Tunisia vs. Netherlands Picks and Prediction for Thursday, June 25, 2026
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Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City hosts the Group F finale at 6:00 PM ET as Tunisia and Netherlands meet in a dead rubber of dramatically contrasting emotional stakes. Netherlands sit top of Group F on four points after a draw with Japan and a 5-1 demolition of Sweden, with Cody Gakpo and Brian Brobbey each scoring twice in that rout. Tunisia are bottom with zero points and a goal difference of -8, having lost both of their opening matches and been eliminated from knockout contention. For the Dutch, the challenge is to keep feet on the gas and take on the challenges that lie ahead, topping the group is the primary aim, with Japan level on points in second place. For Tunisia, captain Ellyes Skhiri has already issued a public apology to the nation after their tournament performance, and Hervé Renard, the emergency appointment who replaced the sacked Sabri Lamouchi — has one final match to restore some dignity to the Tunisian exit. Read on to find out how this Group F finale unfolds in our Tunisia vs. Netherlands prediction. Get our top World Cup Predictions and increase your bankroll!
Netherlands are prohibitive favorites at -670, with Tunisia available at +2300 and the draw at +850
Netherlands: Gakpo and Brobbey on Fire, Koeman Eyes Group Glory
Netherlands top Group F and need only a draw to be sure of going through, while Tunisia, beaten heavily in both games and already eliminated, are playing for pride. This is about the Dutch finishing the job. The 5-1 dismantling of Sweden was the group stage's most emphatic statement performance from any side not named Germany, and the attacking combination that Koeman has developed between Gakpo and Brobbey has been the tournament's most productive strike partnership through two matchdays.
Cody Gakpo has 21 international goals in 50 caps and has been one of the most dangerous wide forwards in this tournament. With Tunisia's defence already under severe strain, Koeman's attack will rotate heavily and Gakpo will find space early. Ryan Gravenberch and Tijjani Reijnders, both at the peak of their form at Liverpool and Manchester City respectively, drive the midfield press, a pair who, alongside Frenkie de Jong's deeper distribution, gives Netherlands the most technically accomplished central unit in Group F by a considerable margin. Koeman will want to top the group, and with Netherlands level with Japan on points, goal difference matters, the seven goals they've scored compared to Japan's six is what keeps the Dutch at the top of Group F for now.
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The one legitimate concern heading into Kansas City is Dutch finishing efficiency. The Netherlands' final home friendly before the tournament ended in a 0-1 loss to Algeria at De Kuip, where the Dutch generated roughly 2.2 xG to Algeria's 0.5, hit the woodwork through Donyell Malen, had a Tijjani Reijnders effort disallowed for offside, and still lost to an 86th-minute curler. That Algeria result was an extreme rotation game, and the form since, seven goals in two competitive matches, has answered those concerns convincingly. Memphis Depay has ten goals across recent international appearances, making him the standout anytime scorer option in this fixture if Koeman opts to rest Brobbey and give Memphis his showcase moment against an already-eliminated opponent.
Tunisia: Pride on the Line
Tunisia have lost both of their Group F matches, conceding nine goals in the process, and are already eliminated from knockout contention regardless of this result. Their sole tournament goal came from centre-back Omar Rekik against Japan. The scale of the implosion between qualification, a defensive record that saw them go through ten CAF qualifying matches without conceding a single goal, and the tournament itself represents one of the starkest drops in performance from any team at this World Cup.
Ellyes Skhiri, with 83 caps and seasoned by Bundesliga football at Eintracht Frankfurt, anchors the defensive midfield as Tunisia's organisational spine, the midfielder whose positioning tightens the gaps between Tunisia's lines and forces opponents wide. Hannibal Mejbri at Burnley offers the most dangerous counter-attacking outlet, capable of carrying the ball through transition and creating something from broken moments.
Tunisia's form across the last five matches tells a consistent story: four defeats, one draw, and seventeen goals conceded without a single clean sheet. If Skhiri cannot impose himself on the Dutch midfield, Gravenberch and Reijnders will dictate territory, create overloads in wide areas, and service Gakpo and Malen at will, a structural dominance that has been the defining pattern of Netherlands' entire tournament campaign. Renard's ability to organize a defensive structure quickly, demonstrated in Saudi Arabia's famous 2022 shock win over Argentina, gives Tunisia their only realistic hope of keeping this competitive, but the personnel and the psychological state of this squad represent a fundamentally different challenge from the organized Saudi unit he had in Doha.
Tunisia vs. Netherlands Picks
- Match Result Pick: Netherlands -1.5
Stake half a unit and take the Netherlands to win comfortably. The goal difference incentive gives Koeman's side extra motivation to press for a convincing margin rather than manage the game to a tidy 1-0 finish, and a Netherlands win to nil is the standout angle given Tunisia's inability to score in two of their last three matches and a concession tally of nine goals in two World Cup games.
- Over/Under Pick: Over 3 Goals
The Over 3 goals line at +100 offers value on a match profile that strongly favors a high-scoring Dutch performance. Netherlands have scored seven goals in two group games, while Tunisia have conceded nine. Both of Tunisia's World Cup games have produced at least five goals combined, and the Dutch attack has been direct and prolific, even with some rotation there is sufficient quality to drive the total beyond 3.
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