USA vs. Türkiye Picks and Prediction for Thursday, June 25, 2026
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SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles hosts the Group D finale at 10:00 PM ET as the United States and Türkiye close out what has been the tournament's most one-sided group in terms of early form. The United States enter Matchday 3 already through to the Round of 16 after back-to-back wins, a 4-1 demolition of Paraguay followed by a controlled 2-0 victory over Australia, and a win here would secure top spot in Group D. For Türkiye, the mathematics are brutal: two defeats and no goals scored means this is effectively a knockout game, with a win the only result that keeps qualification hopes alive and a draw almost certainly not enough given the goal difference deficit. Türkiye's most recent meeting with the USA came in a June 2025 friendly, a 2-1 win for Montella's side, a result that provides a sliver of psychological edge for a team that desperately needs anything to hold onto. Read on to find out how this Group D finale plays out in our USA vs. Türkiye prediction. Get our top World Cup Predictions and increase your bankroll!
The latest odds list the United States at -110 on the money line, with Türkiye at +260 and the draw at +310.
USA: Pochettino Rotates but Wants the Win, Pulisic Returns
The United States have been clinical, scoring six goals on 26 shots across their first two matches. Pochettino's side will now face a talented yet winless Türkiye team in the final match of Group D. After already clinching the Round of 32, the USA will surely rotate the starting lineup in hopes of avoiding major injuries to their star players. The luxury of rotation heading into an elimination game adds a fascinating tactical dimension: Pochettino has earned the right to rest key pieces, but the competitive instinct of a head coach who has never won a major title and understands the momentum value of finishing group play unbeaten will push him toward sending a lineup with genuine intent.
Christian Pulisic will have another day to rest his calf after being pulled at halftime against Paraguay and missing the match against Australia, but his return to full fitness for Los Angeles is the central subplot of this match. A fully available Pulisic, operating against a Türkiye defensive structure that has been exposed in transition across both group games, changes the attacking equation significantly. Folarin Balogun has scored twice in the group stage, and Giovanni Reyna has added one more, a forward line operating with the confidence of a side that has scored six goals in their first two outings and knows they can hurt any opponent when the pressing structure functions at its best. Pochettino has said he wants to end the group stage with a victory, signaling an approach built around performance rather than pure rotation for its own sake.
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The home crowd factor at SoFi Stadium, one of North America's most spectacular venues, will generate the kind of atmosphere that has carried the USA through difficult moments at both previous World Cup appearances on home soil. The USA close out group play with a young, high-energy squad built around attacking pace and midfield depth, and the opportunity to send Los Angeles into the knockout rounds with maximum momentum is one that the entire squad will be motivated to deliver.
Türkiye: Güler and Yıldız Available, 62 Shots and Zero Goals
Türkiye have dominated posession in both their matches thus far and may do so again against a rotated American lineup, but the question is whether they'll be able to beat goalkeeper Matt Freese and score their first goal of the tournament. The statistical absurdity of Türkiye's World Cup campaign, 62 total shot attempts across two matches with 13 on target and zero goals, represents the most extreme finishing crisis of any team at the 2026 tournament, and Vincenzo Montella has been unable to identify the tactical adjustment that unlocks it.
Türkiye duo Uzun and Yıldız are ready to test their mettle in Los Angeles, with the 21-year-old Juventus winger carrying the creative ambitions of an entire nation on his shoulders in what amounts to a must-score situation. Arda Güler and Türkiye will be hungry to get at least a point from the 2026 World Cup after losing to both Australia and Paraguay. Güler's creative intelligence, Çalhanoğlu's midfield vision, and Yıldız's pace on the right flank give Türkiye a talented attacking combination that has generated shot volume without the clinical edge to convert, but against a rotated USA lineup, the space in behind should finally give the ball something to work with.
Türkiye hold a narrow historical advantage in the all-time series, two wins from five meetings against the USA's two, and their 2-1 friendly win over the Americans in June 2025 is the most relevant recent data point. Whether that form line carries any weight against a USA side that has been a transformed proposition under Pochettino's management is debatable, but it establishes that this is not a completely one-sided fixture regardless of the group-stage scorelines.
USA vs. Türkiye Picks
- Match Result Pick: USA
The United States to win is the call, with the hosts already through and Türkiye yet to score a goal at this tournament. Pochettino wants the victory, the home crowd at SoFi Stadium will generate an atmosphere that has fueled the USA's best performances this tournament, and a Türkiye finishing drought of 62 shots without a goal does not resolve itself simply because the opponent rotates. Even a second-string USA lineup carries more than enough attacking quality to find the net against a Türkiye side whose defense has conceded in five of their last six competitive matches. Take the USA to win.
- Over/Under Pick: Under 2.5 Goals
"While the USA doesn't need to try, technically, Türkiye doesn't need to either, Türkiye are already out of the group. They lost both their opening games and are solely playing for national pride at this point. Too much uncertainty due to having nothing at stake could put a damper on both offenses. This match is a grinder." The rotation factor further suppresses the goal ceiling, a rotated USA attacking lineup without the combination play that made Balogun and Pulisic so dangerous against Paraguay will find goals harder to come by, and a Türkiye side playing for pride rather than elimination-level urgency has different motivations than the desperate outfit that threw 30-plus shots at goalkeepers in their first two matches. Take the Under 2.5 goals
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