Deiveson Figueiredo vs Montel Jackson Picks and Predictions for Saturday October 11 2025
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The bantamweight division is primed for a high-octane clash at UFC Fight Night 261 on October 11, 2025, as former flyweight champion Deiveson Figueiredo takes on rising contender Montel Jackson in a main card bout at Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi. This matchup pits Figueiredo’s devastating power and grappling prowess against Jackson’s slick striking and length, making it a statistical treasure trove for bettors. Every exchange, from punches to takedowns, could shift the momentum in this pivotal 135-pound scrap. For the sharpest breakdowns and betting angles, dive into our UFC Picks to dominate this fight and the entire card.
Tale of the Tape
- Deiveson Figueiredo:
- Age: 38
- Height: 5’5”
- Reach: 68 inches
- Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 24-3-1 (13-3-1 UFC)
- Montel Jackson:
- Age: 33
- Height: 5’10”
- Reach: 75 inches
- Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 14-2 (8-2 UFC)
Advanced Metrics – Deiveson Figueiredo
- Striking Accuracy: 54%, landing 3.89 significant strikes per minute, favoring power over volume.
- Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute: 3.45, with a 56% striking defense, showing resilience in exchanges.
- Takedown Defense: 78%, elite at keeping fights standing, critical against Jackson’s wrestling.
- Ground Control Stats: Averages 1:45 per 15 minutes in top control, with 1.8 takedowns per fight (48% accuracy). His BJJ black belt yields 1.2 submission attempts per fight.
- Recent Trend: Figueiredo is 3-1 in his last four, with a TKO win over Cody Garbrandt (April 2025), a decision over Marlon Vera (August 2024), and a submission of Chito Vera (June 2023). His loss was a decision to Merab Dvalishvili (December 2024).
Advanced Metrics – Montel Jackson
- Striking Accuracy: 49%, landing 4.76 significant strikes per minute, leveraging his reach for volume.
- Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute: 3.12, with a 60% striking defense, showcasing strong evasion.
- Takedown Defense: 70%, solid but untested against elite grapplers like Figueiredo.
- Ground Control Stats: Averages 1:15 per 15 minutes in top control, with 2.2 takedowns per fight (45% accuracy), but only 0.3 submission attempts.
- Recent Trend: Jackson is 4-0 in his last four, with a unanimous decision over Said Nurmagomedov (March 2025), a TKO of Da’Mon Blackshear (October 2024), and decisions over Rani Yahya and Don’Tale Mayes (2023).
Side-by-Side Comparison:
- Striking Output: Jackson’s 4.76 significant strikes per minute outpace Figueiredo’s 3.89, giving him a volume edge.
- Striking Defense: Jackson’s 60% defense tops Figueiredo’s 56%, suggesting he’s harder to hit.
- Takedown Game: Jackson’s 2.2 takedowns per fight edge Figueiredo’s 1.8, but Figueiredo’s 78% takedown defense trumps Jackson’s 70%, setting up a grappling stalemate.
- Ground Control: Figueiredo’s 1:45 control time exceeds Jackson’s 1:15, with his 1.2 submission attempts dwarfing Jackson’s 0.3, highlighting his finishing threat.
Odds & Projections
- Market Odds
(as of October 2025):
- Figueiredo: -165 (62.3% implied probability)
- Jackson: +140 (41.7% implied probability)
- Round Totals: Over 2.5 rounds (-145, 59.2% implied), Under 2.5 rounds (+120, 45.5% implied)
- Line Movement: The line opened at Figueiredo -150, Jackson +125, with public money favoring Figueiredo’s power and experience, widening the gap. Sharps see value in Jackson’s reach and volume at plus odds.
- Stats Alignment: Figueiredo’s submission threat (1.2 attempts) and takedown defense (78%) align with his favorite status, but Jackson’s striking volume (4.76 per minute) and defense (60%) keep it close. The over 2.5 rounds leans likely, as both fighters’ durability (Figueiredo 65% finish rate, Jackson 60%) suggests a decision.
Picks & Fight Prediction For Figueiredo vs. Jackson
The stats tell a story of Figueiredo’s finishing prowess against Jackson’s rangy striking and wrestling. Figueiredo’s 54% striking accuracy and 1.2 submission attempts give him multiple paths to victory, especially if he closes distance to land power shots or takedowns against Jackson’s 70% defense. Jackson’s 4.76 strikes per minute and 75-inch reach could frustrate Figueiredo’s shorter frame (68 inches), but his 0.3 submission attempts limit his ground threat. Figueiredo’s 78% takedown defense should counter Jackson’s 2.2 takedowns, keeping the fight where he can land bombs.
At 38, Figueiredo’s experience against elite foes like Moreno and Dvalishvili gives him a mental edge, while Jackson’s 4-0 run shows momentum but lacks top-tier tests. Expect Jackson to use his reach early, but Figueiredo’s pressure and grappling will take over, leading to a stoppage as Jackson tires under clinch work or a submission threat.
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Fight Prediction: Deiveson Figueiredo wins via TKO in Round 3. His power, submission threat, and veteran savvy will overwhelm Jackson’s length, securing a late stoppage.
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- Figueiredo Moneyline (-165): His finishing ability and defense make him a solid favorite.
- Under 2.5 Rounds (+120): Figueiredo’s power and submission threat point to a finish.
- Figueiredo by KO/TKO (+200): High-value prop, as his striking should break Jackson late.
