Minnesota Lynx vs New York Liberty WNBA Playoffs First Round Series 1 Game 2 Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Tuesday September 29 2026
History was made in Game 1, and now the betting market is asking whether it can happen again. This Lynx vs Liberty prediction breaks down Game 2 of their WNBA first-round playoff series on September 29 at 8:30 PM ET at Barclays Center, where New York holds a 1-0 series lead after a stunning 91-75 road win that made the Liberty the first No. 8 seed in WNBA history to beat a No. 1 seed in a playoff game under the current format. Despite that result, Minnesota is a 3.5-point road favorite, New York is +130 on the moneyline, and the total sits at 172.5. The market expects the Lynx to bounce back, but Breanna Stewart's dominance and New York's track record against Minnesota make the home underdog worth a serious look. Below, we cover the odds, line movement, matchups, and injuries before locking in our best bets. For more daily handicapping, check out our WNBA predictions.
TLDR: Quick Picks and Prediction
- Spread Pick: Liberty +3.5 (-115)
- Total Pick: Under 172.5 (-105)
- Projected Final Score: Liberty 86, Lynx 82
- Game Info: September 29, 8:30 PM ET, Barclays Center, Liberty lead series 1-0
Odds and Line Movement
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Lynx | Not listed | -3.5 (-105) | Over 172.5 (-115) |
| New York Liberty | +130 | +3.5 (-115) | Under 172.5 (-105) |
Line Movement - Spread
| Date | Minnesota | New York | Public (Handle %, Bets %) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/29 | -3.5 -105 | +3.5 -115 | MIN 67%, MIN 59% |
| 09/29 | -3.5 -110 | +3.5 -110 | MIN 67%, MIN 65% |
| 09/28 | -3.5 -105 | +3.5 -115 | MIN 82%, MIN 73% |
| 09/28 | -3.5 -108 | +3.5 -112 | MIN 82%, MIN 78% |
| 09/28 | -2.5 -115 | +2.5 -105 | NY 81%, MIN 67% |
| 09/28 | -2.5 -118 | +2.5 -102 | NY 81%, MIN 67% |
| 09/27 | -2.5 -115 | +2.5 -105 | NY 100%, NY 100% |
| 09/27 | -2.5 -110 | +2.5 -110 | NY 100%, NY 100% |
This spread has taken a winding path. It opened with Minnesota -2.5, and the earliest action was entirely on New York, with the Liberty holding 100% of both bets and handle on September 27. On September 28, the tide turned. Minnesota took over the majority of bets and eventually 82% of the handle, pushing the line through the key number from 2.5 to 3.5. Since then, the Lynx's share of the money has cooled to 67% of the handle and 59% of bets, and the juice has shifted back toward New York, with the Liberty now priced at -115 at +3.5. That late price adjustment tells us buyback money has arrived on the home underdog at the higher number. For Liberty backers, grabbing the hook at 3.5 is a meaningful improvement over the opener.
