Las Vegas Aces vs Phoenix Mercury Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Thursday September 24 2026
Thursday's Aces vs Mercury prediction features one of the league's hottest teams heading into Phoenix against a Mercury squad that has struggled for consistency. Tipoff is 10:00 PM ET, with Las Vegas entering at 30-13 on a six-game winning streak and Phoenix at 16-27. The Aces lead the season series 2-1, and their most recent win was a 106-58 blowout. The spread has moved from Las Vegas -9.5 to -10.5, and the total sits at 175.5 after bouncing between 174.5 and 176.5. A'ja Wilson's dominance inside and a Phoenix roster without Kelsey Plum make the Aces the side, and the scoring profiles point to an Over. For more daily betting edges, check out our full board of WNBA predictions.
TLDR: Quick Picks and Prediction
- Spread Pick: Las Vegas Aces -10.5 (-105)
- Total Pick: Over 175.5 (-115)
- Projected Final Score: Aces 96, Mercury 84
Odds and Line Movement
Current Odds
| Team | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Las Vegas Aces | -10.5 (-105) | Over 175.5 (-115) |
| Phoenix Mercury | +10.5 (-115) | Under 175.5 (-105) |
Line Movement - Spread
| Date | Las Vegas | Phoenix | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/24 | -10.5 (-105) | +10.5 (-115) | LV 91%, LV 86% |
| 09/24 | -10.5 (-102) | +10.5 (-118) | LV 91%, LV 86% |
| 09/24 | -9.5 (-118) | +9.5 (-102) | |
| 09/24 | -9.5 (-110) | +9.5 (-110) |
The spread has moved firmly toward Las Vegas. The Aces opened at -9.5 with even juice, and early action pushed the price to -118 before the book raised the number a full point to -10.5. The betting splits confirm the direction, with 91% of the money and 86% of the tickets on Las Vegas. Since the move to -10.5, the juice has shifted slightly back toward the Aces, from -102 to -105, while Phoenix went from -118 to -115. The one-point move is a cost for late Aces bettors, but the price at -10.5 is still close to even, and the matchup supports laying it.
Line Movement - Total
| Date | Over | Under | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/24 | 175.5 (-115) | 175.5 (-105) | |
| 09/24 | 176.5 (-105) | 176.5 (-115) | |
| 09/24 | 175.5 (-115) | 175.5 (-105) | |
| 09/24 | 175.5 (-110) | 175.5 (-110) | |
| 09/24 | 175.5 (-105) | 175.5 (-115) | |
| 09/24 | 175.5 (-108) | 175.5 (-112) | |
| 09/24 | 174.5 (-115) | 174.5 (-105) | |
| 09/24 | 174.5 (-110) | 174.5 (-110) | |
| 09/24 | 175.5 (-105) | 175.5 (-115) |
The total has moved around a lot, but the recent trend favors the Over. It opened at 175.5 with the Under juiced to -115, and the book dropped it to 174.5. Over money came in right away, pushing the price to -115 at 174.5 before the number returned to 175.5. The Over kept getting support at 175.5, moving from -105 to -110 to -115, and the book briefly raised the total to 176.5. It has since settled back at 175.5, with the Over again at -115. The market has shifted from leaning Under at the open to leaning Over now, and bettors can still get the Over at the opening number.
Aces vs Mercury Key Matchups and Game Preview
This matchup pairs a Las Vegas team playing its best basketball of the season against a Phoenix team that has been up and down. The Aces are 30-13 and have won six straight, including wins over Los Angeles, Seattle and Toronto. The Mercury are 16-27 and have split their last five. Las Vegas has the stronger roster, better efficiency on both ends and the momentum heading into Thursday.
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Aces Riding a Six-Game Win Streak
Las Vegas enters on a six-game winning streak and has handled this Mercury team well in the last two meetings. The Aces won 86-76 and then routed Phoenix 106-58, a 48-point margin in their most recent matchup. Phoenix did win the first meeting 99-66, but the last two results show how Las Vegas has pulled away in this series. The Aces are rolling, and they have already shown they can overwhelm the Mercury defense.
Mercury Searching for Consistency
Phoenix has struggled to find steady form, splitting its last five games. The Mercury's first win over Las Vegas this season was impressive, but they have since lost two straight to the Aces, including the 48-point loss. Without Kelsey Plum for the rest of the season, Phoenix has fewer ways to keep pace with a Las Vegas team that is scoring at a high level.
Las Vegas Holds the Efficiency Edge
The statistical profile strongly favors the Aces. Las Vegas averages 91.3 points per game while shooting 48% from the field, compared with Phoenix at 84.4 points and 44%. The Aces are also slightly better defensively, allowing 85.9 points per game to Phoenix's 87.3. Las Vegas leads in rebounding at 33.4 to 31.6, assists at 21.9 to 20.3 and blocks at 4.9 to 3.4. That is an edge in nearly every major category, and it explains why the Aces are double-digit road favorites.
Aces Star A'ja Wilson
A'ja Wilson is the engine of the Las Vegas attack. She averages 26.0 points and 9.4 rebounds per game while shooting 52.5% from the field. Wilson controls the interior on both ends, and she is the biggest reason the Aces lead in rebounding and blocks. Jackie Young supports her with a team-best 6.7 assists per game, giving Las Vegas a reliable playmaker to feed Wilson inside. Against a Phoenix frontcourt that averages fewer rebounds, Wilson should have another big night.
