Dallas Wings vs Golden State Valkyries Picks and Prediction for Friday October 2 2026
The Dallas Wings visit the Golden State Valkyries at Chase Center in San Francisco, California, on Friday, October 2, 2026, for the deciding Game 3 of their first-round WNBA playoff series. Tipoff is scheduled for 9:00 PM ET with coverage on ESPN2. Dallas finished the regular season 27-17 overall and 11-11 on the road, while Golden State went 32-12 overall and an impressive 17-5 at home. The Valkyries dominated Game 1 at home 104-80 before Dallas answered with a 108-100 overtime victory Wednesday to force a winner-take-all Game 3. DraftKings has Golden State as an 8.5-point favorite at -102, with Dallas +8.5 at -118. The Valkyries are -345 on the moneyline, Dallas is +275, and the total is 158.5 after opening at 156.5. Be sure to check out our free WNBA picks for more WNBA predictions throughout the playoffs.
Dallas Forces a Winner-Take-All Game
Dallas faced elimination after suffering a 24-point loss in Game 1, but the Wings produced a dramatically different performance at home Wednesday. Dallas trailed 26-23 after the opening quarter before winning the second 27-19 to take a five-point halftime lead. Golden State responded with a 29-22 third quarter, and the teams eventually reached overtime tied at 93. Dallas then dominated the extra period 15-7 to secure a 108-100 victory and extend its season.
The Game 2 box score shows how much more efficiently Dallas operated offensively. The Wings shot 50% from the field, making 32 of 64 attempts, and were even better from three-point range at 52%, connecting on 12 of 23 attempts. Dallas also went 32-for-37 at the free-throw line. The Wings finished with 20 assists and 13 turnovers while matching Golden State with 29 rebounds. That was a massive offensive improvement after Dallas scored only 80 points in Game 1.
Dallas' regular-season numbers suggest the Wings are capable of producing offense at this level, even if another 108-point performance is unlikely. They averaged 89.4 points per game while shooting 47% and producing 22.3 assists per contest. The problem has been defense, with Dallas allowing 102.0 points per game according to the supplied team statistics. That weakness was exposed in Game 1 and again Wednesday when Golden State reached 100 points. Dallas has scored enough to remain dangerous, but slowing the Valkyries remains the key to extending its season beyond Friday.
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Golden State Returns to Its Home-Court Advantage
Golden State had an opportunity to close the series Wednesday but couldn't finish the job after taking a two-point advantage into the fourth quarter. The Valkyries scored 19 points in the fourth while Dallas scored 21, sending the game into overtime. Golden State then managed only seven points in the extra period while allowing 15.
The Valkyries didn't lose because their offense completely disappeared. Golden State shot 47% from the field and 44% from three-point range, making 12 of 27 attempts from beyond the arc. The Valkyries also went 20-for-23 from the free-throw line and finished with 21 assists against only 10 turnovers. Golden State recorded eight steals and committed three fewer turnovers than Dallas. The problem was that Dallas was even more efficient, particularly from three and at the foul line.
Golden State now gets the biggest advantage available in this series: a return to Chase Center. The Valkyries went 17-5 at home during the regular season and already crushed Dallas 104-80 there in Game 1. Golden State averaged 82.2 points per game during the season while allowing 94.0 according to the supplied team statistics, but the first two playoff meetings have been played at a much higher offensive level. The Valkyries have scored 204 points through two games, while Dallas has scored 188.
Dallas Wings vs Golden State Valkyries Picks and Prediction
Pick: Dallas Wings +8.5 (-118)
Dallas +8.5 is the side pick. Golden State deserves to be favored at Chase Center after going 17-5 at home and winning Game 1 by 24 points, but an 8.5-point spread is substantial for a winner-take-all playoff game. Dallas demonstrated in Game 2 that it can score efficiently against this defense, shooting 50% overall and 52% from three while producing 108 points. Some shooting regression should be expected, particularly on the road, but the Wings don't need to repeat Wednesday's victory to cash this ticket. Golden State can win and advance by as many as eight points while Dallas still covers. With both teams now having produced one convincing performance in the series, taking more than eight points with the underdog provides the better side value.
Pick: Over 158.5 (-110)
The Over 158.5 is the total pick. Game 1 produced 184 combined points, and Game 2 reached 193 points through regulation before finishing with 208 after overtime. Even removing the 15 minutes of overtime scoring, these teams have comfortably cleared Friday's number in both playoff meetings. Golden State has scored 104 and 100, while Dallas has scored 80 and 108. The Game 2 shooting percentages probably won't be duplicated exactly, but both teams generated efficient offense, combined for 24 made three-pointers and attempted 60 free throws. The total has moved from 156.5 to 158.5, but it remains considerably below what these teams have produced in both games of the series. A final in the neighborhood of 86-80 would be enough to clear the number without requiring another offensive explosion.
Final Picks: Dallas Wings +8.5 (-118) and Over 158.5 (-110)
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