Las Vegas Aces vs Seattle Storm Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Thursday September 17 2026
The Aces vs Storm matchup at Climate Pledge Arena features two teams trending in opposite directions, with Las Vegas riding a three-game winning streak into a Seattle club that has dropped four of its last five. Bettors looking for more value across the day's slate can check our WNBA picks hub before tipoff.
TLDR: Quick Picks and Prediction
- Spread Pick: Aces -10.5
- Total Pick: Under 174.5
- Projected Final Score: Aces 92, Storm 78
Odds and Line Movement
Las Vegas has moved up from -8.5 all the way to -10.5 as the market has continued to shift toward the Aces heading into tipoff. The total has held mostly steady between 173.5 and 174.5, with the public leaning both ways at different points. Below is the current market snapshot along with every tracked line movement entry.
Current Odds
| Market | Las Vegas | Seattle |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | -10.5 (-110) | +10.5 (-110) |
| Total | 174.5 (Over -110 / Under -110) | |
Line Movement - Spread
| Date | Las Vegas | Seattle | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/16 | -10.5 (-110) | +10.5 (-110) | LV 100%, LV 100% |
| 09/16 | -10.5 (-112) | +10.5 (-108) | LV 100%, LV 100% |
| 09/16 | -10.5 (-105) | +10.5 (-115) | LV 100%, LV 100% |
| 09/16 | -9.5 (-115) | +9.5 (-105) | LV 100%, LV 100% |
| 09/14 | -9.5 (-110) | +9.5 (-110) | LV 100%, LV 100% |
| 09/14 | -9.5 (-105) | +9.5 (-115) | LV 100%, LV 100% |
| 09/14 | -9.5 (-108) | +9.5 (-112) | LV 100%, LV 100% |
| 09/11 | -9.5 (-105) | +9.5 (-115) | LV 100%, LV 100% |
| 09/11 | -8.5 (-120) | +8.5 (+100) | LV 100%, LV 100% |
| 09/10 | -8.5 (-110) | +8.5 (-110) | LV 100%, LV 100% |
| 09/10 | -8.5 (-115) | +8.5 (-105) | LV 100%, LV 100% |
| 09/06 | -8.5 (-110) | +8.5 (-110) | LV 100%, LV 100% |
| 09/02 | -8.5 (-115) | +8.5 (-105) |
Line Movement - Total
| Date | Over | Under | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/17 | 174.5 (-110) | 174.5 (-110) | UN 83%, UN 67% |
| 09/17 | 174.5 (-105) | 174.5 (-115) | UN 83%, OV 50% |
| 09/17 | 173.5 (-118) | 173.5 (-102) | UN 83%, OV 50% |
| 09/16 | 173.5 (-112) | 173.5 (-108) | UN 83%, OV 50% |
| 09/10 | 173.5 (-110) | 173.5 (-110) | OV 100%, OV 100% |
| 09/10 | 173.5 (-115) | 173.5 (-105) | OV 100%, OV 100% |
| 09/02 | 173.5 (-110) | 173.5 (-110) |
Aces vs Storm: Key Matchups and Game Preview
Las Vegas enters this matchup at 27-13 and riding a three-game winning streak, while Seattle sits at 8-32 after dropping four of its last five. The Aces won the first meeting between these teams 101-91 on June 8, and the overall statistical profile again points toward Las Vegas. The Aces are averaging 90.6 points per game while allowing 86.5, compared with Seattle's 82.9 points scored and 88.2 allowed.
Las Vegas is also shooting an impressive 48% from the field compared with 43% for the Storm and holds a clear advantage in assists, 21.8 to 19.2, while Seattle has slight edges in rebounds, 34.1 to 33.6, and steals, 7.8 to 7.0.
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Las Vegas' Offensive Ceiling
A'ja Wilson continues to drive the Las Vegas offense, averaging 26.0 points and 9.4 rebounds per game while shooting 52.3% from the floor, and Chelsea Gray is adding a team-best 6.8 assists per game. Las Vegas has won three straight against Toronto (twice) and Connecticut after back-to-back losses to Atlanta and Minnesota.
Seattle's Offensive Limitations
Seattle leans heavily on Dominique Malonga, who is averaging 17.0 points and 9.0 rebounds while shooting 48.2%, while Natisha Hiedeman leads the Storm with 4.8 assists per game. Seattle's only win in its last five games came against Toronto, and the Storm's offensive limitations make the under attractive even with Las Vegas capable of reaching the 90s.
LV vs SEA Betting Trends
Aces Trends
- Winners of three straight games against Toronto (twice) and Connecticut
- 90.6 points per game while allowing 86.5
- 48% shooting from the field with a clear edge in assists
- Won the first meeting against Seattle 101-91
Storm Trends
- Dropped four of the last five games
- 82.9 points per game while allowing 88.2
- 43% shooting from the field, though holding slight edges in rebounds and steals
- Only win in the last five games came against Toronto
LV and SEA Key Injuries and Things To Know
Aces Injuries
- NaLyssa Smith - out for the season with a leg injury
Storm Injuries
- Katie Lou Samuelson - out for the season
- Ezi Magbegor - out for the season
- Jade Melbourne - game-time decision due to illness
- Jordan Horston - questionable with a shoulder issue
Aces vs Storm Side and Over/Under Picks
The Aces are favored by 10.5 points after opening at -8.5, with the total sitting at 174.5. Las Vegas' superior scoring efficiency, much stronger offensive ceiling and healthier rotation make the Aces the better side, although the double-digit spread leaves less room for error. Seattle's offensive limitations also make the under attractive even with Las Vegas capable of reaching the 90s.
- Spread Pick: Aces -10.5
- Total Pick: Under 174.5
Aces vs Storm Final Score Prediction
- Las Vegas Aces: 92
- Seattle Storm: 78
Wilson's efficiency and Las Vegas' deeper rotation should be enough to cover the double-digit number, while Seattle's thinned-out wing group and offensive struggles keep the total trending toward the under.
How to Wager On Aces vs Storm
Bettors have a few clear angles to build around in this matchup: Las Vegas -10.5, the total under 174.5, or pairing both given the Aces' offensive ceiling and Seattle's injury-riddled rotation. For more tools before locking in a wager, our AI picks hub breaks down model-driven projections for this matchup and others on the board. You can also check our Dimers review and our Oddible review for a closer look at how each platform's numbers compare with the current market on Aces vs Storm.
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