Leeds United vs Crystal Palace Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Saturday September 19 2026
The Leeds United vs Crystal Palace matchup at Elland Road gives EPL picks bettors a clear look at a Leeds side in strong early-season form facing a Palace team that has struggled to keep teams off the scoresheet. Bettors looking for more angles across the weekend's slate can check our EPL predictions hub before kickoff.
TLDR: Quick Picks and Prediction
- Moneyline Pick: Leeds United -0.5 (-140)
- Total Pick: Over 2.5 (-135)
- Projected Final Score: Leeds United 3, Crystal Palace 1
Odds and Line Movement
Crystal Palace's moneyline has drifted from +349 up to +355 as the market has continued to shift toward Leeds throughout the betting window. The total has climbed from 2.5 (-134) up to 2.5 (-138), with the over drawing steady support as kickoff approaches. Below is the current market snapshot along with every tracked line movement entry.
Current Odds
| Market | Crystal Palace | Leeds United | Draw |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +355 | -130 | +281 |
| Total | 2.5 (Over -138 / Under +113) | ||
Line Movement - Moneyline
| Date | Crystal Palace | Leeds United | Draw |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/17 | +355 | -130 | +281 |
| 09/17 | +355 | -129 | +280 |
| 09/17 | +354 | -128 | +280 |
| 09/16 | +355 | -129 | +280 |
| 09/16 | +353 | -128 | +280 |
| 09/15 | +354 | -129 | +280 |
| 09/15 | +352 | -128 | +280 |
| 09/15 | +351 | -128 | +280 |
| 09/15 | +351 | -127 | +280 |
| 09/15 | +348 | -127 | +280 |
| 09/15 | +351 | -127 | +280 |
| 09/15 | +351 | -128 | +280 |
| 09/15 | +349 | -128 | +280 |
Line Movement - Total
| Date | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 09/17 | 2.5 (-138) | 2.5 (+113) |
| 09/17 | 2.5 (-137) | 2.5 (+113) |
| 09/17 | 2.5 (-138) | 2.5 (+114) |
| 09/17 | 2.5 (-136) | 2.5 (+112) |
| 09/15 | 2.5 (-135) | 2.5 (+111) |
| 09/15 | 2.5 (-134) | 2.5 (+110) |
| 09/15 | 2.5 (-135) | 2.5 (+111) |
| 09/15 | 2.5 (-134) | 2.5 (+110) |
| 09/15 | 2.5 (-135) | 2.5 (+112) |
| 09/15 | 2.5 (-134) | 2.5 (+111) |
Leeds United vs Crystal Palace: Key Matchups and Game Preview
Leeds United welcome Crystal Palace to Elland Road on Sunday in a matchup between a Leeds side carrying strong early-season form and a Palace team that has struggled defensively through its opening four Premier League matches. Leeds enter at 2-2-0 with eight points and are coming off an impressive 4-1 home win over Newcastle, a result that continued a solid opening stretch that also includes draws against Brighton and Brentford.
Leeds are averaging 1.75 goals per match while conceding only 0.75, compared with Palace at 1.50 scored and 2.75 allowed. The underlying numbers point in the same direction, with Leeds producing 1.65 expected goals per game and allowing 1.21 xGA for a +0.4 expected-goal differential, while Palace sit at 1.30 xG, 1.85 xGA and a -0.6 differential.
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Leeds United's Attacking Balance
Dominic Calvert-Lewin and Jayden Bogle have each scored twice for Leeds, while Anton Stach has also contributed offensively. Leeds have been notably stronger defensively, carrying an 83% save percentage and one clean sheet compared with Palace's 58% save rate and no clean sheets.
Crystal Palace's Defensive Issues
Palace have dangerous individual threats of their own, with Tyrick Mitchell scoring twice and Daichi Kamada supplying three assists, but the Eagles have lost three of their four league matches, including a 3-2 home defeat to Ipswich last time out. Palace's 11 goals conceded through four matches make them difficult to trust away from home.
LUFC vs CPFC Betting Trends
Leeds United Trends
- 2-2-0 with eight points through four matches
- Coming off a 4-1 home win over Newcastle
- 1.65 expected goals per game with a +0.4 xG differential
- 83% save percentage with one clean sheet
Crystal Palace Trends
- Lost three of four Premier League matches
- Lost 3-2 at home to Ipswich last time out
- 1.30 xG with a -0.6 expected-goal differential
- 58% save percentage with no clean sheets
LUFC and CPFC Key Injuries and Things To Know
Leeds Injuries
- Joe Rodon - hamstring injury, expected to be out eight to 10 weeks
- Mateo Joseph - knee issue
- Ilia Gruev - knee issue
Crystal Palace Injuries
- Ismaila Sarr - groin problem
- Dean Henderson - ankle injury
- Jean-Philippe Mateta - muscle issue
- Eddie Nketiah - listed on injury report
- Chadi Riad - listed on injury report
- Cheick Doucoure - listed on injury report
Leeds United vs Crystal Palace Side and Over/Under Picks
The market has Leeds around -130 on the moneyline and -0.5 at -140, with Palace +0.5 at even money and the total set at 2.5. With Leeds producing the better xG differential, defending more efficiently and coming off a dominant performance, the home side has the clearer edge, while Palace's defensive issues create enough scoring upside to support the over.
- Moneyline Pick: Leeds United -0.5 (-140)
- Total Pick: Over 2.5 (-135)
Leeds United vs Crystal Palace Final Score Prediction
- Leeds United: 3
- Crystal Palace: 1
Leeds' attacking balance through Calvert-Lewin, Bogle and Stach should be enough to control this game, while Palace's defensive frailties and Leeds' superior xG numbers point toward another comfortable home performance backed by a high-scoring final line.
How to Wager On Leeds United vs Crystal Palace
Bettors have a few clear angles to build around in this one: Leeds United -0.5, the total over 2.5, or pairing both given Leeds' strong early-season form and Palace's defensive struggles through four matches. For more tools before locking in a wager, our AI picks hub breaks down model-driven projections for this matchup and others on the board. You can also check our Dimers review and our Oddible review for a closer look at how each platform's numbers compare with the current market on Leeds United vs Crystal Palace.
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