Dallas Wings vs Las Vegas Aces Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Thursday June 25 2026
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Thursday night's late tip-off delivers one of the most compelling Western Conference matchups on the WNBA slate, and our latest WNBA picks find a clear angle on the underdog in what the market has priced as a comfortable Las Vegas advantage. The Dallas Wings visit the Las Vegas Aces at 10:00 p.m. ET with the Aces favored by 5.5 points at -250 on the moneyline, but a spread that feels inflated when you account for the season series history, Dallas's current form, and a matchup between two teams separated by much less than five points in most statistical categories. The Wings have already beaten Las Vegas twice in 2026, and backing them to keep it within the number is the right structural play.
Quick Picks and Prediction
- Side Pick: Dallas Wings +5.5 (-115)
- Total Pick: Over 177.5
- Projected Final Score: Aces 92, Wings 89
Odds and Line Movement
Dallas has attracted heavy public support throughout the tracking window, drawing 81 to 100 percent of spread dollars across every available update from Wednesday morning through Thursday morning. The spread opened with Dallas at +4.5 and has since moved to +5.5, a full-point shift that reflects the market adjusting to Las Vegas action pushing the number up. The total opened at 175.5 on Wednesday and has moved up to 177.5 through sustained over action, with the over drawing 96 to 100 percent of dollars across all tracked intervals. Below are the full line movement tables from tracked data.
Current Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas Wings | +5.5 (-112) | +205 | Over 177.5 (-114) |
| Las Vegas Aces | -5.5 (-108) | -250 | Under 177.5 (-106) |
Line Movement - Spread
| Date | Time | Dallas | Las Vegas | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/25 | 12:30:10AM | +5.5 -112 | -5.5 -108 | DAL 81%, DAL 50% |
| 06/24 | 08:22:51PM | +5.5 -118 | -5.5 -102 | DAL 100%, DAL 100% |
| 06/24 | 08:21:31PM | +5.5 -114 | -5.5 -106 | DAL 100%, DAL 100% |
| 06/24 | 08:09:23PM | +5.5 -110 | -5.5 -110 | DAL 100%, DAL 100% |
| 06/24 | 04:04:36PM | +4.5 -105 | -4.5 -115 | DAL 100%, DAL 100% |
| 06/24 | 04:03:56PM | +4.5 -104 | -4.5 -118 | DAL 100%, DAL 100% |
| 06/24 | 09:59:32AM | +4.5 -105 | -4.5 -115 | DAL 100%, DAL 100% |
| 06/24 | 01:06:39AM | +5.5 -114 | -5.5 -106 | - |
Line Movement - Total
| Date | Time | Over | Under | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/25 | 06:59:13AM | 177.5 -114 | 177.5 -106 | OV 98%, OV 90% |
| 06/25 | 06:59:00AM | 177.5 -110 | 177.5 -110 | OV 98%, OV 90% |
| 06/25 | 01:06:03AM | 177.5 -114 | 177.5 -106 | OV 96%, OV 75% |
| 06/24 | 08:10:11PM | 177.5 -110 | 177.5 -110 | OV 100%, OV 100% |
| 06/24 | 06:29:42PM | 176.5 -110 | 176.5 -110 | - |
| 06/24 | 10:05:37AM | 176.5 -112 | 176.5 -108 | - |
| 06/24 | 01:06:39AM | 175.5 -114 | 175.5 -106 | - |
Key Matchups and Game Preview
This game is far closer than a 5.5-point spread suggests, and the most compelling evidence for that assessment is the season series itself. Dallas has beaten Las Vegas in both prior meetings, including a 30-point demolition on June 15, and the Wings are entering this game on a two-game winning streak with the kind of late-game execution — two wins by a combined four points — that reflects genuine competitive quality.
Wilson's Dominance and Dallas's Answer
A'ja Wilson averaging 25.1 points and 9.1 rebounds per game is the primary reason Las Vegas is a -250 moneyline favorite, and she is the single most important player on the floor when these teams meet. Wilson's ability to score in the post, convert free throws at a high rate, and anchor Las Vegas's defensive interior makes her a matchup problem for any roster in the WNBA. The relevant question is not whether Wilson will be good Thursday — she will be — but whether Dallas has the frontcourt depth to limit her efficiency and keep the game within a possession or two in the fourth quarter. Jessica Shepard's 11.1 rebounds per game is the best interior answer Dallas can offer, and her ability to compete on the glass prevents Wilson from generating easy second-chance points in a game where every possession matters at 177.5.
