Golden State Valkyries vs Las Vegas Aces Picks and Predictions for Friday October 9 2026
The Golden State Valkyries visit the Las Vegas Aces at Michelob ULTRA Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada, on Friday, October 9, 2026, for Game 3 of their WNBA semifinal series. Tipoff is scheduled for 9:30 PM ET, with coverage on Peacock and NBCSN. Golden State enters with a commanding 2-0 series lead after winning both games at home, including a narrow 83-81 victory on Wednesday. The Valkyries finished the regular season at 32-12, while Las Vegas went 31-13. The Aces are favored by 4.5 points at DraftKings, with Las Vegas at -180 on the moneyline and Golden State at +150. The total is set at 156.5 points. Be sure to check out our free WNBA picks for more predictions throughout the playoffs.
Golden State Valkyries Have Taken Control of the Series
Golden State is one victory away from advancing to the WNBA Finals, an impressive position for a franchise that has established itself among the league's best teams. The Valkyries opened the semifinals with a convincing 71-60 victory before surviving a much tougher challenge in Wednesday's 83-81 win. Golden State has now won four of its last five games, and its ability to control the tempo against Las Vegas has been particularly impressive. The Valkyries have held an offense that averaged more than 91 points during the regular season to just 60 and 81 points in consecutive games.
Defense has been the foundation of Golden State's success throughout the season. The Valkyries allow only 80.4 points per game while averaging 82.2 offensively, and their disciplined approach has translated well into playoff basketball. Golden State also averages 33.3 rebounds, 19.3 assists, and 7.8 steals, demonstrating its ability to remain competitive without relying on overwhelming offensive production. In Game 1, the Valkyries frustrated Las Vegas with their defensive positioning and forced the Aces into an uncomfortable offensive rhythm. Wednesday's contest was considerably closer, but Golden State still found a way to execute when the game was on the line.
The concern for Friday is that Golden State nearly surrendered a 17-point advantage in Game 2, allowing Las Vegas to erase the deficit and briefly move ahead during the fourth quarter. The Valkyries recovered, but that stretch demonstrated how dangerous the Aces can become when their offense establishes momentum. Golden State also faces the challenge of playing in Las Vegas, where the Aces finished the regular season 15-7. The Valkyries won't necessarily need another outstanding defensive performance to remain competitive, but protecting the basketball and avoiding extended scoring droughts will be important if they hope to complete the sweep.
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Las Vegas Aces Face Elimination After Consecutive Losses
Las Vegas returns home facing a situation few expected when the semifinals began. The Aces won 31 regular-season games and entered the playoffs with one of the league's most productive offenses, yet Golden State has frustrated them throughout the opening two contests. The 71-60 loss in Game 1 was particularly concerning because Las Vegas struggled to create efficient scoring opportunities. Wednesday's 83-81 defeat offered some encouragement, especially after the Aces rallied from a considerable deficit, but the comeback ultimately fell short. Las Vegas now needs three consecutive victories to keep its championship hopes alive.
The Aces averaged 91.5 points per game during the regular season while shooting an impressive 49% from the field. They also produced 22.0 assists and 33.4 rebounds per contest, numbers that reflect their ability to create quality opportunities through ball movement and efficient shooting. However, their offensive production has dropped significantly against Golden State. The Aces have averaged just 70.5 points through the first two semifinal games, and their inability to generate consistent scoring has placed additional pressure on a defense that allows 84.2 points per game. Las Vegas needs to improve its shooting efficiency without allowing Golden State to dictate the pace.
Injuries have complicated the situation for the Aces. Las Vegas is dealing with multiple absences, including a guard sidelined by a leg injury and a forward unavailable for the remainder of the season. Those losses have reduced the team's depth and created additional challenges when trying to maintain offensive production throughout the game. Still, the Aces showed encouraging signs during their second-half comeback Wednesday, and returning home provides an opportunity to build on that improvement. Las Vegas has enough offensive ability to extend the series, but the team must establish a more consistent rhythm rather than relying on another late comeback.
Golden State Valkyries vs Las Vegas Aces Picks and Predictions
Pick: Golden State Valkyries +4.5 (-115)
I'm taking Golden State with the 4.5 points. The Valkyries have won both games in this series and demonstrated that their defensive approach can disrupt an offense that was among the league's most productive during the regular season. Las Vegas deserves respect as the home favorite, particularly after nearly completing an impressive comeback Wednesday, but the Aces have struggled to maintain consistent scoring against Golden State's defensive pressure. The Valkyries have also shown the ability to execute in close games, an important advantage when receiving more than one possession on the spread. Las Vegas may produce a stronger offensive performance at home, but asking the Aces to win by at least five points against a team that has controlled much of this series feels expensive. Golden State has enough defensive discipline and confidence to remain competitive even if the series extends to a fourth game.
Pick: Under 156.5 Points (-105)
The Under 156.5 is the total pick. Golden State and Las Vegas combined for just 131 points in Game 1 before producing 164 in Wednesday's much closer contest. While the second game exceeded Friday's posted total, the opening two matchups have demonstrated how effectively Golden State can disrupt the Aces' offensive rhythm. Las Vegas averaged 91.5 points during the regular season but has managed only 70.5 per game against the Valkyries in this series. Golden State also prefers a more controlled approach, averaging 82.2 points while allowing 80.4 during the season. The Aces should be more aggressive offensively with elimination approaching, although that urgency doesn't guarantee efficient scoring against a disciplined defense. If Golden State can limit transition opportunities and force Las Vegas into difficult half-court possessions, another game in the 140s or low 150s is realistic.
Final Picks: Golden State Valkyries +4.5 (-115) and Under 156.5 Points (-105)
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