Las Vegas Aces vs Atlanta Dream Picks and Prediction for Sunday May 17 2026
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The Las Vegas Aces and Atlanta Dream will face off on Sunday, May 17, 2026, at State Farm Arena in Atlanta, Georgia, with tipoff scheduled for 1:30 PM. The game will air nationally on NBC and Peacock. Atlanta enters the matchup as a slight 1.5-point favorite with a moneyline of -118, while Las Vegas comes in at -102 on the moneyline. The total for the game is set at 172.5 after opening lower earlier in the betting market. Both teams enter this matchup in strong recent form, with Las Vegas holding a 3-1 record and Atlanta sitting at 2-0. Be sure to check out our free WNBA picks.
Las Vegas Carrying Momentum Into Atlanta
The Las Vegas Aces enter this game with a 3-1 overall record and an undefeated 3-0 mark on the road. Las Vegas has bounced back impressively after early losses and has now recently won over Connecticut twice while also picking up a dominant road victory against Los Angeles. The Aces most recently defeated Connecticut 101-94 after previously beating the same opponent 98-69. Before that, Las Vegas earned a 105-78 victory over Los Angeles. Earlier in the season, the Aces suffered losses against Phoenix and Dallas, but the recent stretch has clearly shifted momentum back in their favor.
Las Vegas has been one of the most explosive offensive teams early this season, averaging 92.5 points per game while shooting 54% from the field. The Aces are also averaging 23.0 assists and 35.0 rebounds per game. Defensively, Las Vegas has allowed 85.0 points per game while producing 7.5 blocks and 7.8 steals per contest. The offensive efficiency has stood out immediately, especially compared to several other teams around the league.
The biggest strength for Las Vegas has clearly been scoring efficiency. Averaging over 92 points per game while shooting 54% from the floor gives the Aces a major edge offensively entering this matchup. The assist numbers also show strong ball movement, and that offensive balance has been difficult for opponents to slow down during this recent winning streak.
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Atlanta Looking to Stay Unbeaten
The Atlanta Dream enter Sunday’s matchup with a 2-0 overall record and will be playing their first home game of the season. Atlanta recently won over Dallas 77-72 after narrowly defeating Minnesota 91-90 on the road. Dating back further, the Dream recently lost to Washington 83-72 after earning a road victory against Chicago and falling in another close matchup against Indiana. Atlanta has already shown an ability to win tight games this season, and that confidence could be important against a high-scoring Las Vegas team.
Atlanta is averaging 84.0 points per game while allowing just 81.0 points per contest. The Dream are shooting 40% from the field and averaging 45.0 rebounds per game, which is significantly higher than Las Vegas. Atlanta is also averaging 17.5 assists, 4.5 blocks, and 7.0 steals per game. While the shooting percentage has not been as strong as Las Vegas, Atlanta has been productive on the glass and has defended well through the opening games.
The key strength for Atlanta has been rebounding and defensive consistency. The Dream are averaging 45 rebounds per game while allowing only 81 points per contest. Those numbers suggest Atlanta is capable of slowing games down and creating extra opportunities through second-chance possessions. However, the shooting percentage remains noticeably lower than Las Vegas, and that could become an issue if the game turns into an offensive battle.
Las Vegas Aces vs Atlanta Dream Picks and Prediction
Las Vegas Aces vs Atlanta Dream Pick
- Pick: Las Vegas Aces Moneyline
Las Vegas enters this matchup playing excellent basketball over the last several games and has looked especially strong offensively. The Aces are averaging 92.5 points per game while shooting 54% from the field, both of which are significantly better than Atlanta’s offensive numbers. Las Vegas has also won three straight games, including two convincing victories against Connecticut and a dominant road win over Los Angeles. Atlanta has been solid defensively, but the offensive efficiency of Las Vegas gives the Aces the edge in this matchup.
Las Vegas Aces vs Atlanta Dream Total Pick
- Pick: Over 172.5
I am leaning toward the over because Las Vegas has consistently pushed games into high-scoring territory early this season. The Aces have scored at least 98 points in three straight games, and their pace offensively has been difficult to contain. Atlanta has defended well so far, but the Dream also showed they can score in games like the 91-90 matchup against Minnesota. With Las Vegas averaging over 92 points per game on its own, I think this total has a strong chance to go over.
Final Score Prediction: Las Vegas Aces 91 – Atlanta Dream 87
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