Paraguay vs. Australia Picks and Prediction for Thursday, June 25, 2026
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Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara hosts the Group D decider at 10:00 PM ET as Paraguay and Australia go head-to-head for the second and final knockout-round spot behind hosts the United States. Australia sit second in Group D on three points with a goal difference of zero, while Paraguay are third on three points but with a goal difference of -2. Victory for Australia would secure qualification to the Round of 16 regardless of what happens elsewhere. Paraguay must win to keep their hopes alive and will also need results to go their way, making this effectively a knockout fixture. Paraguay are seeking their first knockout-round appearance since their quarter-final run at the 2010 World Cup, a 16-year wait. Australia, meanwhile, are chasing a third trip to the Round of 16 after their breakthroughs in 2006 and 2022. One of them advances tonight in one of the most consequential fixtures on the entire Matchday 3 slate. Read on to find out who books their Round of 32 ticket in our Paraguay vs. Australia prediction. Get our top World Cup Predictions and increase your bankroll!
Paraguay are priced at +195 to win, with the draw at +126 and Australia at +300.
Paraguay: Alfaro Needs a Win, But Almirón Is Suspended
Paraguay come into this game buoyed by a remarkable win over Türkiye, one in which they played the entire second half with ten men after Miguel Almirón became the first player to be sent off for covering his mouth while speaking mid-confrontation. That 1-0 result against a side that failed to score in either of their World Cup matches gave Paraguay the three points they needed to arrive in Santa Clara with a fighting chance, but the tournament has now delivered a brutal personnel blow that fundamentally alters how Gustavo Alfaro deploys his side.
Miguel Almirón is suspended after his red card against Türkiye, the loss of the most experienced and technically gifted midfielder in the Paraguayan squad at the worst possible moment. Almirón's running between the lines is the most likely Paraguayan path to a breakthrough, his ability to turn a defensive structure into a transition opportunity is exactly the weapon this kind of cagey fixture calls for, and without him, Alfaro must find alternative creative solutions in a midfield that already struggles for quality beyond the Atlanta United captain. Julio Enciso is expected to start alongside Isidro Pitta up front, with Diego Gómez, Andrés Cubas, and Matías Galarza tasked with controlling the engine room in Almirón's absence.
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Paraguay's main strength is usually their defence, they conceded just ten goals in 18 qualifying matches, but they shipped four goals against the USA and allowed Türkiye to rack up 32 shots in a match they barely survived. The defensive durability that Alfaro has built this cycle is real, but it requires the midfield to protect the back line, and without Almirón's pressing, that protection is considerably diminished against an Australian side with pace and direct running through Irankunda and Volpato.
Australia: Leckie Out, Irankunda Returns
Matthew Leckie has a hamstring strain which has ruled him out, with Cristian Volpato expected to come into the starting lineup in his place, a personnel blow that removes one of Australia's most experienced wide options but opens the door for a technically gifted replacement with Champions League experience at Roma. Popovic decided to drop Nestory Irankunda against the USA, a decision he regretted, but with second spot up for grabs, expect the lively attacker to start in Santa Clara. Irankunda's pace, directness, and the sheer unpredictability of a 20-year-old who scored Australia's first goal of the tournament against Türkiye gives the Socceroos a counter-attacking weapon that Paraguay's reorganized midfield, missing Almirón's energy and intelligence, will struggle to account for.
Australia were outclassed by the USA last time out but they face a Paraguay side who struggle to score goals and are without their main playmaker, a combination that plays directly into Popovic's hands. Harry Souttar, the towering center-back, is Australia's most credible aerial threat at the other end, and his presence will be central to keeping a Paraguay attack featuring Enciso and Pitta quiet while giving the Socceroos an additional set-piece danger at the other end. Patrick Beach keeps goal after his record-breaking performance against Türkiye, providing the shot-stopping confidence that the entire back five operates in front of.
Australia's AFC qualifying record, four wins from four, including results against Japan and Saudi Arabia, suggests a team capable of managing high-pressure games. Australia have never lost to Paraguay across their five previous encounters, winning two and drawing three, a head-to-head edge that carries limited weight in competitive terms but adds a small psychological layer of confidence to a side that already holds the superior goal difference and needs only a draw to advance.
Paraguay vs. Australia Picks
- Match Result Pick: Draw
Alfaro's side must attack, which exposes them to Irankunda's pace on the counter, but without Almirón threading passes between the lines, manufacturing the goal they need becomes an increasingly difficult proposition. Australia, knowing a draw advances them, will sit in their disciplined 5-4-1 and make Paraguay work for everything, and Paraguay's recent history of winning ugly (1-0 over Türkiye with ten men) rather than opening games up suggests the scoreline will stay tight. Without their main playmaker, Paraguay could struggle to create meaningful opportunities, meaning Popovic's troops should pick up a point at least, and both teams advancing on four points is a genuine possibility if the match settles into the kind of conservative, low-event contest both these defensive identities naturally produce. Take the draw at plus money.
- Over/Under Pick: Under 2 Goals
Neither team is known for their goalscoring exploits, Paraguay scored 14 goals in qualifying, while Australia could manage only 16. The best over 2 goals price is 5/4 and under 2 goals is 4/6, and the structural case for the Under is airtight. Paraguay's Almirón suspension removes their most productive creative outlet; Australia's five-man defensive block has shown the capacity to absorb pressure and limit clear-cut chances to almost nothing against Türkiye; and both managers will be acutely aware that conceding multiple goals could cost them in the goal difference tiebreaker even if they earn the point needed to advance. A tight, cagey affair decided by a single goal, or perhaps no goals at all, is the most structurally sound prediction for Santa Clara. Take the Under 2 goals.
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