Connecticut Sun vs Las Vegas Aces Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Thursday August 20 2026
The Connecticut Sun visit the Las Vegas Aces on Thursday night at Michelob ULTRA Arena, where Las Vegas is a heavy favorite despite entering on a two-game losing streak. For more angles on today's slate, check out these WNBA predictions before finalizing your card. Below we break down the odds, the line movement, the injuries and the matchup notes shaping our side and total picks for this Thursday night showdown.
TLDR: Quick Picks and Prediction
- Spread Pick: Connecticut +14.5
- Total Pick: Under 167.5
- Final Score Prediction: Aces 89, Sun 77
Odds and Line Movement
Las Vegas is laying 14.5 points and the total is set at 167.5. Below is the current market along with how the line has moved leading into tipoff.
Current Odds
| Team | Spread |
|---|---|
| Connecticut Sun | +14½ (-115) |
| Las Vegas Aces | -14½ (-105) |
| Total | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 167.5 | 167½o-115 | 167½u-115 |
Line Movement - Spread
| Date | Time | Connecticut | Las Vegas | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/20 | 08:48:57AM | 14½-115 | -14½-105 | LV 79%, 80% |
| 08/20 | 08:13:03AM | 14½-108 | -14½-112 | LV 78%, 75% |
| 08/20 | 06:47:16AM | 15½-118 | -15½-102 | LV 77%, 73% |
| 08/20 | 06:33:06AM | 14½-102 | -14½-118 | LV 77%, 73% |
| 08/20 | 04:40:38AM | 14½-108 | -14½-112 | LV 77%, 73% |
| 08/20 | 00:54:49AM | 14½-108 | -14½-112 | LV 77%, 73% |
| 08/20 | 00:47:36AM | 14½-108 | -14½-112 | LV 77%, 73% |
| 08/19 | 11:32:57PM | 14½-115 | -14½-105 | LV 74%, 71% |
| 08/19 | 11:16:01PM | 14½-115 | -14½-105 | LV 70%, 67% |
| 08/19 | 11:14:50PM | 13½-105 | -13½-115 | LV 70%, 67% |
| 08/19 | 05:41:22PM | 13½-110 | -13½-110 | CONN 54%, 80% |
| 08/19 | 11:16:00AM | 13½-110 | -13½-110 | CONN 88%, 88% |
| 08/18 | 10:29:35PM | 13½-110 | -13½-110 | CONN 91%, 91% |
| 08/18 | 10:29:35PM | 13½-110 | -13½-110 | |
| 08/18 | 10:29:35PM | 13½-110 | -13½-110 | |
| 08/18 | 10:29:35PM | 13½-110 | -13½-110 | |
| 08/18 | 10:29:35PM | 13½-110 | -13½-110 |
Line Movement - Total
| Date | Time | Over | Under | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/20 | 08:48:57AM | 167½o-115 | 167½u-115 | U93%, U91% |
| 08/20 | 08:47:10AM | 167½o-105 | 167½u-115 | U88%, U88% |
| 08/20 | 08:13:03AM | 166½o-112 | 166½u-108 | U91%, U93% |
| 08/20 | 06:47:16AM | 166½o-115 | 166½u-105 | U89%, U88% |
| 08/20 | 06:14:06AM | 166½o-108 | 166½u-112 | U92%, U89% |
| 08/20 | 04:40:38AM | 165½o-112 | 165½u-108 | U91%, U92% |
| 08/20 | 00:54:49AM | 165½o-110 | 165½u-110 | U88%, U92% |
| 08/20 | 00:47:36AM | 164½o-115 | 164½u-105 | U87%, U90% |
| 08/19 | 11:32:57PM | 166½o-105 | 166½u-115 | U88%, U91% |
Sun vs Aces Key Matchups and Game Preview
Aces' Offensive Edge
Las Vegas averages 90.3 points per game on 48% shooting, compared with Connecticut's 79.4 points on 43%, and the Aces also hold advantages in assists at 21.8 to 19.1 and rebounds at 33.4 to 33.1.
Wilson's Interior Dominance
A'ja Wilson remains the central matchup problem for Connecticut, averaging 26.1 points and 9.7 rebounds while shooting 51.9% from the field. Chelsea Gray adds 6.9 assists per game, giving Las Vegas an experienced creator capable of exploiting a short-handed Sun frontcourt.
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Sun's Offensive Leaders
Connecticut is led offensively by Leïla Lacan at 11.6 points and 4.7 assists per game, while Olivia Nelson-Ododa averages a team-best 6.3 rebounds.
Connecticut's Frontcourt Concerns
Injuries make that interior matchup particularly concerning for the Sun, with Aaliyah Edwards ruled out because of an ankle injury and Brittney Griner unavailable with a knee issue. Their absences remove size and scoring options against Wilson and should make protecting the paint significantly more difficult.
LV Backcourt Depth
Las Vegas has an absence of its own with guard Dana Evans out because of a leg injury, reducing some backcourt depth but leaving the Aces' primary stars intact.
Las Vegas has already won both meetings this season, routing Connecticut 98-69 in May before taking a much closer 101-94 decision two days later. The Sun have shown some recent fight, however, beating Los Angeles 85-77 in their latest game, while the Aces are coming off losses to Minnesota and Atlanta. Connecticut allows 86.9 points per game compared with 87.4 for Las Vegas, suggesting the Sun's defense has been more competitive than their record implies.
Betting Trends - CONN vs LV
The spread has moved considerably over the past two days, opening at Connecticut +13.5 with heavy CONN ticket counts as high as 91% before flipping toward LV, which has drawn between 70% and 80% of tickets on the most recent updates as the number climbed toward 14.5. The total has bounced between 164.5 and 167.5, with Under money consistently strong across nearly every report, reaching as high as 93% on one update.
Connecticut Injury Notes
With Aaliyah Edwards out because of an ankle injury and Brittney Griner unavailable with a knee issue, Connecticut's frontcourt depth is significantly reduced heading into this matchup against Wilson and the Aces.
Key Injuries and Things To Know - CONN vs LV
- Connecticut: Aaliyah Edwards is out with an ankle injury.
- Connecticut: Brittney Griner is unavailable with a knee issue.
- Las Vegas: Dana Evans is out with a leg injury.
- Las Vegas has already won both meetings this season, 98-69 and 101-94.
- Connecticut is coming off an 85-77 win over Los Angeles, while Las Vegas has dropped two straight to Minnesota and Atlanta.
Sun vs Aces Side and Over/Under Picks
Sun Against the Spread
With Las Vegas laying 14.5, the value is on Connecticut to stay inside the large number rather than asking the Aces to win comfortably enough to cover.
Aces and the Total
The injuries should suppress Connecticut's scoring ceiling, which also points toward a lower-scoring game and Under 167.5.
- Spread: Connecticut Sun +14.5
- Total: Under 167.5
Final Score Prediction
Prediction: Aces 89, Sun 77, making Connecticut +14.5 and Under 167.5 the preferred bets for this Thursday night matchup.
- Final Score: Aces 89, Sun 77
- Winning Side: Connecticut Sun +14.5
- Total Result: Under 167.5
How to Wager On Sun vs Aces
Bettors looking to shop the market on this Sun vs Aces matchup should compare spread and total pricing across multiple books, since the line movement above shows real swings on both sides leading into tipoff. For bettors who want additional tools to sharpen their process on games like this one, these resources can help round out your card:
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- AI picks for data-driven picks across today's slate
- Dimers review for a look at model-based projections
- Oddible review for another AI-driven angle on this matchup
