Indiana Fever vs New York Liberty Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Saturday August 22 2026
The Indiana Fever vs New York Liberty picks market is heating up ahead of Saturday night's 7:00 PM ET tip in Brooklyn, with Indiana looking to close out a winning regular-season series against New York. Before locking in a side, bettors weighing this matchup alongside other WNBA picks this week should know exactly how the numbers, injuries, and line movement stack up. Below is a full breakdown of the odds, matchups, and our final picks for Fever vs Liberty.
TLDR: Quick Picks and Prediction
- Spread Pick: Indiana Fever +2.5
- Total Pick: Over 185.5
- Projected Final Score: Indiana 96, New York 94
Odds and Line Movement
Indiana is getting 2.5 points on the road against New York, with the total sitting at 185.5. The tables below track how the spread and total have moved leading into tip-off.
Current Odds
| Team | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Indiana Fever | +2.5 (-110) | Over 185.5 (-110) |
| New York Liberty | -2.5 (-110) | Under 185.5 (-110) |
Line Movement - Spread
| Date | Indiana | New York | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/22 | 2½ -110 | -2½ -110 | IND 93%, 91% |
| 08/22 | 2½ -110 | -2½ -110 | IND 91%, 75% |
| 08/22 | 2½ -110 | -2½ -110 | IND 90%, 90% |
| 08/21 | 2½ -110 | -2½ -110 | IND 90%, 88% |
| 08/21 | 2½ -110 | -2½ -110 | IND 91%, 75% |
| 08/21 | 2½ -110 | -2½ -110 | IND 88%, 75% |
| 08/21 | 2½ -115 | -2½ -105 | IND 88%, 75% |
| 08/21 | 2½ -115 | -2½ -105 | IND 90%, 75% |
| 08/21 | 2½ -110 | -2½ -110 | IND 89%, 75% |
| 08/21 | 1½ -105 | -1½ -115 | IND 89%, 75% |
| 08/21 | 2½ -112 | -2½ -108 | IND 91%, 75% |
| 08/21 | 2½ -110 | -2½ -110 | IND 89%, 75% |
| 08/21 | 1½ -115 | -1½ -105 | NY 93%, 92% |
| 08/21 | 1½ -112 | -1½ -108 | NY 89%, 93% |
| 08/21 | -1½ +100 | 1½ -120 | NY 92%, 93% |
| 08/21 | -1½ -110 | 1½ -110 | NY 89%, 91% |
Line Movement - Total
| Date | Over | Under | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/22 | 185½ -110 | 185½ -110 | U94%, U59% |
| 08/22 | 185½ -105 | 185½ -115 | U94%, U60% |
| 08/22 | 185½ -110 | 185½ -110 | U66%, U54% |
| 08/22 | 185½ -115 | 185½ -105 | U66%, U54% |
| 08/22 | 186½ -105 | 186½ -115 | U73%, U58% |
| 08/21 | 186½ -110 | 186½ -110 | U60%, U56% |
| 08/21 | 186½ -115 | 186½ -105 | U82%, U60% |
| 08/21 | 187½ -108 | 187½ -112 | U82%, U60% |
| 08/21 | 187½ -112 | 187½ -108 | U94%, U93% |
| 08/21 | 187½ -110 | 187½ -110 | U87%, U89% |
| 08/21 | 187½ -110 | 187½ -108 | U89% |
| 08/21 | 188½ -110 | 188½ -110 | — |
Indiana Fever vs New York Liberty: Key Matchups and Game Preview
Indiana enters Saturday's game at 24-13 overall and 11-7 on the road, while New York sits at 22-15 and 12-5 at home. Indiana already holds a 2-1 edge in the season series, with wins of 108-88 on July 18 and 106-92 on August 11, while New York's only victory came in a tighter 83-75 result back on June 6. That head-to-head history, combined with the Fever's stronger recent form at 4-1 over their last five games compared with New York's 3-2 stretch, gives Indiana real momentum heading into Brooklyn.
Offensively, the Fever have been the more productive unit all season, averaging 96.1 points per game on 49% shooting from the field. The Liberty have not matched that pace, scoring 90.2 points per game on 46% shooting, but they have made up ground on the other end of the floor. New York allows just 87.2 points per game compared with Indiana's 90.5 points allowed, giving the Liberty the clearer defensive identity in this matchup. New York also holds a rebounding edge at 35.2 boards per game to Indiana's 33.4.
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Fever Firepower Led by Mitchell and Clark
Kelsey Mitchell paces Indiana at 24.6 points per game, and Caitlin Clark's 8.3 assists per game give the Fever a significant playmaking advantage over New York in this matchup. Aliyah Boston contributes 8.6 rebounds per game for Indiana, rounding out a balanced attack that has translated into wins against this exact Liberty roster twice already this season.
Liberty Lean on Stewart and Jones
Breanna Stewart leads New York at 20.7 points per game, while Jonquel Jones is the Liberty's top rebounder at 9.2 boards per game. Both teams can also affect the game away from the scoreboard, with Indiana averaging 6.7 steals per game to New York's 6.2, and both clubs averaging at least 3.9 blocks per game.
IND vs NY Betting Trends
Indiana's season-series record against New York is 2-1, and the Fever have covered in blowout fashion in both of their wins this year. The total has gone over in two of the three meetings between these teams, including a combined 198 points in Indiana's win earlier this month. New York's lone win in the series came in a lower-scoring, defense-oriented game, which lines up with the Liberty's season-long identity as the better defensive team in this pairing.
IND vs NY: Key Injuries and Things To Know
Injuries are the swing factor in this matchup. Caitlin Clark is listed as a game-time decision with a back issue, and Aliyah Boston is also a game-time decision because of a lower-leg injury, while Damiris Dantas remains out for Indiana with a knee injury. On the other side, New York will be without Satou Sabally due to a concussion, while Jonquel Jones is questionable with an ankle injury and Leonie Fiebich is questionable with a foot injury.
Jones' availability is particularly important for New York, since the Liberty's rebounding and interior defense could take a hit without her on the floor. A limited or absent Boston would create a similar problem for Indiana's frontcourt, so bettors should track the final injury reports closely before locking in a wager.
Fever vs Liberty Side and Over/Under Picks
- Side Pick: Indiana Fever +2.5, provided Caitlin Clark is confirmed to play
- Total Pick: Over 185.5
Indiana's stronger offense, better recent form, and 2-1 edge in the season series make the Fever attractive with the points in this spot. The total also leans over, since two of the three meetings between these teams have reached at least 196 combined points, including the 198-point total in Indiana's win earlier this month.
Final Score Prediction
Indiana 96, New York 94.
How to Wager On Fever vs Liberty
Bettors looking to build out a full card around Fever vs Liberty have several ways to shape their approach beyond a straight spread or total bet. Comparing AI-driven models can help validate a side before placing a wager, and our AI picks hub breaks down how different projection systems view matchups like this one. For bettors who want a deeper look at model-based tools, our Dimers review and Oddible review both cover how those platforms approach a game with this many moving injury variables. Given the uncertainty around Clark, Boston, and Jones, checking multiple sources before betting Fever vs Liberty is a smart way to confirm value on both the spread and total.
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