Carlos Ulberg vs Dominick Reyes Picks and Predictions for Saturday September 27 2025
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The light heavyweight division takes center stage at UFC Fight Night 260 on September 27, 2025, as Carlos Ulberg and Dominick Reyes collide in a high-stakes main event at RAC Arena in Perth, Australia. Ulberg, a rising star with an eight-fight win streak, faces a resurgent Reyes, a former title challenger looking to reclaim his spot among the elite. This clash of precision striking and knockout power could reshape the 205-pound landscape, with the winner eyeing a title shot. For the sharpest betting angles and expert insights, dive into our UFC Picks to dominate this fight and the entire card.
Fight Information
- Event: UFC Fight Night 260: Ulberg vs. Reyes
- Date: September 27, 2025
- Venue: RAC Arena, Perth, Australia
- Main Card Placement: Main Event (Light Heavyweight Bout, 5 Rounds)
- Fighter Records:
- Carlos Ulberg: 13-1 (8-1 UFC), ranked No. 3 in UFC light heavyweight division.
- Dominick Reyes: 15-4 (9-4 UFC), ranked No. 8 in UFC light heavyweight division.
- Recent Fight Results:
- Ulberg: Riding an eight-fight win streak, Ulberg scored a unanimous decision over Jan Blachowicz (March 2025), a TKO of Volkan Oezdemir (November 2024), and a knockout of Alonzo Menifield (May 2024), showcasing his dominance.
- Reyes: Rebounded with three straight knockouts over Nikita Krylov (February 2025), Anthony Smith (October 2024), and Dustin Jacoby (June 2024), after a three-fight skid that included losses to Jiri Prochazka and Ryan Spann.
Fighter Breakdown – Carlos Ulberg
- Fighting Style: Ulberg, nicknamed “Black Jag,” is a polished kickboxer with a disciplined, counter-heavy approach. His crisp striking (6.77 significant strikes per minute) and strong takedown defense (77%) allow him to dictate fights on the feet, while his four UFC knockouts highlight his power.
- Strengths:
- Striking Efficiency: Lands 6.77 significant strikes per minute at 55% accuracy, overwhelming opponents with volume and precision.
- Physicality: At 6’4” with a 77-inch reach, his length and footwork control range effectively.
- Momentum: Eight consecutive wins, including against former champ Blachowicz, show he’s peaking at 35.
- Weaknesses:
- Striking Defense: Absorbs 4.21 significant strikes per minute (49% defense), leaving him hittable against elite strikers like Reyes.
- Grappling: Rarely initiates takedowns (0.5 per 15 minutes, 50% accuracy), relying heavily on keeping fights standing.
- Recent Performance: Ulberg’s decision over Blachowicz was methodical, showcasing his ability to outpoint high-level competition. His TKO of Oezdemir and KO of Menifield highlight his growing finishing ability, but his counter-heavy style can lead to low-action fights.
Fighter Breakdown – Dominick Reyes
- Fighting Style: Reyes, “The Devastator,” is a dynamic southpaw striker with knockout power (seven UFC KOs) and a sneaky grappling game (1.2 takedowns per 15 minutes). His left hand and aggressive pressure make him a constant threat, though his durability is a concern.
- Strengths:
- Knockout Power: Seven of nine UFC wins by KO/TKO, with recent stoppages of Krylov, Smith, and Jacoby showing he’s regained his edge.
- Versatility: Combines 5.58 significant strikes per minute (54% accuracy) with 1.2 takedowns per fight (44% accuracy), keeping opponents guessing.
- Experience: Faced Jon Jones, Blachowicz, and Prochazka, giving him a mental edge in big fights.
- Weaknesses:
- Durability: Three knockout losses during his 2020-2022 skid raise concerns about his chin against Ulberg’s power.
- Pace: Can fade in later rounds, as seen in his loss to Spann, especially against high-volume strikers.
- Recent Performance: Reyes’ three straight KOs signal a career resurgence, with his Krylov stoppage earning a Performance of the Night bonus. However, his durability remains a question against a precise striker like Ulberg.
- Matchup Comparisons:
- Reach: Both are 6’4” with 77-inch reaches, neutralizing length advantages.
- Striking Accuracy: Ulberg’s 55% edges Reyes’ 54%, but Ulberg’s 6.77 strikes per minute dwarf Reyes’ 5.58, giving him a volume edge.
- Takedown Defense: Ulberg’s 77% defense outshines Reyes’ 66%, critical against Reyes’ occasional wrestling.
- Finish Rate: Ulberg’s four UFC KOs face Reyes’ seven, but Reyes’ recent durability issues tilt the power dynamic slightly toward Ulberg.
Betting Odds & Market Overview
- Moneyline
(as of September 2025):
- Ulberg: -245 (71% implied probability)
- Reyes: +200 (33.3% implied probability)
- Over/Under Rounds: Over 2.5 rounds (+110), Under 2.5 rounds (-140), leaning toward a finish given both fighters’ knockout histories.
- Odds Movement: The line opened at Ulberg -210, Reyes +175, with heavy public action on Ulberg’s win streak and No. 3 ranking pushing him to a wider favorite. Sharps are eyeing Reyes as a live underdog, banking on his power and experience.
Picks For Ulberg vs. Reyes & Fight Prediction
This light heavyweight main event is a clash of Ulberg’s disciplined precision against Reyes’ explosive power, with a potential title shot on the line. Ulberg’s 6.77 significant strikes per minute and 55% accuracy give him a clear edge in a striking battle, especially against Reyes’ 54% defense and history of absorbing knockouts. Reyes’ 5.58 strikes and seven UFC KOs make him dangerous, but his durability concerns—three KO losses in four fights from 2020-2022—suggest he may struggle against Ulberg’s volume. Ulberg’s 77% takedown defense should neutralize Reyes’ 1.2 takedowns per fight, keeping the fight where Ulberg thrives.
Reyes’ experience against Jones and Prochazka gives him a mental edge, but Ulberg’s eight-fight streak, including wins over Blachowicz and Oezdemir, shows he’s ready for the elite. The five-round format favors Ulberg’s consistent output, as Reyes has faded late in past fights. Expect Ulberg to use his reach and footwork to pick Reyes apart, landing clean shots that accumulate damage for a late stoppage.
Fight Prediction: Carlos Ulberg wins via TKO in Round 3. His striking volume, takedown defense, and durability will overwhelm Reyes, securing a stoppage as the veteran tires.
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- Ulberg Moneyline (-245): His streak and striking edge make him a strong favorite.
- Under 2.5 Rounds (-140): Both fighters’ knockout power points to an early finish.
- Ulberg by KO/TKO in Round 3 (+400): High-value prop, as Ulberg’s volume should break Reyes late.