Line Movement - Total
| Date | Over | Under | Public (Handle %, Bets %) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/29 | 173.5 -105 | 173.5 -115 | OV 100%, OV 80% |
| 09/29 | 172.5 -115 | 172.5 -105 | OV 100%, OV 80% |
| 09/29 | 173.5 -105 | 173.5 -115 | OV 100%, OV 80% |
| 09/29 | 172.5 -115 | 172.5 -105 | OV 100%, OV 80% |
| 09/29 | 173.5 -105 | 173.5 -115 | OV 100%, OV 80% |
| 09/29 | 172.5 -115 | 172.5 -105 | OV 100%, OV 80% |
| 09/29 | 173.5 -105 | 173.5 -115 | OV 100%, OV 80% |
| 09/29 | 172.5 -115 | 172.5 -105 | OV 100%, OV 80% |
| 09/29 | 173.5 -105 | 173.5 -115 | OV 100%, OV 80% |
| 09/29 | 172.5 -115 | 172.5 -105 | OV 100%, OV 80% |
| 09/29 | 173.5 -105 | 173.5 -115 | OV 100%, OV 80% |
| 09/29 | 172.5 -115 | 172.5 -105 | OV 100%, OV 80% |
| 09/29 | 173.5 -105 | 173.5 -115 | OV 100%, OV 80% |
| 09/29 | 172.5 -115 | 172.5 -105 | OV 100%, OV 80% |
| 09/29 | 173.5 -105 | 173.5 -115 | OV 100%, OV 80% |
| 09/29 | 172.5 -115 | 172.5 -105 | OV 100%, OV 80% |
| 09/29 | 173.5 -105 | 173.5 -115 | OV 100%, OV 80% |
| 09/29 | 172.5 -115 | 172.5 -105 | OV 100%, OV 80% |
The total has been flipping rapidly between 172.5 and 173.5 on September 29, with the price swinging between -105 and -115 on each side every time the number changes. The public action could not be more lopsided, as the over holds 100% of the handle and 80% of bets. Yet the market refuses to settle above 173.5, repeatedly dropping back to 172.5. When a total draws every dollar on one side and still cannot hold a higher number, it suggests sportsbooks are comfortable taking over money at this range. For under bettors, the best approach is to target the 173.5 when it appears, since it offers an extra point of cushion, but the under at 172.5 is still a strong contrarian position.
Lynx vs Liberty Key Matchups and Game Preview
Breanna Stewart Is the Lynx's Biggest Problem
Breanna Stewart completely controlled Game 1, producing 34 points, 12 rebounds, and six assists while shooting 11-of-18 from the floor. That is a complete performance, and it highlights the biggest matchup question entering Game 2. Stewart can attack Minnesota both inside and from the perimeter, which makes her extremely difficult to game-plan against. If the Lynx put a bigger defender on her, she can take them outside. If they go smaller, she can punish them in the post. Stewart averaged 20.8 points per game during the regular season, so the opener was an elevated version of what she brings every night, not an outlier.
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Liberty Supporting Cast: Jones and Ionescu
Stewart does not carry New York alone. Jonquel Jones averaged 9.1 rebounds per game, giving the Liberty a strong presence on the glass, and Sabrina Ionescu averaged 4.7 assists as the team's primary distributor. Jones returned for Game 1 and played meaningful minutes, which gives New York a more complete frontcourt heading into Game 2. The combination of Stewart's scoring, Jones' rebounding, and Ionescu's playmaking makes the Liberty a balanced team that can win in multiple ways.
Minnesota Must Fix Its Shooting
The Lynx shot only 35% in Game 1, and that number explains most of the 16-point loss. Nia Brodie led Minnesota with 16 points, but the offense never found a rhythm against New York's pressure. Minnesota should respond with a stronger offensive performance facing elimination, but New York's defense deserves credit for creating those struggles. Better shooting from the Lynx is expected, yet it is fair to question how much improvement is realistic against a defense that just held them to 75 points.
Lynx Offense Runs Through Olivia Miles
Olivia Miles led Minnesota at 19.8 points and 6.0 assists per game during the season, but she struggled against New York's pressure in Game 1, finishing with eight rebounds while failing to take over offensively. The Lynx need Miles to be far more productive in Game 2. Natasha Howard averaged a team-high 7.6 rebounds, giving Minnesota a presence inside that can help counter Jones on the glass. If Miles finds her scoring rhythm and Howard controls the boards, Minnesota has the talent to even the series.
New York's Turnover Issue
The one glaring flaw in New York's Game 1 win was ball security. The Liberty committed 21 turnovers, a number that would normally sink a team in the playoffs. New York still won by 16, which speaks to how poorly Minnesota converted those extra possessions. If the Lynx can turn those turnovers into more efficient scoring, this game becomes far more competitive. New York has to clean this up, but even a modest improvement would make the Liberty a dangerous home team.
