the ball in good areas and transition at pace.
Croatia vs. Ghana Picks
- Match Result Pick: Croatia
Croatia to win is the headline pick, backed by their superior tournament pedigree and a Ghana side that has yet to score in their last two competitive outings against top opposition. With the Croatians needing all three points and Zlatko Dalic's side historically ruthless in must-win group games, that price carries genuine appeal for a side of their caliber. The 2018 runners-up and 2022 third-place finishers know how to produce in elimination football, and the desperation factor at Lincoln Financial Field will generate an attacking intensity that Ghana's controlled, draw-seeking approach has not yet been required to absorb for 90 minutes. Take Croatia to win.
- Over/Under Pick: Under 2.5 Goals
This pair have managed just ten shots on target between them in their four World Cup matches — a combined statistic that tells the complete story of what to expect in Philadelphia. Ghana have conceded zero goals in two matches and arrive needing only a point, structurally suppressing the likelihood of an open game. The under 2.5 goals line suits a Ghana side that has conceded zero goals in two matches and arrives with no need to chase the game. Croatia will create, probe, and eventually find the decisive moment — but a clean, high-scoring game is the least likely outcome between a pragmatic Queiroz defensive unit and a Croatian attack that was held to a single goal against Panama. Take the Under 2.5 goals
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