Phoenix Leans on Copper and Thomas
The Mercury have two players who can keep them competitive. Kahleah Copper leads Phoenix with 21.6 points per game and is the team's top scoring threat. Alyssa Thomas does a bit of everything, averaging 7.8 rebounds and an impressive 8.5 assists per game. Thomas's playmaking gives Phoenix a chance to create good shots, and Copper can score in bunches. These two are the main reason the Over is a good play, since they can keep Phoenix's scoring up even in a loss.
Mercury Without Kelsey Plum
Phoenix's injury situation makes this matchup even harder. Kelsey Plum is out for the season with a lower-leg injury, and Jovana Nogic is also unavailable. Plum's absence takes a key scorer and ball handler out of the lineup, putting more pressure on Copper and Thomas. Without Plum, Phoenix has less depth to match the Aces' offensive firepower.
Why the Aces Can Cover on the Road
A 10.5-point road spread requires a clear edge, and Las Vegas has several. The Aces have the better offense, the slightly better defense, the rebounding advantage, the momentum of a six-game streak and the best player on the floor in Wilson. They also beat Phoenix by 48 points in their most recent meeting. The market agrees, with 91% of the money on the Aces. A 12-point or larger win is very realistic.
LV vs PHX Betting Trends
Aces Trends
- Las Vegas enters Thursday at 30-13.
- The Aces have won six straight games.
- Las Vegas's recent wins include Los Angeles, Seattle and Toronto.
- The Aces lead the season series 2-1.
- Las Vegas beat Phoenix 106-58 in the most recent meeting.
- The Aces average 91.3 points per game on 48% shooting.
- Las Vegas has drawn 91% of the spread money and 86% of the tickets.
Mercury Trends
- Phoenix enters Thursday at 16-27.
- The Mercury have split their last five games.
- Phoenix won the first meeting 99-66.
- The Mercury have lost the last two meetings, 86-76 and 106-58.
- Phoenix averages 84.4 points per game and allows 87.3.
- The spread moved from Las Vegas -9.5 to -10.5.
LV vs PHX Key Injuries and Things To Know
Las Vegas Injury Report
- NaLyssa Smith – Out (leg)
Phoenix Injury Report
- Kelsey Plum – Out for the season (lower leg)
- Jovana Nogic – Unavailable
Things To Know About the Aces and Mercury
Both teams have injuries, but Phoenix's are more damaging. Losing Kelsey Plum for the season removes a key scorer and creator, leaving Copper and Thomas to carry more of the load. Jovana Nogic's absence also thins the Mercury rotation. That makes it harder for Phoenix to keep up with a Las Vegas team that has more offensive options.
The Aces are without NaLyssa Smith because of a leg injury, which reduces their frontcourt depth. But Las Vegas still has Wilson controlling the interior and Young running the offense, so the Aces keep the stronger top-end talent. Smith's absence is worth noting, but it doesn't change the overall edge Las Vegas holds in this matchup.
Aces vs Mercury Side and Over/Under Picks
Las Vegas Spread Pick
The spread pick is Las Vegas Aces -10.5 (-105). The Aces have won six straight, lead the season series and just beat Phoenix by 48 points. They hold edges in scoring, shooting, rebounding, assists and blocks, and Wilson gives them the most dominant player on the floor. Phoenix is without Plum, which limits its ability to keep pace.
The line moved a full point from -9.5 to -10.5, but the -105 juice keeps the price close to even. Bettors who can still find -9.5 at another book should take it, but -10.5 is a strong play given the gap between these teams. Wilson's interior dominance and the Aces' efficiency should create enough separation to cover.
Over Pick for Las Vegas at Phoenix
The total pick is Over 175.5 (-115). The Aces average 91.3 points per game, and the Mercury allow 87.3. Phoenix averages 84.4 points, while Las Vegas allows 85.9. Those numbers point to a combined total right around this line, and the Aces' current form suggests they could push their scoring higher.
Las Vegas has scored at a high level during its six-game streak, and Phoenix's defense has struggled against the Aces, as the 106-point outburst showed. Copper and Thomas give the Mercury enough scoring to hold up their end, even in a loss. The market has moved toward the Over as well, with the price climbing to -115 after opening with the Under favored. A final around 180 points fits this matchup.
Aces vs Mercury Final Score Prediction
- Projected Final Score: Aces 96, Mercury 84
- Winner: Las Vegas Aces
- Spread: Aces -10.5 (-105) covers
- Total: 180 points, Over 175.5 hits
Wilson should dominate inside, with Young setting up the Aces' offense and Las Vegas controlling the glass. Copper and Thomas keep Phoenix within range early and provide steady scoring throughout. But without Plum, the Mercury don't have enough depth to match the Aces' efficiency. Las Vegas pulls away in the second half. A 96-84 Aces win extends the streak to seven and cashes both the spread and the Over.
How to Wager On Aces vs Mercury
This matchup rewards backing the hottest team with the best player on the floor. The Aces -10.5 at -105 lays a double-digit number with a team that has won six straight and just beat Phoenix by 48. The line has already moved a point, so shop around for -9.5 before settling on -10.5.
The Over 175.5 fits the same game script: a strong Las Vegas offense against a Phoenix defense that has struggled with the Aces, with Copper and Thomas adding enough points to push the total. Bettors who like both plays can pair the Aces spread with the Over in a same-game parlay, since a high-scoring Las Vegas win helps both legs. Keep an eye on the total before tipoff, because it has moved between 174.5 and 176.5 throughout the day. Lock in your bets before the 10:00 PM ET tipoff.
For more ways to find value on games like this one, check out our breakdown of the top AI picks platforms. You can also read our Dimers review for simulation-based projections, or explore our Oddible review to see how another data-driven tool can help you find edges across the WNBA board.
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