Las Vegas Aces at Phoenix Mercury Picks and Predictions for Friday, October 10, 2025
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The Las Vegas Aces visit the Phoenix Mercury on Friday at 8:00 PM ET at Footprint Center, on ESPN for Game 4 of the best-of-seven WNBA Finals. Las Vegas grabbed a 3–0 lead in the series with a 90-88 win in Game 3, led by A’ja Wilson’s 28 points while Satou Sabally scored 24 for Phoenix. Win the Finals with our free WNBA picks.
Las Vegas Aces Preview
Las Vegas is one win from winning the WNBA title after taking three straight by single digits. Wilson has been the best player in the Finals, averaging 25.7 points and 9.7 rebounds in the postseason while anchoring the defense with more than two blocks per game. Jackie Young continues to hit key shots, scoring 20.6 points per game on 52% shooting and converting nearly all of her free throws.
Chelsea Gray has controlled tempo with 7.8 assists per game and few turnovers, keeping Las Vegas in front late and not letting pressure create turnovers. The Aces’ offense has stayed balanced with NaLyssa Smith adding scoring inside, and the bench playing when called upon. If Wilson stays active around the rim and Gray keeps the ball moving, Las Vegas will sweep the series and take home the title.
Phoenix Mercury Preview
Phoenix needs a win at home to avoid elimination after three close losses. Sabally leads the team at 18.4 points per game this postseason, adding 7.2 rebounds and shooting well from the line. Alyssa Thomas remains the team’s best overall contributor, averaging 17.2 points, 8.3 rebounds, and 8.7 assists while controlling most of the offense.
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Kahleah Copper adds 16.6 points per game and gives Phoenix a big threat on the perimeter. To extend the series, the Mercury must protect the ball and limit second-chance baskets after losing the rebounding margin in back-to-back games. The best shot for Phoenix is keeping the pace slower and forcing Las Vegas into more half-court sets.
Las Vegas Aces vs Phoenix Mercury Prediction
Las Vegas has been steadier in close games and continues to find answers on both ends through Wilson, Young, and Gray. Phoenix will make another late run behind Sabally and Thomas, but the Aces’ poise and shooting will be enough to win the title in four. Final Score Prediction: Las Vegas Aces win and cover ATS 88–83.
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Best Picks
- Las Vegas Aces -2.5
- Over 164.5
- A’ja Wilson over 25.5 points
