Norway vs. France Picks and Prediction for Friday, June 26, 2026
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Gillette Stadium in Foxborough hosts the Group I finale at 3:00 PM ET as Norway and France meet in a historic first World Cup encounter between these two nations, a match that settles top spot in a group both sides have already clinched through. Norway have been outstanding, defeating Senegal 3-2 and Iraq 4-1 in their opening two fixtures, with Haaland scoring four goals in those two games. France have been equally impressive, having beaten Senegal 3-1 and Iraq 3-0 without looking troubled, with Kylian Mbappé also contributing four goals in the group stage. Both teams arrive on six points and both are through, but only a Norway win changes the group placings and prevents France from topping Group I for a fourth consecutive tournament. Read on to find out who takes the top spot in our Norway vs. France prediction. Get our top World Cup Predictions and increase your bankroll!
Norway: Haaland's Golden Boot Chase, Ødegaard the Creator, Two Injury Concerns
Norway's xG per shot of 0.19 leads all nations after the first two matchdays, with seven goals from just 25 attempts, a clinical efficiency that reflects how Solbakken has optimized the system around Haaland's dominant positioning. Haaland's 0.27 xG per shot leads all players with at least five shots at World Cup 2026, and he is tied with Mbappé with seven shots on target, both firmly entrenched in the Golden Boot race with four goals apiece. The prospect of that individual battle being played out on the same pitch at Gillette Stadium gives this dead-rubber match a level of individual stakes that keeps both players at maximum motivation regardless of the group-stage mathematics.
Julian Ryerson is set to miss out, affording an opportunity for Marcus Pedersen to make his first start of the tournament. Torbjørn Heggem was forced off against Senegal with an unspecified injury and could make way for Leo Østigård, two personnel adjustments that thin Norway's defensive cover on the right side but do not undermine the collective system Solbakken has built. Ødegaard's creativity is the key to unlocking a French defensive backline that has conceded precious little, making this a compelling tactical duel with real World Cup consequences still at stake. Ødegaard's ability to thread passes through tight defensive lines and arrive late into the penalty box from deep positions gives Norway the creative dimension that allowed them to find a way past Senegal's organized defensive structure in the group opener.
Norway were fortunate to get a victory over Senegal, the Lions of Teranga poured on the pressure, especially in the second half, pinning Norway back with 29% of their possession coming in the final third. Haaland's tremendous run on the counter-attack was enough to give Norway all three points, a result that exposed the extent to which Norway's game plan depends on minimizing possession while maximizing the quality of their counter-attacking moments. France, who press high and win the ball in dangerous areas, will present a fundamentally different defensive shape than Senegal or Iraq, and Solbakken's counter-attacking blueprint is most vulnerable against opponents who compress the space behind Norway's defensive line with technical superiority.
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France: Deschamps' Last Group Game, Mbappé and the Forward Line Humming
France arrive as one of the tournament's genuine title contenders, with Didier Deschamps confirming this will be the final tournament of his 13-year tenure as manager, a farewell that has given the entire squad a shared emotional motivation extending beyond individual ambition. France's defensive pedigree has been outstanding throughout the group stage, conceding just one goal across two matches, and the defensive quality against a Norway attack that has thrived against lower-ranked opponents is expected to tell in Foxborough.
William Saliba will know exactly how to handle Haaland. The two have had some very interesting battles in the Premier League while playing for Arsenal and Manchester City respectively, and that familiarity gives France's defense an edge that goes beyond pure defensive statistics into genuine psychological preparation. France's forward line has been clinical at this tournament, and they are also forcing mistakes and cashing in on them, with only Ecuador having more shots direct from high turnovers, a pressing efficiency that will test Norway's build-up play from the first whistle.
Deschamps is expected to name a full-strength lineup with Mbappé leading the attack, Olise and Doué providing width, and Tchouaméni sitting deep to screen the defensive line, a selection that signals the head coach's desire to maintain momentum and avoid any complacency heading into the Round of 32. Mbappé has scored four goals in two appearances and leads a front line that includes Ousmane Dembélé, Bradley Barcola, and Michael Olise, a width of attacking options that forces Norway's back line to defend across the full pitch simultaneously, leaving the central space that Mbappé's diagonal runs exploit most lethally. Mbappé is the natural pick in any scorer market here, given his movement into the channels and the consistency with which he has converted across this group stage, four goals from two matches is the form line of a player building toward a tournament-winning performance.
Norway vs. France Picks
- Match Result Pick: France
France are the better team by a clear margin, with a front line that should overwhelm a Norway defense that has to push up and play, and this projects as a 3-1 result in Deschamps' favor. The Saliba-Haaland battle gives Norway their best chance of a decisive individual moment, but Saliba's familiarity with Haaland from Premier League battles at Arsenal and Manchester City represents genuine defensive preparation that goes beyond tactical homework, the Arsenal center-back knows exactly how the Norwegian operates in the box and will have prepared specifically for his runs and aerial threat. France's pressing quality, their midfield control through Tchouaméni and Rabiot, and the depth of their attacking rotation make them the comfortable side to back at -136. Take France to win.
- Over/Under Pick: Over 2.5 Goals
With Haaland and Mbappé both on four goals and firmly entrenched in the Golden Boot race, this simply cannot be a low-scoring affair, the individual stakes for both players in a match where their teams are already qualified drives both toward maximum attacking intent from first whistle to last. Both nations love to run at their opponents, with forwards who are clinical and need just a sliver of daylight to find the back of the net, the tactical setup of two pressing sides who attack through wide channels creates natural space in behind defensive lines that elite forwards exploit.
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