Indiana Fever vs Minnesota Lynx Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Thursday September 24 2026
Thursday's Fever vs Lynx prediction matches two playoff teams heading in opposite directions at Target Center, with tipoff at 8:00 PM ET. Indiana is 28-15, has won four of its last five and is now a 3.5-point road favorite. Minnesota has already clinched the No. 1 seed but has lost four of its last five, and it will be without leading scorer Olivia Miles. The season series is tied 1-1 after the Lynx won 108-100 and the Fever answered with a 96-77 rout on September 22. Minnesota is +140 on the moneyline, and the total has slipped from 183.5 to 182.5. With Indiana motivated to improve its playoff seeding and Minnesota possibly prioritizing health, the Fever are the side, with Caitlin Clark's status the key variable. For more daily edges across the league, check out our full board of WNBA picks.
TLDR: Quick Picks and Prediction
- Spread Pick: Indiana Fever -3.5 (-115)
- Total Pick: Under 182.5 (-108)
- Projected Final Score: Fever 94, Lynx 86
Odds and Line Movement
Current Odds
| Team | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Indiana Fever | -3.5 (-115) | Over 182.5 (-112) |
| Minnesota Lynx | +3.5 (-105) | Under 182.5 (-108) |
Line Movement - Spread
| Date | Indiana | Minnesota | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/24 | -3.5 (-115) | +3.5 (-105) | IND 100%, IND 100% |
| 09/24 | -3.5 (-110) | +3.5 (-110) | IND 100%, IND 100% |
| 09/24 | -2.5 (-115) | +2.5 (-105) | IND 100%, IND 100% |
| 09/23 | -2.5 (-108) | +2.5 (-112) |
Every bet on the spread has landed on Indiana. The Fever opened at -2.5 with the juice actually leaning slightly toward Minnesota at -112. Once the betting splits appeared, 100% of the money and tickets went to Indiana. The book first moved the juice to -115 on the Fever, then raised the number to -3.5, and has since added juice again at -115. That is a full point of movement plus juice on a line that opened below a field goal. The market has fully bought into the Fever, and the move likely reflects the news that Miles has been ruled out. Bettors who wait risk seeing the number reach -4, so -3.5 is worth taking now.
Line Movement - Total
| Date | Over | Under | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/24 | 182.5 (-112) | 182.5 (-108) | UN 100%, UN 100% |
| 09/23 | 183.5 (-110) | 183.5 (-110) |
The total opened at 183.5 with even -110 juice on both sides. When the betting splits came in, 100% of the money and tickets were on the Under, and the book dropped the number a point to 182.5. The Over is now slightly favored at -112, which suggests the book is trying to draw some Over action after the drop. Under bettors lost a point of value, but the market's direction is clear. Bettors who can still find 183.5 at another book should grab it, while 182.5 at -108 remains a solid play.
Fever vs Lynx Key Matchups and Game Preview
This is a regular-season finale between two playoff teams, but their situations are very different. Minnesota has clinched the No. 1 seed and has little left to play for. Indiana is still working to improve its playoff positioning. The Fever are also the hotter team, and the Lynx are missing their top scorer. Those factors, combined with the season series, set up a favorable spot for Indiana.
Sign Up Get $30 Premium Picks Credit + Exclusive Offers
Subscribe Now
Fever Riding Strong Form
Indiana enters on a strong run, having won four of its last five games. The most important of those wins came against this same Minnesota team on September 22, when the Fever won 96-77 and controlled the game from the first quarter. That 19-point win was a statement result, and it came against a Lynx team that had Miles available. The Fever have the momentum and the motivation heading into Thursday.
Lynx Stumbling Into the Postseason
Minnesota has lost four of its last five games. Having already locked up the No. 1 seed, the Lynx may be focused more on getting healthy for the playoffs than on winning the regular-season finale. That doesn't mean they won't compete, but a team with nothing to gain in the standings and a key player sidelined is a difficult side to trust against a motivated opponent.
Indiana Owns the Offensive Edge
The Fever have been one of the more productive offenses in this matchup. Indiana averages 96.7 points per game and shoots 49% from the field, compared with Minnesota at 91.0 points and 48%. That is a 5.7-point scoring edge. With Miles out, Minnesota's scoring should drop further, while Indiana's offense remains intact if Clark plays.
Fever Stars: Mitchell, Clark and Boston
Kelsey Mitchell leads Indiana with 25.0 points per game and is the Fever's most reliable scorer. Caitlin Clark runs the offense with 8.5 assists per game, and she was outstanding in the last meeting with 27 points, nine assists and seven rebounds. Aliyah Boston adds 8.1 rebounds per game, which helps Indiana compete on the glass against a Minnesota team that leads in rebounding. If Clark is cleared, the Fever have three players who can take over different parts of the game.
Minnesota Without Olivia Miles
The absence of Olivia Miles is a major blow to the Lynx. She leads Minnesota with 19.8 points and 6.0 assists per game, so the Lynx lose both their top scorer and their main playmaker. Her calf injury takes away a large portion of Minnesota's shot creation and offensive efficiency. Anastasiia Olairi Kosu is also out with a foot injury, which further thins the rotation.
