Connecticut Sun vs Phoenix Mercury Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Friday July 17 2026
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The Connecticut Sun vs Phoenix Mercury matchup on Friday night brings together two struggling teams, with Phoenix favored at home despite carrying a four-game losing streak into the contest. Bettors looking for more games to target this week should check out these WNBA picks before locking in any tickets.
TLDR: Quick Picks and Prediction
- Spread Pick: Connecticut Sun +4.5
- Total Pick: Under 163.5
- Final Score Prediction: Phoenix Mercury 82, Connecticut Sun 80
Odds and Line Movement
Current Odds
| Market | Connecticut Sun | Phoenix Mercury |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +4.5 (-108) | -4.5 (-112) |
| Total | Over 163.5 (-110) | Under 163.5 (-110) |
| Public Betting | CONN 83%, 71% | — |
Line Movement - Spread
| Date | Time | Connecticut Sun | Phoenix Mercury |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/15 | 06:09:26PM | 5.5 (-115) | -5.5 (-105) |
| 07/15 | 06:09:26PM | 5.5 (-115) | -5.5 (-105) |
| 07/16 | 06:23:32PM | 4.5 (-105) | -4.5 (-115) |
| 07/16 | 06:23:32PM | 4.5 (-105) | -4.5 (-115) |
| 07/16 | 07:05:42PM | 5.5 (-118) | -5.5 (-102) |
| 07/16 | 07:06:22PM | 4.5 (-105) | -4.5 (-115) |
| 07/16 | 07:23:42PM | 5.5 (-118) | -5.5 (-102) |
| 07/16 | 07:43:21PM | 4.5 (-105) | -4.5 (-115) |
| 07/16 | 07:56:02PM | 4.5 (-112) | -4.5 (-108) |
| 07/16 | 10:16:02PM | 4.5 (-105) | -4.5 (-115) |
| 07/16 | 10:16:02PM | 4.5 (-105) | -4.5 (-115) |
| 07/16 | 10:16:02PM | 4.5 (-105) | -4.5 (-115) |
| 07/17 | 04:00:56AM | 4.5 (-105) | -4.5 (-115) |
| 07/17 | 08:45:57AM | 4.5 (-112) | -4.5 (-108) |
| 07/17 | 08:53:47AM | 4.5 (-105) | -4.5 (-115) |
| 07/17 | 09:19:17AM | 4.5 (-102) | -4.5 (-118) |
| 07/17 | 09:44:57AM | 4.5 (-108) | -4.5 (-112) |
Line Movement - Total
| Date | Time | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/16 | 09:37:31PM | 163.5o-115 | 163.5u-105 |
| 07/17 | 04:00:56AM | 164.5o-108 | 164.5u-112 |
| 07/17 | 09:19:17AM | 163.5o-115 | 163.5u-105 |
| 07/17 | 09:44:57AM | 163.5o-110 | 163.5u-110 |
Sun vs Mercury Key Matchups and Game Preview
Connecticut enters this matchup at 6-18 overall and 2-8 on the road, but the Sun snapped a two-game losing streak by defeating Portland 90-87 in their most recent outing. Phoenix is 8-17 with a 3-8 home record and has lost four consecutive games, including a 104-100 defeat at Minnesota.
Phoenix's Offensive Edge
The Mercury hold modest offensive advantages, averaging 83.3 points on 44% shooting compared with Connecticut's 79.7 points on 43%, but neither defense has been particularly effective. Phoenix allows 87.3 points per game, while Connecticut gives up 86.4, suggesting both teams have opportunities to score despite their inconsistent records.
Mercury's Offensive Centerpiece
Kahleah Copper is the clear offensive centerpiece for Phoenix, averaging 20.5 points per game, while Alyssa Thomas directs the offense with 8.0 assists.
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Sun's Missing Rebounder
Connecticut normally relies heavily on Aneesah Morrow, who averages 10.5 points and 9.4 rebounds, but she is out for personal reasons. That absence removes the Sun's leading rebounder and one of their most dependable interior options. Saniya Rivers is also unavailable with an ankle injury after averaging 3.1 assists, further reducing Connecticut's ball-handling and perimeter depth.
Phoenix's Frontcourt Concerns
Phoenix has its own frontcourt concerns, as Natasha Mack is out with a foot injury after averaging 8.3 rebounds, while Kyara Linskens is a game-time decision because of a knee issue. Sami Whitcomb is also questionable with a knee injury, potentially limiting Phoenix's shooting and reserve production.
Connecticut's Rebounding and Defense
Those absences may allow Connecticut to remain competitive on the glass, where the Sun average 33.2 rebounds compared with Phoenix's 31.6. Connecticut also owns advantages in blocks and steals, producing 4.5 rejections and 8.6 takeaways per game, and that defensive activity could disrupt a Mercury offense that has failed to reach 90 points in three of its last four games.
Betting Trends CONN vs PHX
Connecticut has won two of its last four games and lost by six or fewer in two of its last five games, making the underdog spread attractive against a Phoenix team on a four-game losing streak. Public betting has leaned heavily toward Connecticut throughout the week, reaching as high as 94% of money at points in the line movement.
Key Injuries and Things To Know CONN vs PHX
Connecticut is missing Aneesah Morrow, who is out for personal reasons, and Saniya Rivers, who is unavailable with an ankle injury. Phoenix is without Natasha Mack, who is out with a foot injury, while Kyara Linskens is a game-time decision because of a knee issue and Sami Whitcomb is questionable with a knee injury.
Sun vs Mercury Side and Over/Under Picks
Sun Spread Angle
Phoenix still has the best individual scorer and playmaker in this matchup, but laying 4.5 points with a team on a four-game skid is difficult, especially given Connecticut's recent signs of competitiveness. The preferred side is Connecticut +4.5.
Mercury Total Trends
Under 163.5 is the stronger total play because both rosters are missing important contributors and Connecticut may need to slow the pace without Morrow and Rivers. The line movement above shows the total settling at 163.5o-110/163.5u-110 in the most recent update.
- Spread: Connecticut Sun +4.5
- Total: Under 163.5
Final Score Prediction
Mercury Final Score Outlook
Copper's scoring ability and Thomas' playmaking should be enough for Phoenix to edge out a Connecticut team missing two key contributors, but the Sun's rebounding and defensive activity should keep this one inside the spread even in a loss.
- Final Score Prediction: Phoenix Mercury 82, Connecticut Sun 80
How to Wager On Sun vs Mercury
Bettors looking to build out this matchup further have a few resources worth checking before placing a wager on Sun vs Mercury. Comparing model-based projections against the current market number can help confirm whether Connecticut +4.5 and the Under 163.5 line up with broader expectations. These AI picks offer a wider look at how models are projecting this game.
Two additional tools worth reviewing for this specific matchup include the Dimers review, which breaks down simulation-based projections for games like this one, and the Oddible review, which focuses on real-time odds comparison across sportsbooks. Using these resources alongside the line movement data above can help bettors decide whether to back Connecticut on the spread, take the Under, or look elsewhere on the board for this Sun-Mercury matchup.
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