USA vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina World Cup Prediction — Wednesday, July 1, 2026
Use Code PPWC
Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, California hosts the Round of 32 at 8:00 PM ET as the co-host United States take on Bosnia and Herzegovina, with the winner advancing to face Belgium or Senegal in the Round of 16 in Seattle. The USMNT went 2-0-1 in group play to win Group D with six points, while the Bosnians finished third in Group B on four points after a 3-1 win over Qatar, a 1-1 draw with Canada, and a 4-1 loss to Switzerland. This is the first time Bosnia and Herzegovina have made the knockout stages of a major tournament as an independent nation, and every minute they play in Santa Clara is historic. For the USA, the co-hosts have not won a World Cup knockout game since 2002, a drought that makes this the most pressure-loaded fixture in American soccer history. Read on to find out who advances in our USA vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina prediction. Get our top World Cup Predictions and increase your bankroll!
USA: Pulisic Returns, Pochettino Reverts to First Choice, Nation Holds Its Breath
Mauricio Pochettino's side won their group with 4-1 and 2-0 wins over Paraguay and Australia respectively in their first two games, which guaranteed they'd top Group D. Pochettino made a raft of changes for an inconsequential third group game against Turkey, which the USA lost 3-2 after Kaan Ayhan scored the winner with the last kick of the game. The rotation was tactical and deliberate, and it leaves the USA's best lineup fresher and more rested than any opponent who played meaningful minutes on Matchday 3.
Captain Christian Pulisic is the man they will look to step up in Santa Clara. The USA have goals through Folarin Balogun and creativity through Weston McKennie and Pulisic. Folarin Balogun is the hosts' first-choice striker, with two goals in the group stage off an xG of 0.88 and three shots on target, their most reliable finisher. Weston McKennie is the engine of the team, carrying a tournament-high xA of 1.54 and an xG of 1.04 from midfield, creating more than anyone else in this game.
After resting players against Turkey, Pochettino is expected to revert to his strongest lineup. Malik Tillman has graded out as one of the standout players of the entire group stage, and his creative energy alongside McKennie and Pulisic gives the USA a midfield trio capable of breaking down even the most disciplined defensive structure. Both the USA's and Bosnia and Herzegovina's games have been open and exciting, with a combined 23 goals across their group stages, which sets a high-energy backdrop for what should be the loudest atmosphere of any remaining World Cup fixture on US soil.
Sign Up Get $30 Premium Picks Credit + Exclusive Offers
Subscribe Now
Bosnia and Herzegovina: Dzeko Still Searching, Bajraktarević the Wild Card
Bosnia and Herzegovina made this World Cup on their ability to be strong defensively and effective on the counter-attack. That went away for a while against the Swiss, even though that game was also hugely influenced at the end by a red card to center-back Tarik Muharemović. Bosnia conceded three times after that red card, having frustrated the Swiss for large parts before that. In Esmir Bajraktarević and Kerim Alajbegović, they have two pacey, tricky wingers, and in Ermedin Demirović and Edin Džeko, two strikers who know the route to goal.
Captain Edin Džeko hasn't scored yet at this tournament, but Ermin Mahmić already has two goals to his name, and winger Kerim Alajbegović was also on target against Qatar. Džeko's role is less about scoring and more about the hold-up play and link-up work that allows Bosnia's counter-attacking transitions to function at pace, his movement and experience give Bajraktarević and Demirović the focal point they need when the USA overcommit forward. Bosnia sit 59th in the ELO ratings, behind the likes of Cape Verde and Panama, and their group-stage scoring was somewhat flattering, five goals off under two expected goals, most of it in the Qatar rout. That kind of finishing regresses.
Bosnia's defense has holes in it, as the nation has conceded in 11 of its last 12 matches across all competitions. Bosnia and Herzegovina have also conceded in all six of their World Cup matches in team history. The Muharemović suspension depleted their defensive depth against Switzerland, and while he is expected to be back available, the structural vulnerabilities exposed by the Swiss press, the same high-tempo, wide-overload pressing system Pochettino runs, gives the USA a clear tactical blueprint for how to break them down.
USA vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina Picks
- Match Result Pick: USA
On home soil, with the better players and the louder crowd, the USA should have too much for a Bosnia side that has struggled to score. Expect a controlled performance rather than a thriller, with the hosts managing the tie and Bosnia chasing late. Pulisic at full fitness, McKennie as the tournament's most creative midfielder, and Balogun's clinical finishing against a Bosnia defense that has conceded in 11 of their last 12 matches across all competitions is the matchup formula that points clearly toward a US victory on home soil. Take the USA to finally end their 24-year knockout drought.
- Over/Under Pick: Over 2.5 Goals
Both teams have scored in 11 of Bosnia's last 12 matches across all competitions, and the USA's group-stage games averaged four goals per match, a pace that has consistently pushed totals over even in games where defensive structure was in place. Bosnia and Herzegovina are strong in attack through Demirović and Alajbegović, so this could be an entertaining game rather than a grinding affair. The USA's defensive third is their acknowledged weakness, they have kept just one clean sheet over their last 11 matches, meaning Bosnia will find moments even as the Americans control territory. A 2-1 or 3-1 USA win is the most probable scoreline in Santa Clara, and the Over 2.5 goals at plus money is the value play to pair with backing the hosts to advance.
Up To $1500 in Bonus Bets Paid Back if your First Bet Does Not Win
New Users – Bet $5 Get $200 in Bet Reset Tokens for 5 Days
New DraftKings Customers: Spend $5+ Get $200 in Bonuses Instantly!
