Nottingham Forest vs Leeds United Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Saturday August 22 2026
Nottingham Forest open the 2026-27 Premier League season at home against Leeds United on Saturday, and the betting market gives the hosts a modest edge in what should be a competitive matchup at the City Ground. For more angles on today's slate, check out these EPL predictions before finalizing your card. Below we break down the odds, the line movement, the injuries and the matchup notes shaping our side and total picks for this Premier League opener.
TLDR: Quick Picks and Prediction
- Moneyline Pick: Nottingham Forest -0.5 (+115)
- Total Pick: Under 2.5 (-115)
- Final Score Prediction: Nottingham Forest 1, Leeds United 0
Odds and Line Movement
Forest are priced around +130 on the moneyline, with Leeds +215 and the draw +240, while Nottingham Forest -0.5 is available at +115 and Leeds +0.5 is heavily juiced at -160. The total is set at 2.5 goals, with the Under around -115. Below is the current market along with how the line has moved leading into kickoff.
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline |
|---|---|
| Leeds United | +210 |
| Nottingham Forest | +130 |
| Draw | +230 |
| Total | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2½o-106 | 2½u-114 |
Line Movement - Moneyline
| Date | Leeds United | Nottingham Forest | Draw |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/20 | +210 | +130 | +230 |
| 08/20 | +130 | ||
| 08/20 | +230 | ||
| 08/20 | +210 | +125 | +230 |
| 08/20 | +210 | +125 | +230 |
| 08/20 | +210 | +125 | +230 |
| 08/19 | +200 | +125 | +240 |
| 08/19 | +200 | +125 | +240 |
| 08/17 | +210 | +125 | +230 |
| 08/17 | +210 | +125 | +230 |
| 08/17 | +210 | +125 | +230 |
| 08/17 | +210 | +125 | +230 |
| 08/17 | +210 | +125 | +230 |
| 08/17 | +210 | +125 | +230 |
| 08/17 | +210 | +125 | +230 |
| 08/17 | +210 | +125 | +230 |
| 08/17 | +210 | +125 | +230 |
| 08/17 | +210 | +125 | +230 |
| 08/17 | +210 | +125 | +230 |
| 08/17 | +210 | +125 | +230 |
| 08/17 | +210 | +125 | +230 |
| 08/14 | +200 | +125 | +240 |
Line Movement - Total
| Date | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 08/17 | 2½o-106 | 2½u-114 |
| 08/11 | 2½o-110 | 2½u-110 |
| 07/23 | ||
| 07/22 | 2½o-120 | 2½u-102 |
| 07/12 | 2½o-122 | 2½u+100 |
| 07/09 |
Nottingham Forest vs Leeds United Key Matchups and Game Preview
Nottingham Forest's New Era
Forest finished 16th last season after a turbulent campaign but ended strongly and now begin a new era under Oliver Glasner, whose structured approach should provide greater defensive stability.
Leeds United's Summer Buildup
Leeds finished 14th with 47 points in their first season back in the Premier League and have strengthened considerably, most notably adding goalkeeper James Trafford and defender Tarik Muharemovic.
Sign Up Get $30 Premium Picks Credit + Exclusive Offers
Subscribe Now
Leeds United's Preseason Form
Daniel Farke's side also produced an encouraging preseason, beating Liverpool 4-2, RB Leipzig 2-0 and Augsburg 4-0 while drawing 1-1 with Manchester United.
Calvert-Lewin Leads Leeds' Attack
Dominic Calvert-Lewin remains the focal point after scoring 14 Premier League goals last season, with Harry Wilson and Brenden Aaronson providing additional creativity.
Forest's Attacking Options
Forest counter with Morgan Gibbs-White as their primary attacking creator, while Igor Jesus and Chris Wood offer options through the middle.
Leeds United's Injury Concerns
Availability could influence the matchup significantly. Leeds are expected to be without Gabriel Gudmundsson and Wilfried Gnonto because of hamstring injuries, while midfielder Ilia Gruev continues his recovery from a knee problem.
Forest's Fitness Uncertainty
Forest have also carried fitness uncertainty surrounding Wood, Ola Aina, Callum Hudson-Odoi and Nicolò Savona, which could force Glasner to adjust his attacking or wing-back options.
Recent meetings have been competitive: Forest won 3-1 at the City Ground last season before Leeds answered with a 3-1 victory at Elland Road.
Betting Trends - NFO vs LEE
The moneyline has held fairly steady, with Forest moving between +125 and +130 and Leeds fluctuating between +200 and +210 over the past several days, while the draw has bounced between +230 and +240. Public tickets have consistently favored NOTTINGHAM across the available reports. The total has climbed noticeably, moving from 2½o-122 in mid-July up to the current 2½o-106, showing a clear shift toward the Under as kickoff approaches.
Leeds United Injury Notes
With Gabriel Gudmundsson and Wilfried Gnonto both dealing with hamstring injuries and Ilia Gruev still working back from a knee problem, Leeds' depth is reduced heading into this opener.
Key Injuries and Things To Know - NFO vs LEE
- Leeds United: Gabriel Gudmundsson and Wilfried Gnonto are expected to be out with hamstring injuries.
- Leeds United: Ilia Gruev continues his recovery from a knee problem.
- Nottingham Forest: Chris Wood, Ola Aina, Callum Hudson-Odoi and Nicolò Savona have carried fitness uncertainty.
- Forest won 3-1 at the City Ground last season before Leeds answered with a 3-1 win at Elland Road.
Nottingham Forest vs Leeds United Side and Over/Under Picks
Nottingham Forest on the Moneyline
Leeds' strong summer form makes laying -0.5 with Forest somewhat risky, but home field and Glasner's defensive organization still give the hosts a narrow advantage, making Nottingham Forest -0.5 (+115) the preferred side.
Leeds United and the Total
The total is my preferred betting angle because both managers have reasons to prioritize structure in a season opener, and only two of Forest's final five preseason matches went Over 2.5 goals.
- Moneyline: Nottingham Forest -0.5 (+115)
- Total: Under 2.5 (-115)
Final Score Prediction
Prediction: Nottingham Forest 1, Leeds United 0, making Under 2.5 (-115) the strongest bet and Nottingham Forest -0.5 (+115) the preferred side for this Premier League opener.
- Final Score: Nottingham Forest 1, Leeds United 0
- Winning Side: Nottingham Forest -0.5 (+115)
- Total Result: Under 2.5 (-115)
How to Wager On Nottingham Forest vs Leeds United
Bettors looking to shop the market on this Nottingham Forest vs Leeds United opener should compare moneyline and total pricing across multiple books, since the line movement above shows real swings on both sides leading into kickoff. For bettors who want additional tools to sharpen their process on games like this one, these resources can help round out your card:
Up To $1500 in Bonus Bets Paid Back if your First Bet Does Not Win
New Users – Bet $5 Get $200 in Bet Reset Tokens for 5 Days
New DraftKings Customers: Spend $5+ Get $150 in Bonus Bets *Paid Within 14 Days
- AI picks for data-driven picks across today's slate
- Dimers review for a look at model-based projections
- Oddible review for another AI-driven angle on this matchup
