Panama vs. Croatia Picks and Prediction for Tuesday, June 23, 2026
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BMO Field in Toronto, the very same pitch where Panama fell 1-0 to Ghana five days earlier, hosts Group L's most urgent fixture as Panama and Croatia meet in what is effectively a knockout game at 7:00 PM ET. Both sides arrive with zero points after Matchday 1 defeats, the loser here faces near-certain elimination with England and Ghana already sitting on three points apiece, and even a draw leaves both sides needing a miracle combination of results on the final matchday. This is a World Cup elimination game in all but name, played in the shadow of the CN Tower with Lake Ontario beyond the stands, and everything is on the line for two proud football nations with very different histories on this stage. Read on to find out who stays alive in our Panama vs. Croatia prediction. Get our top World Cup Predictions and increase your bankroll!
Croatia are installed as clear favorites at -180, with Panama available at +620 and the draw at +310.
Croatia: Modrić's Legacy Under Threat, Dalic Needs a Tactical Reset
Croatia stood toe-to-toe with England in the first half of their opener before the years in some of their key players' legs began to tell, as England ratcheted up the intensity with attacking substitutions and increased tempo, Croatia's midfield were taken apart, and that will be a big cause of concern for Zlatko Dalic. Martin Baturina of Como and Petar Sučić of Inter Milan both impressed with their attacking play, and Petar Musa added a goal, showing Croatia can generate genuine offense even against top-tier opposition, but the four-goal haul against them exposed defensive vulnerabilities that Dalic must address before Toronto.
The great Luka Modrić, 40, barely lasted an hour and cut a tired figure for most of that time. His role against Panama is the central tactical question Dalic faces, whether to start his captain and manage his minutes, or rest him and trust the next generation of Luka Sučić and Baturina to carry the creative burden. Modric and Kovacic, both with extensive European club experience, are among the most technically accomplished central midfielders in this tournament, and their ability to control tempo and find runners in behind will be the primary mechanism through which Croatia create chances.
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Croatia's qualifying record of seven wins and one draw underscores the class that was absent against England, and Andrej Kramarić, their most clinical finisher with 36 international goals from 116 caps, leads the scoring charts and gives Dalic a penalty box threat that has been among the most reliable in European football for the better part of a decade. Ivan Perišić assisted Musa's goal against England and remains Croatia's chief creative outlet from wide areas and on set pieces, while Joško Gvardiol anchors the defense after returning from five months out, a defensive spine that, when firing, is considerably more organized than the England scoreline suggested.
Panama: Dominant in Possession, Zero in Goals
Against Ghana, Panama controlled large swathes of possession, completing an impressive 502 passes, yet could not convert that dominance into a goal and lost 1-0. The numbers were surprising, Panama romped down the wings, dominated possession at 62%, took more shots than Ghana at 11 vs 7, and had more touches in the opposition box, yet walked away with nothing. It is the most frustrating profile in football: a team that does everything except score, playing a must-win match against Croatia's experienced and technically polished midfield.
Captain Aníbal Godoy anchors a workmanlike midfield, but Panama's attacking options have been limited against quality European opposition, and they are yet to score a goal at this tournament. Adalberto Carrasquilla, who carries a groin injury into this fixture that clouds his fitness, is Panama's most naturally gifted creator and the player most capable of unlocking a Croatian defensive structure with incisive passing in tight spaces. José Fajardo and Cecilio Waterman lead the attack as Panama's primary goal threats, but neither has managed a shot on target in the tournament so far.
The defenders around them tell a better story. Panama's backline of Murillo, Escobar, Davis, and Córdoba is physically imposing and collectively organized, a unit that kept Ghana at bay for 94 minutes before conceding the only goal to a tap-in, and Livakovic's Croatia will need sustained quality to break them down. Panama make only their third World Cup appearance in 2026, but their physical, hard-running style and CONCACAF tournament pedigree, back-to-back Gold Cup finals and a CONCACAF Nations League final in recent cycles, makes them competitive opponents who have earned this stage rather than simply arrived on it.
Panama vs. Croatia Picks
- Match Result Pick: Croatia
Croatia are a side that reached the 2018 World Cup final and finished third in 2022, a group-stage exit would be a historic underperformance that Dalic and the entire Croatian football federation simply cannot accept. Modrić will be managed carefully, but Kovačić, Baturina, Sučić, Kramarić, and Perišić give Croatia more than enough to break down a Panama side that has yet to score and whose most creative midfielder is carrying a fitness concern. Panama's possession dominance against Ghana was impressive, but Croatia's midfield quality means that ball won't come as freely in Toronto. Take Croatia to win and stay alive in Group L.
- Over/Under Pick: Under 2.5 Goals
Panama's conservative defensive structure and their failure to score in their opening game points to a tight affair, Croatia may win without needing to open up entirely, and a 1-0 or 2-0 scoreline is more likely than a high-scoring affair. Eight of Ghana's last 11 matches have yielded no more than two goals, a data point that reflects Queiroz's defensive philosophy, and Panama's own backline showed similar stinginess in holding Ghana scoreless for 94 minutes. Croatia's defensive vulnerabilities against England were partly a product of facing one of the tournament's best attacks in an open game, against a Panama side that sits deeper and defends first, the dynamic will be tighter and more controlled throughout. Take the Under 2.5 goals
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