Germany vs. Paraguay Picks and Prediction for Monday, June 29, 2026
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Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts hosts the Round of 32's afternoon fixture at 4:30 PM ET as four-time world champions Germany take on Paraguay in a knockout clash with a potential Round of 16 date against France waiting on the other side. Germany topped Group E with six points, crushing Curaçao 7-1 before a dramatic 2-1 late comeback over Ivory Coast, but ended the group phase with a 2-1 defeat to a rotated Ecuador side, ending an 11-game winning streak. Paraguay arrive as one of the eight best third-placed sides, scraping through on four points with a goal difference of -2, losing 4-1 to the USA before consecutive clean sheets against Turkey (1-0) and Australia (0-0) secured their knockout berth. The two nations have met just once at a World Cup, a Round of 16 clash in 2002 that Germany won 1-0 in South Korea. Read on to find out who advances in our Germany vs. Paraguay prediction. Get our top World Cup Predictions and increase your bankroll!
Germany: Musiala and Wirtz Ready to Roar
Four days after being on the wrong end of a result against a South American team, Germany must now brace for another challenge from the continent in Foxborough. The Ecuador loss, which ended an 11-game winning streak, came in a heavily rotated lineup where Nagelsmann gave rest to key pieces heading into the knockout stage. The defeat stung from a headline perspective but carried zero tournament consequences, and the manner in which Germany's first-choice lineup dismantled Curaçao 7-1 and fought back to beat Ivory Coast 2-1 with a 94th-minute winner from Deniz Undav established the attacking quality that is now back on full display.
Germany's attacking trio of Florian Wirtz, Jamal Musiala, and Kai Havertz recorded the most combined shot-creating actions of any three players in Group E, a statistic that reflects the interchanging, fluid front three that Nagelsmann has built his tournament identity around. Germany had the joint-highest shots on target tally during the group stage at 7.3 per game, a volume of attacking production that Paraguay's backline, which allowed 32 Turkish attempts on goal in a single match, will be under extreme pressure to contain. Kimmich anchors the defensive midfield with the kind of positional intelligence that allows both Musiala and Wirtz the freedom to rotate between the lines, and the Joshua Kimmich-Antonio Pavlovic double pivot gives Germany the structural protection to attack with genuine commitment from the full-back positions.
Nico Schlotterbeck was ruled out of the tournament with an ankle injury, a personnel blow to the defensive depth, but Antonio Rüdiger and Jonathan Tah form a commanding center-back partnership, with Nathaniel Brown expected to be fit after nursing a muscle issue. Manuel Neuer, Leroy Sané, and Kai Havertz are all under pressure following the Ecuador defeat and will be motivated to respond with the kind of performance that silences the critics who pointed to Germany's inconsistency in the Matchday 3 rotation as a sign of vulnerability heading into the knockout rounds.
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Paraguay: Defensive Blueprint Earned Them This Stage
This is Paraguay's first World Cup appearance since 2010, when they were knocked out by eventual champions Spain in the quarter-finals in South Africa, a 16-year absence that makes their presence in Foxborough a genuine achievement for a program that had to grind through a difficult CONMEBOL qualifying campaign. Gustavo Alfaro's tactical pivot after the USA disaster was one of the tournament's great mid-campaign adjustments: switching to a far more conservative approach, deploying deep defensive blocks, and trusting the collective organization of Gustavo Gómez and Omar Alderete to protect the goal while Almirón and Enciso searched for moments on the counter.
The return of Miguel Almirón from suspension is expected to fundamentally alter Paraguay's attacking dynamic. He is their talisman, the creative force whose ability to run in behind, receive between the lines, and create from nothing gives Alfaro a counter-attacking threat that the Germany defensive structure will need to actively account for from the first whistle. Germany's last eight games have all seen over 2.5 goals, and Paraguay's Almirón creates the one scenario, the incisive counter-attack that bypasses Germany's defensive transition, where Foxborough could spring a surprise.
The bad news is compounding on other fronts. Diego Gómez is suspended after picking up his second yellow card of the tournament, stripping Paraguay of a key midfield engine just as the competition reaches its most demanding stage. Omar Alderete is also a doubt following a knee injury, creating potential instability in the very defensive partnership that has been Paraguay's most consistent strength across their three group games. Paraguay generated a paltry 1.1 expected goals across three group matches, the second-lowest attacking output of any team that advanced to the Round of 32, and the prospect of creating enough against Germany's first-choice defensive spine to produce a result is a very tall order even with Almirón back in the lineup.
Germany vs. Paraguay Picks
- Match Result Pick: Germany
Germany return to their first-choice lineup against an outmatched Paraguay side missing Diego Gómez through suspension, potentially without Alderete through injury, and carrying the worst expected goals total of any remaining team in the tournament. Ivory Coast and Ecuador both posed significantly greater attacking threats than anything Alfaro's side has shown across three World Cup games, and Germany handled both despite conceding in each match. Musiala and Wirtz against a Paraguay defensive mid-block that absorbed 32 Turkish shots without conceding is a quality mismatch that the knockout stage pressure will expose.
- Over/Under Pick: Over 2.5 Goals
Germany's last eight games have all produced over 2.5 goals, a statistical lean that runs directly through this tournament's group stage, where Die Mannschaft averaged over three goals per game in their two competitive wins. Paraguay's defensive resilience against Turkey and Australia was genuine, but both opponents had far less attacking quality than Germany's first-choice front three, and Almirón's return from suspension means Paraguay will carry an attacking threat that forces Germany's defensive line to stay honest rather than simply absorbing pressure. A Germany win in which they find multiple goals while Almirón creates an isolated counter-attacking moment for Paraguay is the most statistically probable outcome in Foxborough. Take the Over 2.5 goals.
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