Everton vs Chelsea Picks and Predictions for Saturday October 17 2026
Everton welcomes Chelsea to Hill Dickinson Stadium in Liverpool on Saturday, October 17, 2026. Kickoff is at 7:30 AM ET, with USA Network and Universo carrying the match in the United States. Everton just drew 2-2 with Hull City, while Chelsea hammered Bournemouth 5-1. Chelsea is favored around +115, Everton is +215, and the draw is +270. The total is set at 2.5 goals. I’m taking Everton. Yeah, I know Chelsea just scored five. But have you noticed how many goals they’re giving up? Thirteen in six matches. Everton hasn’t lost yet, and David Moyes has his team playing some pretty stubborn football. I think Chelsea could have a tougher morning than the odds suggest.
Everton Are Making Themselves Hard To Beat
Everton is 2-4-0 and hasn’t lost a Premier League match this season. That’s a pretty good start, especially considering how many people were complaining about the club over the summer. The Toffees are also 2-1-0 at home. Their last match ended 2-2 against Hull City, and I imagine Moyes wasn’t thrilled about giving away two goals. Everton had beaten Ipswich 1-0 before that and played Tottenham to a scoreless draw. They’re not exactly blowing teams away. Four draws in six matches tells you that much. But they’re picking up points. Chelsea might have the bigger names, but Everton has been making opponents work for everything. I like that about this team.
The Toffees have scored eight goals and allowed five. That’s only 1.33 scored per match, so nobody’s confusing them with an offensive powerhouse. But five goals allowed in six games? I’ll take that defense. Everton has also kept three clean sheets. Chelsea hasn’t managed a single one. That’s a pretty big difference. The trouble is Everton sometimes spends too much time defending. They average around 47% possession, and that leaves plenty of work for the back line. Against Chelsea, they’re probably going to have to deal with a lot of pressure. But Chelsea has been giving up more than two goals a match. Everton doesn’t need 20 shots to score against a defense like that. A couple of good chances might be enough.
Thierno Barry leads Everton with three league goals. Three out of the team’s eight. He’s been doing his share. Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall has also been creating chances, with 14 through six matches. That’s important against a Chelsea side that keeps leaving openings. Jack Grealish gives Everton another player who can hold the ball and make defenders work. And Jordan Pickford has been a big reason that defensive record looks so good. Everton does have a few injury concerns. Vitalii Mykolenko has been dealing with a leg problem, and his availability is worth checking. The back line has been pretty steady otherwise, with James Tarkowski and Jarrad Branthwaite providing plenty of experience. I don’t expect Everton to spend the entire match attacking. That’s not really Moyes’ style. But I think they’ll get chances when Chelsea starts pushing forward.
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Chelsea Can Score But That Defense Is A Problem
Chelsea is 3-1-2 through six league matches and has picked up ten points, the same as Everton. The Blues are coming off a 5-1 win over Bournemouth, and that was quite a performance. Five goals! Jordan Henderson scored twice, João Pedro scored twice, and Chelsea looked dangerous every time it went forward. Before that, Chelsea lost 3-0 at Brentford. That’s what makes this team frustrating. One week they look terrific. The next week you’re wondering what happened. Xabi Alonso has plenty of attacking talent, but he hasn’t figured out how to keep things quiet at the other end. Chelsea has also beaten Arsenal and Brighton this season, so I’m not saying they’re a bad team. Far from it. They’re just giving opponents too many chances.
Chelsea has scored 15 goals in six league matches. That’s 2.5 per game. Pretty impressive. The problem is the 13 goals conceded. That’s 2.17 per match, and the Blues haven’t kept a clean sheet yet. Not one. They’re scoring enough to win most weeks, but they’re making life harder than necessary. Chelsea also isn’t dominating possession the way you might expect, sitting around 48%. Everton is close to that number. So I don’t think we’re looking at Chelsea controlling the ball for 75 minutes while Everton waits around. The Blues will get chances. They usually do. But Everton’s defense has been much better, and Chelsea’s back line has been giving up goals to just about everybody. That’s why I don’t love laying money on the visitors.
João Pedro has five league goals already. Five in six matches. He’s been excellent. Cole Palmer has three assists, and Chelsea has been getting good production from several different players. Henderson just scored twice against Bournemouth, while Pedro Neto gives the Blues another dangerous option out wide. There’s plenty of offense here. The injuries are worth checking, though. Jamie Gittens has an ankle problem, Reece James has been working back toward full fitness, and Moisés Caicedo has had some fitness concerns. Chelsea still has enough talent to win this match. Absolutely. But you can’t expect the forwards to score four or five every week just because the defense keeps giving goals away. Everton has been too organized for me to trust that happening Saturday.
Everton vs Chelsea Picks and Predictions
Moneyline Pick: Everton +215
I’m taking Everton at +215. Look, Chelsea has the better offense. Fifteen goals in six matches, and they just scored five against Bournemouth. I’m not arguing with that. But they’ve also allowed 13 goals and haven’t kept a clean sheet all season. Everton has given up five and hasn’t lost yet. Why am I getting more than two-to-one on the home team? That’s what interests me. Now, the four draws bother me. Everton has been good at avoiding losses, but winning is another matter. A 1-1 finish wouldn’t surprise me, and that would lose a straight moneyline bet. Chelsea could also make Everton pay if João Pedro gets a couple of good chances. He’s already scored five. But I like Moyes’ team at home. Everton has been defending better, and Chelsea has been making too many mistakes at the back. I’ll take a chance on the Toffees at +215.
Total Pick: Over 2.5 Goals (-147)
Give me Over 2.5 goals. Chelsea has scored 15 and conceded 13 in six matches. That’s 28 total goals in their games, more than four and a half per match. Pretty wild. Everton plays a much quieter style, and that’s the concern. The Toffees have already been involved in a scoreless draw and a couple of low-scoring games. Moyes would probably be delighted with another 1-0 win. But Chelsea has too much attacking talent for me to expect Everton to keep it completely quiet, and the Blues have been giving up goals every week. I think Everton gets a couple of chances against that defense. Chelsea should score, too. The price isn’t particularly generous at -147, and a cautious first half could make things uncomfortable. But I see both teams getting on the scoreboard. Something like 2-1 Everton makes sense to me. I’ll take the over.
Final Picks: Everton Moneyline +215 and Over 2.5 Goals (-147).
Disclaimer: This preview was prepared October 14, 2026. Betting odds, injuries, starting lineups and match information may change before kickoff. Soccer moneyline selections are settled on the result after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, including a draw as a separate outcome.
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