DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan Picks and Prediction for Saturday, June 27, 2026
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Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta hosts Group K's second Matchday 3 fixture at 7:30 PM ET as DR Congo and Uzbekistan close out their campaigns in a match of vastly different stakes. DR Congo sit third on one point after a battling 1-1 draw with Portugal and a narrow 1-0 defeat to Colombia, and must win to keep alive any hope of sneaking through as one of the best third-placed sides. Uzbekistan, beaten by both Colombia and Portugal, are already eliminated on their World Cup debut and play only for pride. A DR Congo win would take their points tally to four, which would put them among the best-ranked third-placed teams. Uzbekistan need a win and a big one too — they carry a -7 goal difference that makes meaningful advancement almost mathematically impossible. History will be made for at least one side in Atlanta: this is the first-ever competitive meeting between these two nations. Read on to find out who finishes third in Group K in our DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan prediction. Get our top World Cup Predictions and increase your bankroll!
DR Congo: Wissa and Bakambu Ready to Deliver
DR Congo head into the Uzbekistan fixture without any confirmed injury withdrawals from the squad. Captain Chancel Mbemba remains the commanding presence at center back, and his partnership with the experienced defenders around him has kept DR Congo competitive in both group games. Wissa, who scored the historic equalizer against Portugal, is expected to continue leading the attack, while the veteran Bakambu provides a danger from deeper positions and is closing in on a significant individual scoring milestone.
DR Congo have found success in their standard setup by playing a five-back, allowing only one late goal across the entire tournament. However, that defensive structure was designed specifically to counter the attacking force of both Colombia and Portugal, and they only managed to score one goal combined in those matches. A considerable win here is paramount, so Desabre may switch to a 4-4-2 against Uzbekistan with the same personnel in an attempt to generate more goals — a tactical adjustment that reflects the urgency of their third-place ambitions heading into the final matchday. The central contest is likely to come between Abbosbek Fayzullaev and DR Congo's holding midfield pairing of Samuel Moutoussamy and Charles Pickel. Fayzullaev has scored four goals across Uzbekistan's most recent run of competitive matches and grabbed their sole World Cup goal against Colombia, making him the primary creative outlet for Cannavaro's side. Moutoussamy and Pickel will aim to sit compact and deny Fayzullaev the space to turn and drive forward.
DR Congo's World Cup return after 52 years has been cautiously encouraging. Desabre's side drew 1-1 with Portugal in their opening fixture, Yoane Wissa scoring the historic first-ever World Cup goal for the nation, before a 1-0 defeat to Colombia. That sequence leaves them third but very much in the picture for a run at the knockout rounds via a third-place slot. Against a team as exposed defensively as Uzbekistan, they will expect to be dominant.
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Uzbekistan: Cannavaro's Sobering Education, Fayzullaev the Final Spark
Uzbekistan's debut at the World Cup finals has been a sobering education. Fabio Cannavaro's side conceded three to Colombia and then five to Portugal, leaving them with a -7 goal difference and no points going into this final group game. Abbosbek Fayzullaev scored their only goal of the tournament so far against Colombia, but the midfield has been overrun in both games and the back line has offered little resistance against quality opposition.
Uzbekistan have really had a rough time in this tournament with only four shots on target throughout both of their games. The Asian side only saw 33% possession combined, so now would be the time to improve ball security in an effort to create more chances. They require a massive multi-goal win to have any hope of being a third-place qualifying team, which is not likely. Captain Eldor Shomurodov, the team's all-time leading scorer with 44 international goals in 92 caps, and the exciting Abbosbek Fayzullaev represent the primary outlet going forward. But with a goal difference of -7 already, the numbers tell a stark story about their defensive fragility at this level.
Abdukodir Khusanov, the Manchester City center back who became the first Uzbek player ever to feature in the Premier League, anchors a defense that has been carved open repeatedly by top-tier opposition — and against a DR Congo attack motivated by survival rather than pride, the vulnerabilities that Portugal and Colombia exploited so ruthlessly will almost certainly be tested again. Uzbekistan set up in a three-back for both their games to this point and managed to score once, although this shape was not the best tactic to use against Portugal and Colombia considering they allowed eight goals. They will want to score here, so it is likely they will roll out a 3-4-3 shape once again — an aggressive setup that could open the game and create exactly the kind of end-to-end conditions in which DR Congo's wide attackers thrive.
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan Picks
- Match Result Pick: DR Congo
DR Congo are the stronger side on the evidence of this tournament, having already held Portugal to a draw, and with Uzbekistan shipping eight goals in two outings, the Congolese look the value pick to secure their first-ever World Cup win. The motivation gap is decisive: DR Congo are playing to survive and fighting for every point that keeps their best-third-place hopes alive, while Uzbekistan have already been eliminated and carry the psychological weight of consecutive heavy defeats. Wissa, Bakambu, and Bongonda against a defensive unit with a -7 goal difference and four shots on target across two games is the most straightforward attacking mismatch on the entire Saturday slate. Take DR Congo to win.
- Over/Under Pick: Over 2.5 Goals
The goals market is evenly priced at near-even odds, with both sides needing goals: DR Congo are chasing a win for survival, and Uzbekistan need to score for pride and points. Uzbekistan conceded five against Portugal and three against Colombia, meaning any game in which DR Congo create regular chances could end with a comfortable winning margin and goals on both sides of 2.5. DR Congo have the quality to press high and use wide areas through Wissa and Meschak Elia; Uzbekistan will look to hit quickly through Shomurodov and Fayzullaev — an open game between two teams committed to attacking play produces the conditions where the Over becomes not just possible but likely. With the Over 2.5 available at +102, the plus-money price on a match between a desperate team hunting a convincing result and a beaten team playing with nothing to lose is the natural home for the value. Take the Over 2.5 goals.
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