Golden State Valkyries vs Atlanta Dream Picks and Prediction for Saturday October 24 2026
I keep going back to something about this series. Golden State beat Atlanta three times during the regular season, won the opening game of the Finals, and now looks like it can't figure out how to score against the Dream. That's quite a turnaround in less than a week. Atlanta has won two straight, and Wednesday's 97-71 beating was about as convincing as it gets. The Valkyries have a good basketball team. Their 32 wins weren't an accident. But I wouldn't want to be in their locker room trying to explain how they're going to fix everything before Saturday afternoon.
Game 4 of the WNBA Finals is set for Saturday, October 24, 2026, at State Farm Arena in Atlanta, Georgia. Tipoff is at 1:00 PM ET, with NBC and Peacock carrying the game. The Dream lead the series 2-1 and are favored by 4.5 points. The total is 153.5. Golden State can still get this thing back to San Francisco tied at two games apiece. Atlanta would much rather head west needing only one more win.
Golden State Valkyries Can't Keep Giving Away Possessions
Golden State finished 32-12 during the regular season and went 15-7 away from home. The Valkyries were good enough to knock out Dallas in three games and then sweep defending champion Las Vegas. I don't think anybody expected them to get pushed around the way they have been lately. They won Game 1 against Atlanta 68-64, although even that wasn't a particularly good offensive performance. Then came a 79-65 loss Monday and Wednesday's 26-point defeat. The last two games have been ugly. Atlanta has outscored Golden State by 40 points, and the Valkyries haven't scored more than 71 in any game of this series.
Golden State made 10.4 three-pointers per game during the regular season. That was the best average in the league, and it gave the Valkyries a way to win games even when they weren't getting much going around the basket. Wednesday they made 12 threes and still lost by 26. That tells you how badly everything else went. Atlanta won the scoring battle in the paint 44-20 and picked up 22 points off Golden State turnovers. The Valkyries committed 19 turnovers for the second straight game. That's 38 possessions they've thrown away in two games, and we're talking about a team that has scored only 136 points over that stretch. Those numbers don't go together very well.
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Their defense bothers me almost as much. Golden State finished the regular season with the league's best defensive rating at 99.1, and that was a big reason it got this far. The Dream have found ways around it. Golden State did get 38 points from its bench Wednesday, so the reserves aren't the problem. But the starters haven't been doing enough offensively, and the whole team has struggled to keep Atlanta away from the basket. I could see the Valkyries making this a much closer game Saturday. They've got enough defense to do it. I'm just not sure where the extra scoring is supposed to come from unless they stop giving Atlanta the basketball.
Atlanta Dream Have Found a Way to Beat Golden State
Atlanta went 30-14 during the regular season, including 15-7 at home. The Dream swept Washington in the first round, took care of New York in three straight games, and have now won two of three against Golden State. They were pretty fortunate to be within four points at the end of Game 1 considering how poorly they shot. Since then, they've been the better team. Wednesday's win wasn't built around one hot quarter, either. Atlanta led 46-40 at halftime and then outscored Golden State 51-31 the rest of the way. There wasn't much suspense by the fourth quarter.
The Dream averaged 91.3 points during the regular season, which ranked third in the WNBA. They allowed 84.5, fourth best in the league. Those numbers are impressive enough, but what they've done defensively in the playoffs has been even better. Atlanta came into the Finals with the top postseason defensive rating at 102.0. The Dream also averaged 10.6 offensive rebounds during the regular season, leading the league in that category. That matters against Golden State because Atlanta can score without needing to shoot particularly well. An offensive rebound here, a turnover there, and suddenly the Dream have six or eight points without Golden State getting much of a chance to answer.
Atlanta has also been getting contributions throughout its lineup. Five players reached double figures Wednesday, and that makes defending the Dream a difficult job. You can't just load up on one scoring option and expect the rest of the team to disappear. What really impressed me was the way Atlanta handled the second half. Golden State was still close enough at halftime to make things interesting, but the Dream kept attacking instead of settling for outside shots. They won the paint battle, kept forcing mistakes, and didn't give the Valkyries much room to recover. Atlanta has been playing better basketball over the last two games. I don't see much reason to argue otherwise.
Golden State Valkyries vs Atlanta Dream Picks and Prediction
Atlanta Dream -4.5
I know Golden State is better than what we saw Wednesday. You don't win 32 games and sweep Las Vegas without being able to play some basketball. But I'm taking Atlanta -4.5 because the Dream have been winning the same battles for two games now, and Golden State hasn't done much to change that. Atlanta is getting inside, picking up extra possessions, and forcing turnovers. The Valkyries have given it away 19 times in consecutive games. They also haven't reached 72 points in the Finals. Maybe Golden State comes out and shoots 45% from three Saturday. That would certainly change things. But if you're asking me which team I'd rather trust right now, it's Atlanta. The Dream don't have to repeat Wednesday's 26-point win to cover this number. They just need to keep doing enough of what has worked the last two games. I'll lay the 4.5.
Under 153.5
I'm sticking with the under, although Wednesday gave us a pretty good reminder of what can go wrong with that bet. Atlanta scored 97 points, and the game finished with 168. The first two games, though, produced totals of 132 and 144. Golden State has scored 68, 65, and 71 in the series. That's 68 points per game, and I have trouble seeing the Valkyries suddenly putting together an 85-point afternoon against this defense. Atlanta could certainly get into the 80s again, especially if the turnovers continue. That's the risk. But Golden State has to understand that another game with Atlanta getting easy baskets is probably another loss. I expect the Valkyries to spend more time working for decent shots and trying to keep the Dream out of transition. Atlanta can win this game scoring 78 or 80. Golden State would still need to contribute quite a bit to get the total over 153.5. I like something closer to 79-70 Atlanta, so I'm going under.
Final Picks: Atlanta Dream -4.5 and Under 153.5
Preview completed October 23, 2026. Betting odds, team availability, and other game information may change before tipoff.
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