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Bueckers Against Gray's Playmaking
Paige Bueckers is the engine of the Dallas offense, averaging 19.3 points and 6.1 assists while shooting 50.2 percent from the field. That shooting efficiency is what separates her from most guards in the league at this stage of the season, and against a Las Vegas defense that will be focused on disrupting the Wings' transition opportunities, Bueckers's half-court shot creation becomes the primary path for Dallas to stay competitive. Chelsea Gray's 7.3 assists per game is the best facilitating number in this matchup, and her ability to find Wilson and Las Vegas's shooters in rhythm is what turns the Aces' offensive efficiency advantage into actual points. The Bueckers-Gray comparison is the key individual matchup to watch: both players create for others and shoot efficiently, and whichever team gets more out of that role is likely the team that covers their side of the spread.
Wings' Season Series Advantage
Dallas's two wins over Las Vegas this season are not flukes. The May 28 result was an 8-point Dallas victory at 95-87, and the June 15 game was a 30-point blowout at 96-66. Those results span different contexts and still produced convincing Dallas wins, which tells you the Wings have solved something structural about how to attack Las Vegas's defense and disrupt their offensive rhythm. A team that wins twice against a .706-winning-percentage opponent by margins of 8 and 30 points is not simply getting lucky — they are executing a game plan that works against the specific personnel and defensive tendencies Las Vegas deploys. That matchup intelligence is worth more than the four-game sample suggests, and it is the core reason backing Dallas at +5.5 makes structural sense.
Aces Efficiency Profile
Las Vegas's statistical advantages are real even if the spread is inflated. The Aces shoot 48 percent from the field compared to Dallas's 46 percent, collect 35.5 rebounds per game to the Wings' 34.0, and lead in assists at 23.3 to 23.1 and blocks at 5.6 to 3.4. That blocks differential is the most significant number in the defensive comparison — Las Vegas's 5.6 blocks per game is dramatically higher than Dallas's 3.4, which means the Aces contest more shots at the rim and force more mid-range decisions from Wings drivers. In a game projected to end 92-89, block rates in the final two minutes can determine which team gets the stops they need to close out a win. The Aces are the better team by multiple metrics, but the spread asks them to win by six or more, which their home record of 4-3 and recent loss to New York makes less than automatic.
Betting Trends - DAL and LV
Dallas has dominated the spread betting market in a way that is unusual for a road underdog. Every tracked interval from Wednesday morning through the early hours of Thursday shows the Wings drawing 100 percent of both dollars and tickets, with the most recent Thursday morning update showing 81 percent of dollars for Dallas at a 50-50 ticket split. That sustained public support for the underdog pushed the spread from +4.5 to +5.5 through Wednesday afternoon before stabilizing, which is a meaningful half-point move in the underdog's favor. Getting +5.5 instead of +4.5 on a game projected to end within three points is a real line improvement, and the move confirms the market has been responding to volume rather than sharp Las Vegas steam.
The total market has been a one-sided over market from the opening bell. The line opened at 175.5 Wednesday morning and has been bet up two full points to 177.5 through sustained over action. Every tracked public data point shows the over at 96 to 100 percent of both dollars and tickets, which is extraordinary one-sided total action. Despite that volume, the number has held at 177.5 rather than continuing to climb, which could reflect sharp under action capping the movement. However, the series scoring history — Dallas's two wins produced 95-87 and 96-66 final scores — and both teams averaging near 90 points per game supports the over projection even at the adjusted number.
Key Injuries and Things To Know - DAL and LV
Dallas is without Alanna Smith, which removes frontcourt depth at a position where the Wings already face a disadvantage against A'ja Wilson. Odyssey Sims is also unavailable, reducing guard depth and ball-handling options behind Bueckers. Alysha Clark is listed as a game-time decision with a leg injury, and her availability is the most important pre-tip status check for Dallas bettors. Clark's role in the Wings' wing defense and secondary scoring makes her a meaningful presence in close fourth-quarter situations, and if she is ruled out, the Wings are playing with a shortened rotation against one of the deepest rosters in the Western Conference.
