Atlanta Dream vs Golden State Valkyries Picks and Predictions for Saturday October 31 2026
Six games. Three wins apiece. One game left.
And here’s what I keep coming back to. Golden State has won two of the last three games, and both victories came when the Valkyries kept Atlanta below 65 points. The Dream finally broke through Thursday, scoring 80 and forcing Game 7.
So what happens Saturday? I think Golden State gets back to the kind of defense that carried it through the regular season.
The Dream visit Chase Center in San Francisco on Saturday, October 31, with tipoff at 8 PM ET. Atlanta won Game 6 by an 80-69 score, tying the Finals at three games apiece. Golden State is a slight 1.5-point favorite at some books, and the total is around 142.5. I’m taking the Valkyries to win the championship, and I like the Under. Get ready for all of the WNBA action with our free WNBA picks.
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Atlanta Dream Have One More Chance
Atlanta finished the regular season 30-14, including 15-7 away from home. The Dream have already won twice at Chase Center in this series, so they’re not going to be intimidated by the building. They won Game 2 by 14 points and Game 3 by 26. That’s a pretty good reminder that Atlanta can beat Golden State when the offense is working.
But the Dream haven’t been consistent enough offensively. They scored 55 in Game 5 and 62 in Game 4, losing both. Then they put up 80 Thursday. That’s a huge swing from one game to the next. Atlanta has been better when it moves the ball quickly and creates good looks before Golden State’s defense gets set. When the Dream spend too much time holding the ball, the offense gets stuck.
Atlanta averaged 91.3 points during the regular season, but this series has been much tougher. Golden State has forced the Dream to work for almost everything. Atlanta’s three-point shooting can change a game, and the Dream have already shown they can get hot. But I don’t want to bet on that happening in Game 7 against the league’s best defensive team.
Golden State Valkyries Have the Home Floor
Golden State finished 32-12, including 17-5 at home. The Valkyries had the best defense in the WNBA during the regular season, allowing only 75.1 points per game. That’s the reason I like them here. When the offense struggles, Golden State can still win games by making opponents uncomfortable.
Look at Games 4 and 5. Golden State won 67-62 and 64-55. Those weren’t pretty games, but nobody gives out style points in the Finals. The Valkyries defended, rebounded and made enough baskets to win. That’s the formula I expect Saturday. They don’t need to score 90. They need to keep Atlanta from getting comfortable.
Golden State has been the better defensive team throughout the season, holding opponents to 41.4 percent shooting. The Valkyries also averaged more than ten made three-pointers per game during the regular season. That’s a useful combination. They can defend well enough to keep games close and then hit a few outside shots to pull ahead. The biggest concern is Thursday’s loss. Atlanta scored 80, and Golden State never really found a way to slow the Dream down. That has to change.
Atlanta Dream vs Golden State Valkyries Picks and Predictions
Golden State Valkyries Moneyline (-112)
I’m taking Golden State. Atlanta has already won twice on the road in this series, so the home floor isn’t some automatic advantage. But the Valkyries have been the better defensive team all year, and I trust that defense in a winner-take-all game. Golden State won Games 4 and 5 by making Atlanta work for every basket. I think the Valkyries get back to that approach Saturday. It won’t be pretty, and I wouldn’t be surprised if we’re watching a one-possession game late. But I’ll take Golden State to win its first championship.
Under 142.5 Points (-110)
I’m taking Under 142.5. Four of the six Finals games have finished below that number. Games 4 and 5 didn’t even reach 130 combined points. Game 7 should be tight, and I expect both teams to be more careful with possessions. The danger is Atlanta shooting well from three and forcing Golden State to play faster. That happened in Game 3, and it could happen again. But with a championship on the line, I think defense takes over. Something like 69-66 Golden State is my call.
Final Picks: Golden State Valkyries Moneyline (-112) and Under 142.5 Points (-110)
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