Newcastle vs Liverpool Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Sunday August 23 2026
The Newcastle United vs Liverpool prediction for Sunday, August 23 headlines one of the most intriguing matches of the Premier League's opening weekend, with kickoff at St. James' Park set for 11:30 AM ET as both clubs debut new managers. Bettors looking for more value across the league can check out our full slate of EPL predictions before wagering on this one.
TLDR: Quick Picks and Prediction
- Side Pick: Liverpool -0.5 (-120)
- Total Pick: Under 3.5
- Projected Final Score: Liverpool 2, Newcastle United 1
Odds and Line Movement
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool | -110 | -0.5 (-120) | 3.5 (O +120 / U -150) |
| Newcastle United | +270 | +0.5 (-115) | |
| Draw | +300 |
Line Movement - Moneyline
| Date | Liverpool | Newcastle United | Draw |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/21 | -115 | +280 | +280 |
| 08/21 | -115 | +280 | +280 |
| 08/21 | -120 | +280 | +280 |
| 08/21 | -125 | +290 | +280 |
| 08/20 | -120 | +280 | +280 |
| 08/20 | -120 | +280 | +280 |
| 08/20 | -120 | +280 | +280 |
| 08/20 | +280 | ||
| 08/20 | +280 | ||
| 08/20 | -120 | +240 | +300 |
| 08/20 | -115 | +280 | +280 |
| 08/20 | -115 | +280 | +280 |
| 08/20 | -120 | +280 | +280 |
| 08/20 | +280 | ||
| 08/20 | +280 | ||
| 08/20 | +240 | ||
| 08/20 | +300 | ||
| 08/20 | -120 | +270 | +280 |
| 08/20 | -120 | +270 | +280 |
| 08/20 | -120 | +270 |
Line Movement - Total
| Date | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 08/19 | 3½o+118 | 3½u-144 |
| 08/19 | 3½o+122 | 3½u-150 |
| 08/16 | 3½o+118 | 3½u-144 |
| 08/11 | 3½o+120 | 3½u-148 |
| 07/09 |
Newcastle vs Liverpool Key Matchups and Game Preview
Isak's Return to St. James' Park
Isak's return to St. James' Park creates an obvious storyline, and Liverpool will need him to carry an even larger scoring burden following Mohamed Salah's departure and Hugo Ekitike's Achilles injury. His homecoming against the club he left adds an extra layer of intensity to this opening-weekend clash.
Newcastle United's Summer Turnover
Newcastle finished 12th last season and underwent major summer turnover, losing Bruno Guimaraes, Sandro Tonali and Anthony Gordon after Alexander Isak had already departed for Liverpool the previous year. That level of change leaves Matthias Jaissle with a very different squad than the one that finished last season.
Liverpool's Rebuild Around Wirtz
Liverpool finished fifth with 60 points and will be looking for a rebound season built around Isak and Florian Wirtz. That attacking pairing gives Andoni Iraola's new-look side a clear identity heading into the opener, even amid other roster and fitness questions.
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New Managers on Both Sides
Both clubs begin the new season under new managers, with Matthias Jaissle taking charge of Newcastle and Andoni Iraola replacing Arne Slot at Liverpool. That dual managerial change adds an extra layer of unpredictability to how each side approaches this opening match.
Newcastle's Midfield Injuries
Newcastle's injury situation further complicates an already difficult opener. Joelinton has been ruled out for at least the opening weeks with a groin injury, taking another experienced midfielder out of a unit already transformed by summer departures, while Tino Livramento remains unavailable with a calf problem.
Liverpool's Absences
Liverpool are also dealing with significant absences, including Ekitike, Conor Bradley and Giovanni Leoni because of knee injuries and Joe Gomez with a muscular issue. Curtis Jones is also unlikely to feature as he nears a move to Inter Milan, while Alexis Mac Allister has only recently returned following the World Cup.
Liverpool's Attacking Depth
Liverpool nevertheless have more proven attacking quality available, with Isak, Wirtz and Cody Gakpo capable of testing a Newcastle side that struggled defensively during preseason. That depth gives Liverpool an edge even with several key absences of its own.
Iraola's Record Against Newcastle
Liverpool also won 3-2 at St. James' Park in this matchup last season, and Iraola went unbeaten in six Premier League meetings with Newcastle during his time at Bournemouth. That history supports Liverpool as the more reliable side heading into this contest.
Newcastle's Home Support
Newcastle's home support should prevent this from becoming straightforward, but their midfield losses and current injury situation make it difficult to trust them against a deeper Liverpool attack over the course of 90 minutes.
Betting Trends: LIV vs NEW
The moneyline has moved modestly throughout the week, with Liverpool's price shifting between -115 and -125 at various points before settling near the current -110 number. Newcastle's price has fluctuated between +240 and +290, while the draw has held mostly steady between +270 and +300. On the total, the market has consistently favored the under, with pricing tightening from -144 up to as much as -150 in recent reporting windows.
Key Injuries and Things To Know: LIV vs NEW
- Joelinton has been ruled out for Newcastle for at least the opening weeks with a groin injury.
- Tino Livramento remains unavailable for Newcastle with a calf problem.
- Liverpool are without Ekitike, Conor Bradley and Giovanni Leoni because of knee injuries, and Joe Gomez has a muscular issue.
- Curtis Jones is unlikely to feature for Liverpool as he nears a move to Inter Milan.
- Alexis Mac Allister has only recently returned to Liverpool following the World Cup.
Newcastle vs Liverpool Side and Over/Under Picks
- Side Pick: Liverpool -0.5 (-120)
- Total Pick: Under 3.5
Newcastle's home support should prevent this from becoming straightforward, but their midfield losses and current injury situation make it difficult to trust them against a deeper Liverpool attack. With both clubs adjusting to new systems and Liverpool missing some attacking and defensive pieces, the elevated 3.5 total also favors a more controlled opener.
Final Score Prediction
Projected Final Score: Liverpool 2, Newcastle United 1
This projection reflects Isak's emotional return and Liverpool's deeper attacking options, balanced against Newcastle's home advantage and the disruption both sides are managing under new management. Liverpool's recent history at St. James' Park supports a narrow away win.
How to Wager On Liverpool vs Newcastle United
With the moneyline and total both moving throughout the week, comparing odds across multiple sportsbooks is worthwhile before locking in a number on this opening-weekend clash. Given the injury news on both sides, shopping for the best number on the under or Liverpool's spread could carry real value.
For additional tools before wagering on this matchup, check out our AI picks for model-based projections, read the Dimers review for a simulation-driven breakdown, or explore the Oddible review for another data-backed take on Liverpool vs Newcastle United.
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