Chicago Sky vs Minnesota Lynx Picks and Prediction for Sunday May 17 2026
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The Chicago Sky and Minnesota Lynx meet on Sunday, May 17, 2026, at Target Center in Minneapolis, Minnesota, with tipoff scheduled for 7:00 PM. The game will be shown on WNBA League Pass, Victory+, CW26, and additional coverage. Minnesota is listed as a 4.5-point favorite, with the Lynx at -198 on the moneyline and Chicago at +164. The total is set at 169.5. Be sure to check out our free WNBA picks.
Chicago Tries to Regain Its Rhythm Away From Home
The Chicago Sky enter this matchup with a 2-1 overall record and a 2-1 road record. Chicago has had a mixed recent run, recently lost to Phoenix by a score of 91-83 after recently winning over Golden State 69-63 and Portland 98-83. Before that, Chicago recently lost to Atlanta 87-78 and also dropped a high-scoring game against Phoenix, 108-104. The Sky have shown they can win away from home, but they now face a Minnesota team that has also been finding ways to finish close games.
Chicago is averaging 83.3 points per game while allowing 79.0 points per game. The Sky are shooting 42% from the field and averaging 37.3 rebounds, 19.0 assists, 7.7 blocks, and 5.3 steals per game. Those numbers show a team that has been competitive on both ends, especially with its ability to rebound and protect the rim.
The clear strength for Chicago is its rebounding and shot-blocking profile. The Sky average more rebounds than Minnesota and also hold the edge in blocks per game. That gives Chicago a path to stay competitive, especially if it can limit second chances and make the interior difficult. The concern is that Minnesota has been more efficient from the field, and that could matter if this game becomes a possession-by-possession contest.
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Minnesota Looks to Protect the Target Center Floor
The Minnesota Lynx come into this game at 2-1 overall with a 0-1 home record. Minnesota has recently won over Dallas 90-86 and Phoenix 88-84, showing the ability to close out tight games. The Lynx recently lost to Atlanta 91-90, but they also recently won over Toronto 73-66 and picked up an 88-79 victory in another recent contest. Minnesota has been in several close games, and that recent pattern gives this matchup a competitive feel.
Minnesota is averaging 89.3 points per game while allowing 87.0 points per game. The Lynx are shooting 53% from the field and averaging 33.0 rebounds, 20.0 assists, 6.0 blocks, and 7.0 steals per game. Minnesota does not have the same rebounding number as Chicago, but the Lynx have been stronger in scoring, shooting efficiency, assists, and steals.
The biggest strength for Minnesota is field goal percentage. Shooting 53% as a team is a major advantage in this matchup, especially against a Chicago team shooting 42%. The Lynx are also averaging more points per game and slightly more assists, which points to a more efficient offensive profile. The weakness is that Minnesota allows 87.0 points per game, so Chicago should have opportunities to keep pressure on the scoreboard.
Chicago Sky vs Minnesota Lynx Picks and Prediction
Chicago Sky vs Minnesota Lynx Pick
- Pick: Minnesota Lynx -4.5
Minnesota is the pick against the spread because the Lynx have the stronger offensive numbers and the better shooting percentage entering this game. Minnesota is averaging 89.3 points per game compared to Chicago’s 83.3, and the Lynx are shooting 53% from the field compared to 42% for the Sky. Chicago does have the rebounding and blocks advantage, but Minnesota’s scoring efficiency and recent close wins over Dallas and Phoenix make the home side the stronger play here.
Chicago Sky vs Minnesota Lynx Total Pick
- Pick: Over 169.5
I would take the over in this matchup because both teams have shown enough scoring ability to push this number. Minnesota is averaging 89.3 points per game, while Chicago is averaging 83.3. Those two averages combine for 172.6 points, which sits above the posted total of 169.5. Minnesota has also allowed 87.0 points per game, which gives Chicago room to contribute enough offensively. With both teams capable of reaching the 80s, I like the over.
Final Score Prediction: Minnesota Lynx 88 – Chicago Sky 83
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