Lynx Motivation With the No. 1 Seed Clinched
Minnesota still owns season-long advantages in rebounding, assists, blocks and steals. Those strengths are real, and they are why the Lynx won the first meeting 108-100. But with the top seed secured, Minnesota may limit minutes for key players and prioritize health, as it may have done during its recent slide. A team resting players and missing its best scorer won't have the same edge in these categories.
Why the Fever Can Cover on the Road
Laying 3.5 points on the road usually requires a clear edge, and Indiana has several. The Fever have the better offense, the better recent form, more to play for and a full roster aside from Clark's back issue. The Lynx are without Miles and may not push as hard in a game that doesn't affect their seeding. Indiana won by 19 in the last meeting, and a margin of four or more is well within reach again.
IND vs MIN Betting Trends
Fever Trends
- Indiana enters Thursday at 28-15.
- The Fever have won four of their last five games.
- Indiana beat Minnesota 96-77 on September 22.
- The Fever average 96.7 points per game on 49% shooting.
- Indiana has drawn 100% of the spread money and tickets.
- The Fever's spread moved from -2.5 to -3.5.
Lynx Trends
- Minnesota has clinched the No. 1 seed in the WNBA playoffs.
- The Lynx have lost four of their last five games.
- Minnesota won the first meeting 108-100.
- The Lynx average 91.0 points per game on 48% shooting.
- Minnesota leads in rebounding, assists, blocks and steals on the season.
- The total dropped from 183.5 to 182.5 with 100% of the money on the Under.
IND vs MIN Key Injuries and Things To Know
Indiana Injury Report
- Caitlin Clark – Game-Time Decision (back)
Minnesota Injury Report
- Olivia Miles – Out (left calf, team-leading 19.8 points and 6.0 assists per game)
- Anastasiia Olairi Kosu – Out (foot)
Things To Know About the Fever and Lynx
Caitlin Clark's availability is the biggest factor for Indiana. She is a game-time decision with a back issue, and her status matters for both the spread and the total. If she plays, the Fever's offense gets a playmaker who averages 8.5 assists and just posted 27 points in the last meeting. If she sits, Indiana leans more heavily on Mitchell, and the spread becomes less certain. Bettors should check her status before tipoff.
For Minnesota, the loss of Miles removes the team's top scorer and top passer. Combined with Olairi Kosu's absence and the Lynx's clinched seed, Minnesota has several reasons to play a more conservative game. That lowers the Lynx's scoring ceiling, which supports both the Fever spread and the Under.
Fever vs Lynx Side and Over/Under Picks
Indiana Spread Pick
The spread pick is Indiana Fever -3.5 (-115). The Fever have the better offense, better form and more motivation, while the Lynx are missing their leading scorer and have already secured the top seed. Indiana beat Minnesota by 19 just two days ago, and the Lynx are now without Miles on top of that.
The market agrees, with 100% of the money on Indiana and the line moving a full point. The pick carries more confidence if Clark is cleared to play, so check her status before betting. If she is ruled out, bettors may want to reduce their stake, but Indiana's edges still make the Fever the stronger side.
Under Pick for Indiana at Minnesota
The total pick is Under 182.5 (-108). Minnesota's offense takes a big hit without Miles, who accounts for nearly 20 points and six assists per game. If the Lynx also limit minutes for other key players with the top seed locked up, their scoring should fall well below their 91.0-point average.
The last meeting produced just 173 points, well under this number. Indiana's offense is productive, but a Clark absence or limited minutes would lower its ceiling as well. The market has pushed the total down on unanimous Under action. A final around 180 points fits the matchup, and bettors who can find 183.5 should take the extra point.
Fever vs Lynx Final Score Prediction
- Projected Final Score: Fever 94, Lynx 86
- Winner: Indiana Fever
- Spread: Fever -3.5 (-115) covers
- Total: 180 points, Under 182.5 hits
Indiana should lean on Mitchell's scoring and, if available, Clark's playmaking to control the game. Minnesota's rebounding and defense keep it competitive early, but without Miles, the Lynx will have a hard time creating consistent offense. The Fever pull away in the second half as Minnesota focuses on the postseason. A 94-86 Indiana win takes the season series and cashes the spread and the Under.
How to Wager On Fever vs Lynx
This matchup comes down to motivation and availability. The Fever -3.5 at -115 backs the hotter, more motivated team against a Lynx squad without its top scorer and already locked into the No. 1 seed. The line has already moved a full point with unanimous Indiana support, so taking -3.5 now avoids the risk of the number rising to -4 or higher.
The Under 182.5 fits the same game script, with Minnesota's offense weakened and potentially limited minutes across the rotation. Bettors who like both plays can pair the Fever spread with the Under in a same-game parlay, since an Indiana win in a controlled game helps both legs. Above all, confirm Caitlin Clark's status before tipoff, because her availability could move both the spread and the total. Lock in your bets before the 8:00 PM ET tipoff.
For more ways to find value on games like this one, check out our breakdown of the top AI picks platforms. You can also read our Dimers review for simulation-based projections, or explore our Oddible review to see how another data-driven tool can help you find edges across the WNBA board.
Betting on the WNBA?
- Find our list of our favorite WNBA sportsbooks
- Claim your promos with the best WNBA sportsbook bonuses
Up To $1500 in Bonus Bets Paid Back if your First Bet Does Not Win
New Users – Get $250 in Bonus Bets when you wager $5 for 5 days
New DraftKings Customer: SPEND $5, GET $200 IN BONUSES
