Minnesota Lynx vs Dallas Wings Picks and Prediction for Sunday June 28 2026
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The Minnesota Lynx and Dallas Wings meet at College Park Center in Arlington, Texas, on Sunday, June 28, 2026. Tipoff is scheduled for 2:00 PM ET with television coverage available on CBS and Paramount+. Minnesota enters as a 3.5-point favorite, with the Lynx listed at -155 on the moneyline and Dallas at +130. The total is listed at 178.5. ESPN Analytics gives Minnesota a 50.3 percent chance to win, while Dallas is close behind at 49.7 percent. Be sure to check out our free WNBA picks.
Minnesota Brings a Strong Road Record Into Arlington
Minnesota enters this matchup with a 14-4 overall record and an excellent 8-1 record away from home. The Lynx recently won over Washington, recently lost to Washington, recently won over Golden State, recently won over Los Angeles, and recently won over Portland. That gives Minnesota four wins in its last five games, with the only recent setback coming in a close result.
The Lynx are averaging 90.8 points per game while allowing 79.4 points per game. They are shooting 49 percent from the field, averaging 37.1 rebounds, 21.4 assists, 5.1 blocks, and 9.1 steals per game. Those numbers show a team that has been productive on both ends, especially with a scoring average that sits above 90 points per contest.
The biggest strength for Minnesota is its two-way balance. The Lynx score more than Dallas while allowing fewer points per game. They also have the edge in field goal percentage, rebounds, blocks, and steals. With an 8-1 road record and a narrow matchup predictor edge, Minnesota has several reasons to feel confident entering this game.
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Dallas Looks to Protect a Strong Home Court
Dallas comes into this game with an 11-7 overall record and a 6-2 mark at home. The Wings recently lost to Las Vegas, recently won over Seattle in overtime, recently won over Chicago, recently lost to Golden State, and recently won over Las Vegas. That gives Dallas three wins in its last five games and a strong home profile entering this matchup.
The Wings are averaging 89.1 points per game while giving up 85.7 points per game. Dallas is shooting 46 percent from the field while averaging 33.4 rebounds, 22.8 assists, 3.3 blocks, and 7.6 steals per game. The Wings have been productive offensively, and their assist average is slightly higher than Minnesota’s.
Dallas’ biggest strength is offensive movement. The Wings average 22.8 assists per game, which is better than Minnesota’s 21.4. However, the concern is on the defensive end, where Dallas allows 85.7 points per game compared to Minnesota’s 79.4. Against a team averaging 90.8 points, that defensive gap could matter.
Minnesota Lynx vs Dallas Wings Picks and Prediction
Minnesota Lynx vs Dallas Wings Pick
- Pick: Minnesota Lynx -3.5
Minnesota is my pick against the spread because the Lynx have the better overall record, the stronger road record, and the slight matchup predictor advantage. Dallas has been good at home, but Minnesota’s 8-1 road record stands out. The Lynx also have better numbers in points per game, points allowed, field goal percentage, rebounds, blocks, and steals. With those advantages, I like Minnesota to win and cover the 3.5-point spread.
Minnesota Lynx vs Dallas Wings Total Pick
- Pick: Under 178.5
I like the under because Minnesota allows only 79.4 points per game, and that defensive number is the strongest points-against figure in this matchup. Both teams can score, but Minnesota’s ability to limit opponents gives this game a path to stay just below the listed total. With Dallas allowing 85.7 points per game and Minnesota allowing 79.4, I see this landing close to the number but slightly under.
Final Score Prediction: Minnesota Lynx 88 – Dallas Wings 84
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