Las Vegas Aces vs Golden State Valkyries Picks and Prediction for Wednesday October 7 2026
The Las Vegas Aces visit the Golden State Valkyries at Chase Center in San Francisco, California, on Wednesday, October 7, 2026, for Game 2 of the WNBA semifinals. Tipoff is scheduled for 9:30 PM ET with coverage on Peacock and NBCSN. Golden State leads the series 1-0 after holding Las Vegas to just 60 points in a 71-60 victory Sunday. Las Vegas is 31-13 overall and 16-6 on the road, while Golden State is 32-12 overall and 17-5 at home. DraftKings lists the Valkyries as 1.5-point favorites at -110, with Las Vegas +1.5 at -110. The total has dropped from an opening 158.5 to 157.5, with the Over at -105 and Under at -115. Be sure to check out our free WNBA picks for more WNBA predictions throughout the playoffs.
Las Vegas Needs Its Offense Back
Sunday's result was completely out of character for Las Vegas. The Aces averaged 91.5 points per game while shooting 49% from the field this season, yet Golden State held them to only 60 points. That came after Las Vegas had scored at least 89 points in each of its previous four games, including performances of 100 and 102 points.
That makes Game 2 fascinating from a handicapping perspective. Was Sunday simply an awful offensive night, or did Golden State find something it can reproduce? Las Vegas averaged 22.0 assists per game and entered this series with one of the league's most efficient offenses, so expecting another 60-point performance would be aggressive.
The Aces don't necessarily need to turn Wednesday into a shootout. They simply need to rediscover enough of their normal offensive efficiency to prevent Golden State from dictating every possession. With the possibility of returning home in a 0-2 hole, Las Vegas should play with considerably more urgency.
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Golden State Has Earned the Favorite Role
Golden State didn't merely steal Game 1. The Valkyries controlled it defensively, holding an offense that averaged better than 91 points to 31.5 points below that season average. That's a significant accomplishment and another example of why Golden State finished 32-12.
The Valkyries average only 82.2 points themselves, so this isn't a team that needs to win through overwhelming offense. Golden State allows 80.3 points per game and has now won four of its last five, with three of those victories coming by holding the opponent to 75 points or fewer.
Chase Center also remains an important part of the handicap. Golden State went 17-5 at home and already used that advantage successfully in Game 1. Still, repeating Sunday's defensive dominance against an Aces team with its season suddenly under pressure will be much more difficult.
Las Vegas Aces vs Golden State Valkyries Picks and Prediction
Pick: Las Vegas Aces +1.5 (-110)
I'm taking Las Vegas +1.5 in Game 2. Golden State absolutely deserves credit for Sunday's defensive performance, but I'm reluctant to assume an offense that averaged 91.5 points and shot 49% throughout the season will be held anywhere near 60 again. Las Vegas also entered Game 1 having scored 94, 89, 102 and 100 points over its previous four games. Golden State can still win another close one, but getting the 1.5 points with a Las Vegas team facing the possibility of a 0-2 series deficit is enough for me to take the road underdog.
Pick: Under 157.5 (-115)
The Under remains the total pick despite the adjustment from 158.5 to 157.5. Game 1 produced only 131 total points, giving us considerable room before reaching Wednesday's number. Las Vegas should shoot better, but that doesn't mean this game suddenly needs to become a track meet. Golden State has consistently been comfortable playing lower-scoring basketball and has held three of its last five opponents to 75 points or fewer. Even with an Aces offensive improvement, something around 78-75 keeps this comfortably Under.
Final Picks: Las Vegas Aces +1.5 (-110) and Under 157.5 (-115)
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