Atlanta Dream vs Connecticut Sun Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Thursday August 13 2026
The Atlanta Dream travel to Mohegan Sun Arena to face the Connecticut Sun on Thursday, August 13, with tipoff set for 7:00 p.m. ET in a matchup that has Atlanta installed as a substantial 10.5-point road favorite. The Dream's offensive advantages across nearly every statistical category make this one of the more lopsided spreads on the WNBA slate. For more angles like this one, check out our WNBA picks before finalizing your card.
TLDR: Quick Picks and Prediction
- Spread: Atlanta -10.5 (-110)
- Total: Over 174.5 (-108)
- Projected Final Score: Dream 96, Sun 81
Odds and Line Movement
The spread has moved steadily toward Atlanta since Monday, and tracking that movement gives context on where the money has landed heading into Thursday's matchup.
Current Odds
| Date | Time | Atlanta | Connecticut | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/13 | 08:39:14AM | -10.5-110 | 10.5-110 | CONN 93%, 44% |
Line Movement - Spread
| Date | Time | Atlanta | Connecticut | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/13 | 08:39:14AM | -10.5-110 | 10.5-110 | CONN 93%, 44% |
| 08/13 | 04:02:14AM | -10.5-105 | 10.5-115 | CONN 94%, 50% |
| 08/13 | 01:44:03AM | -10.5-105 | 10.5-115 | CONN 92%, 57% |
| 08/13 | 00:29:33AM | -10.5-105 | 10.5-115 | CONN 91%, 67% |
| 08/13 | 00:29:33AM | -10.5-105 | 10.5-115 | CONN 90%, 67% |
| 08/12 | 05:35:24PM | -9.5-115 | 9.5-105 | CONN 94%, 67% |
| 08/12 | 03:23:24PM | -9.5-115 | 9.5-105 | CONN 90%, 87% |
| 08/11 | 09:31:53PM | -9.5-115 | 9.5-105 | CONN 88%, 89% |
| 08/11 | 09:31:53PM | -9.5-115 | 9.5-105 | CONN 94%, 91% |
| 08/11 | 09:31:53PM | -9.5-115 | 9.5-105 | CONN 88%, 90% |
| 08/11 | 09:31:53PM | -9.5-115 | 9.5-105 | CONN 90%, 87% |
| 08/11 | 09:31:53PM | -9.5-115 | 9.5-105 | — |
| 08/11 | 09:26:03PM | — | — | — |
| 08/11 | 08:15:53PM | -9.5-115 | 9.5-105 | — |
| 08/11 | 08:15:53PM | -9.5-115 | 9.5-105 | — |
| 08/11 | 04:01:54PM | -9.5-110 | 9.5-110 | — |
| 08/11 | 04:01:54PM | -9.5-110 | 9.5-110 | — |
Line Movement - Total
| Date | Time | Over | Under | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/13 | 08:39:14AM | 174.5o-108 | 174.5u-112 | U89%, O50% |
| 08/13 | 01:44:03AM | 174.5o-112 | 174.5u-108 | O93%, O92% |
| 08/12 | 05:35:24PM | 175.5o-105 | 175.5u-115 | O91%, O88% |
| 08/12 | 03:23:24PM | 174.5o-115 | 174.5u-105 | O93%, O93% |
| 08/12 | 01:56:44PM | 175.5o-105 | 175.5u-115 | O92%, O89% |
| 08/11 | 09:31:53PM | 173.5o-110 | 173.5u-110 | O91%, O92% |
Dream vs Sun Key Matchups and Game Preview
Atlanta enters at 20-12 and has been far more productive offensively than the 8-23 Sun, averaging 89.6 points per game compared with Connecticut's 79.7. The Dream also hold advantages in field-goal percentage at 44% to 43%, rebounding at 35.0 to 32.9 per game, assists at 20.9 to 19.2 and steals at 9.1 to 8.2. Allisha Gray has led Atlanta's scoring attack at 18.9 points per game while shooting 45.9% from the field, and Angel Reese has been dominant on the glass with 11.9 rebounds per contest. Jordin Canada adds another important dimension by averaging 7.6 assists, giving the Dream multiple ways to create offense against a Connecticut defense allowing 86.8 points per game.
The Sun are led offensively by Leila Lacan at 12.1 points and 4.4 assists per game, while Olivia Nelson-Ododa averages 6.0 rebounds. Connecticut does own a notable 4.6-to-3.2 advantage in blocks, but the broader matchup favors Atlanta, which already defeated the Sun 91-75 in their first meeting this season.
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Injuries also deserve attention here. Atlanta guard Te-Hina Paopao is out with a leg injury, while Indya Nivar is unavailable due to a coach's decision, slightly reducing the Dream's backcourt depth. Connecticut's Brittney Griner is a game-time decision because of a knee issue, and her status could be especially important against Atlanta's rebounding strength; Maria Kliundikova is also out.
Atlanta has gone 3-2 over its last five and most recently beat Toronto 107-95, while Connecticut snapped a five-game losing streak with a 75-72 victory over Phoenix in its latest outing. The spread is large, but Atlanta's offensive advantages and 16-point victory in the previous meeting make the favorite difficult to fade on Thursday.
ATL vs CONN Betting Trends
The spread has moved from Atlanta -9.5 as recently as Monday evening out to the current -10.5 number, with the price settling at -110 after touching as high as -115 on the Dream's side. Public money has consistently backed Connecticut against the spread, sitting at 93 percent of bets on the latest number even as the money percentage has been much more split at 44 percent. The total has bounced between 173.5 and 175.5 throughout the week, with the over drawing heavy backing at multiple points, including 93 percent of both bets and money on one recent number.
ATL vs CONN Key Injuries and Things to Know
- Te-Hina Paopao (ATL) - out, leg injury
- Indya Nivar (ATL) - unavailable, coach's decision
- Brittney Griner (CONN) - game-time decision, knee issue
- Maria Kliundikova (CONN) - out
Dream vs Sun Side and Over/Under Picks
- Spread: Atlanta -10.5 (-110)
- Total: Over 174.5 (-108)
Atlanta -10.5 is the preferred side, especially if Griner cannot play or is limited, given the Dream's rebounding and scoring edge across the board. On the total, the over stands out because Atlanta's pace and scoring ability should push the game upward even if Connecticut contributes only modestly on its end.
Sun Final Score Prediction
Dream 96, Sun 81
How to Wager on Dream vs Sun
For Thursday's matchup between Atlanta and Connecticut, the two most relevant markets are the spread, where Atlanta -10.5 offers value at -110 behind the Dream's statistical edges, and the total, where the over 174.5 at -108 lines up with Atlanta's pace and scoring depth. Bettors looking to shop this line further or use additional tools before placing a wager can check out our AI picks hub, along with our Dimers review and Oddible review for more ways to build out a card around this matchup.
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