Las Vegas is missing Janiah Barker and Chennedy Carter, which reduces the Aces' bench scoring and wing depth. Dana Evans is also a game-time decision, and her status is worth confirming at tip-off given her role as a guard behind Chelsea Gray. If Evans is out alongside Carter, Las Vegas's backcourt depth behind Gray is significantly reduced, which matters in a game expected to go down to the wire where foul trouble or late-game fatigue can force difficult rotational decisions. The symmetry of both teams having game-time decisions — Clark for Dallas, Evans for Las Vegas — makes final lineup confirmation essential before placing any wager on either the spread or the total.
The recent form comparison reinforces Dallas's case. The Wings have won back-to-back games by a combined four points — 112-110 in overtime at Seattle and 93-92 over Chicago — which reflects a team executing in high-pressure late-game situations. Las Vegas lost 87-76 to New York in its last outing, a 11-point defeat that followed two wins but suggests the Aces' defensive consistency is not airtight. A motivated Dallas team that has beaten Las Vegas twice this season and is riding genuine momentum is exactly the kind of opponent that covers a 5.5-point number on the road.
Side and Over/Under Picks
Side Pick: Dallas Wings +5.5 (-115)
The spread is inflated relative to the season series evidence. Dallas has won both prior meetings and enters this game on a two-game winning streak with late-game execution that reflects genuine competitive quality. A'ja Wilson is the best player in this game, but the Wings have already shown twice they can contain Las Vegas's full offensive arsenal. Taking +5.5 with a team that has beaten this opponent by 8 and 30 points in the same season is straightforward value.
Total Pick: Over 177.5
Both prior meetings between these teams finished at 95-87 and 96-66 — the June 15 game was a blowout but still produced 162 combined points with Dallas's second unit playing significant minutes in the fourth quarter. When these teams play at their respective paces with both Bueckers and Wilson commanding attention on every possession, the scoring environment tends toward the high-80s and low-90s for each team. The over at 177.5 reflects a game where both offenses perform near their season averages, which the matchup history suggests is the baseline expectation.
Final Score Prediction
Wilson dominates in the first half, building a Las Vegas lead through a combination of post scoring and free throws that the Wings struggle to match with Alanna Smith unavailable. Bueckers takes over in the third quarter, converting at her 50-percent efficiency rate to pull Dallas within the spread. The fourth quarter is contested, with Gray's playmaking creating the decisive Las Vegas buckets and the Aces' block rate protecting their lead against Dallas's final push.
Projected Final Score: Las Vegas Aces 92, Dallas Wings 89
How to Wager On Wings vs Aces
Road underdog spread plays backed by head-to-head winning records are among the most reliable value spots in WNBA betting, and this game is a textbook example. Dallas at +5.5 with two wins over Las Vegas this season is a clearly mispriced number, and the over at 177.5 is grounded in a series scoring pattern that consistently produces totals in the 180-190 range when these teams play. Getting both the spread and the total correct in the same game maximizes the return on what is already a high-conviction play.
For bettors who want data support before committing to a road underdog at +205 implied probability, AI picks are worth incorporating into the process. Models that process head-to-head records, adjusted offensive and defensive ratings, and game-time decision probabilities can generate spread cover percentages that quantify what the season series history already suggests about Dallas's ability to stay within 5.5 points against this specific opponent.
Two tools that complement this type of Western Conference matchup analysis are detailed in the Dimers review and the Oddible review. Dimers builds win probability and total scoring models that are well-suited for WNBA games where star player impact — Wilson's 25-point average — drives a large portion of the projection, making it useful for validating the over at an adjusted 177.5 number. Oddible's odds comparison functionality is particularly valuable here because the spread has moved from +4.5 to +5.5 through the tracking window, and finding the best available number across sportsbooks before a 10:00 p.m. tip-off can make a meaningful difference on a -115 wager. Both platforms belong in your late-night WNBA betting process for Western Conference matchups with active injury reports and contested line movement.
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