Dallas Wings vs Phoenix Mercury Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Monday September 21 2026
The Dallas Wings and Phoenix Mercury meet Monday night at the Mortgage Matchup Center in Phoenix, with Dallas looking to continue its late-season surge, and this Wings vs Mercury prediction breaks down the odds, matchups and best angles before tip-off. Bettors looking for more value across the league can check our WNBA predictions hub for additional plays tonight.
TLDR: Quick Picks and Prediction
- Spread Pick: Dallas Wings -5.5
- Total Pick: Under 171.5
- Projected Final Score: Wings 88, Mercury 78
Odds and Line Movement
Current Odds
| Market | Dallas | Phoenix |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | -5.5 (-112) | +5.5 (-108) |
| Total | Over 171.5 | Under 171.5 |
Line Movement - Spread
| Date | Dallas | Phoenix |
|---|---|---|
| 09/21 | -5½ -112 | +5½ -108 |
| 09/21 | -6½ -102 | +6½ -118 |
| 09/21 | -5½ -112 | +5½ -108 |
| 09/21 | -6½ -102 | +6½ -118 |
| 09/21 | -5½ -112 | +5½ -108 |
| 09/21 | -5½ -118 | +5½ -102 |
| 09/21 | -6½ -102 | +6½ -118 |
| 09/21 | -5½ -118 | +5½ -102 |
| 09/21 | -6½ -102 | +6½ -118 |
| 09/20 | -5½ -115 | +5½ -105 |
| 09/20 | -6½ -105 | +6½ -115 |
Line Movement - Total
| Date | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 09/21 | 171½ -112 | 171½ -108 |
| 09/21 | 172½ -110 | 172½ -110 |
| 09/21 | 172½ -105 | 172½ -115 |
| 09/21 | 172½ -115 | 172½ -105 |
| 09/21 | 173½ -105 | 173½ -115 |
| 09/21 | 172½ -115 | 172½ -105 |
| 09/21 | 173½ -105 | 173½ -115 |
| 09/21 | 172½ -115 | 172½ -105 |
| 09/21 | 173½ -105 | 173½ -115 |
| 09/21 | 173½ -102 | 173½ -118 |
| 09/21 | 172½ -105 | 172½ -115 |
| 09/21 | 172½ -115 | 172½ -105 |
| 09/20 | 172½ -105 | 172½ -115 |
| 09/20 | 171½ -115 | 171½ -105 |
| 09/20 | 172½ -105 | 172½ -115 |
| 09/20 | 171½ -115 | 171½ -105 |
| 09/20 | 172½ -105 | 172½ -115 |
| 09/20 | 171½ -115 | 171½ -105 |
| 09/20 | 172½ -110 | 172½ -110 |
| 09/20 | 171½ -115 | 171½ -105 |
Wings vs Mercury Key Matchups and Game Preview
Wings Riding Six-Game Streak
Dallas enters at 26-16 and has won six straight games, including an 87-82 victory over Phoenix on September 19. The Wings have been the stronger team on both ends, averaging 89.1 points per game while allowing 85.1.
Mercury Fall to 15-27
Phoenix sits at 15-27 after dropping Saturday's matchup to Dallas, scoring 84.4 points per game while surrendering 87.3. The Mercury also trail in field-goal percentage at 44% to Dallas' 47%, rebounding at 31.6 to 34.5 per game, and assists at 20.2 to 22.0.
Bueckers Leads Dallas' Attack
Paige Bueckers remains the centerpiece of the Wings' attack, averaging 20.6 points and 5.8 assists per game while shooting an efficient 50.9% from the field, and Jessica Shepard has controlled the glass with 10.9 rebounds per contest.
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Phoenix's Backcourt Depleted
Phoenix normally counters with Kahleah Copper, who leads the club at 21.3 points per game, while Alyssa Thomas has been the Mercury's primary facilitator with 8.4 assists along with 7.8 rebounds. Phoenix faces a major offensive loss with Copper ruled out because of a groin injury, while Kelsey Plum is out for the season with a lower-leg injury and Kara Dunn is questionable with a knee issue.
DAL Injury Situation
Dallas will be without Alanna Smith because of a lower-leg injury, while Azzi Fudd remains out for the season with a knee injury and Costanza Verona is unavailable for personal reasons.
Wings Dominant in Recent Series
Dallas has dominated the recent series, winning 85-70 on June 11 before taking Saturday's rematch 87-82, and the current six-game winning streak reflects the gap between these clubs entering the final stretch.
DAL and PHX Betting Trends
The spread has swung repeatedly between Dallas -5.5 and -6.5 throughout the overnight hours, with public betting money showing 100% of tickets on Dallas across every check where public data was available. The total has also bounced frequently between 171.5 and 173.5, with the number settling back down to 171.5 by the most recent check on Monday morning.
DAL and PHX Injuries and Things To Know
- Dallas: Alanna Smith is out because of a lower-leg injury; Azzi Fudd remains out for the season with a knee injury; Costanza Verona is unavailable for personal reasons.
- Phoenix: Kahleah Copper is ruled out because of a groin injury; Kelsey Plum is out for the season with a lower-leg injury; Kara Dunn is questionable with a knee issue.
Wings vs Mercury Side and Over/Under Picks
Wings Side Pick
With Bueckers directing the more efficient offense and Phoenix missing two of its most important scorers in Copper and Plum, Dallas has a clear path to creating separation. The pick is Dallas Wings -5.5.
Mercury Total Pick
Removing Copper and Plum from an offense already averaging just 84.4 points makes generating enough scoring against Dallas difficult, and Phoenix's depleted backcourt makes the under attractive despite Dallas' strong offensive form. The total pick is Under 171.5.
Final Score Prediction
Expect Dallas' balanced attack and Phoenix's shorthanded backcourt to produce a comfortable Wings win. Projected Final Score: Wings 88, Mercury 78.
How to Wager On Wings vs Mercury
Bettors looking to shop this Wings vs Mercury line have a few things to weigh tonight. The spread has swung between Dallas -5.5 and -6.5 repeatedly overnight, so it is worth comparing books before locking in a number. The total has also moved between 171.5 and 173.5 multiple times, making it worthwhile to shop for the best number before betting the Under given how frequently the line has changed.
For bettors who want additional data points before making a final call, our AI picks hub breaks down model-driven projections for games like this one. Tools like the Dimers review and the Oddible review can also help cross-check the spread, total and moneyline before you place a wager on tonight's Wings vs Mercury matchup.
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