Liberty Home Court vs Lynx Road Success
New York returns home after going 14-8 at Barclays Center during the regular season. Minnesota, however, was excellent on the road, going 18-4, so the venue alone does not give the Liberty a decisive edge. What does matter is recent history. New York has consistently given Minnesota problems, and returning home with a series lead only adds to the Liberty's confidence.
MIN vs NY Betting Trends
Liberty Have Owned This Matchup
- New York won two of three regular-season meetings against Minnesota.
- The Liberty beat the Lynx 93-81 on September 18.
- New York won Game 1 of this series 91-75 on the road.
- The Liberty went 14-8 at Barclays Center during the regular season.
- Minnesota went 18-4 on the road during the regular season.
Minnesota Money Moved the Spread
- The spread opened with Minnesota -2.5 and moved to -3.5.
- New York held 100% of bets and handle on September 27.
- Minnesota's handle share peaked at 82% on September 28 before cooling to 67%.
- The Liberty's price at +3.5 has moved to -115, signaling buyback on the underdog.
Lynx-Liberty Total Bouncing Between 172.5 and 173.5
- The total has flipped between 172.5 and 173.5 repeatedly on September 29.
- The over holds 100% of the handle and 80% of bets.
- Despite the one-sided action, the number keeps returning to 172.5.
- Game 1 finished with 166 total points.
MIN vs NY Key Injuries and Things To Know
Minnesota Injury Report
- Olivia Miles: Returned for Game 1 and played meaningful minutes.
- Anastasiia Olairi Kosu: Out with a foot injury.
New York Injury Report
- Breanna Stewart: Returned for Game 1 and played meaningful minutes.
- Jonquel Jones: Returned for Game 1 and played meaningful minutes.
- Satou Sabally: Out for the season with a concussion.
- Elizabeth Balogun: Unavailable.
Things To Know Before Betting the Lynx
The injury picture is relatively favorable for the primary stars on both sides, with Miles, Stewart, and Jones all back and playing meaningful minutes in Game 1. That means neither team can point to a major absence as an excuse. Minnesota's biggest concern is not health, it is performance. The Lynx shot 35% and still have to prove they can solve New York's defensive pressure. Minnesota is facing elimination, so expect a desperate effort, but desperation does not automatically translate into efficiency. On the New York side, the losses of Satou Sabally and Elizabeth Balogun thin the rotation, yet the Liberty still won comfortably without them in Game 1.
Lynx vs Liberty Side and Over/Under Picks
Liberty Spread Pick
Minnesota should respond with a better offensive performance, and that is exactly why the Lynx are favored. But the points are valuable here. New York has won three of four meetings this season, including the last two, and Stewart's current form gives the Liberty a player capable of taking over at any moment. The line has also moved from 2.5 to 3.5, giving us the hook, and the recent juice adjustment toward New York suggests the market is starting to back the home underdog at this number. We project a Liberty win, but even a close Minnesota victory would leave the +3.5 in play.
- Pick: Liberty +3.5 (-115)
Under 172.5 Pick for Lynx vs Liberty
The public is all over the over, but the matchup points toward a controlled, physical game. Game 1 finished with 166 total points, well under this number, and New York's defensive pressure held Minnesota to 35% shooting. Even with a better offensive performance from the Lynx, an elimination game tends to bring more intensity and physicality on defense. New York's turnover problem could create extra possessions, but Minnesota showed in Game 1 that it struggles to convert those opportunities efficiently. With 100% of the handle on the over and the number refusing to climb past 173.5, the under is the sharper side.
- Pick: Under 172.5 (-105)
Lynx vs Liberty Final Score Prediction
We expect Minnesota to come out with urgency, with Miles playing a much bigger role and the Lynx shooting better than they did in Game 1. But Stewart should once again be the best player on the floor, with Jones controlling the glass and Ionescu keeping the offense organized. The game stays tight into the fourth quarter before New York makes the key plays down the stretch to close out the series at home.
- Projected Final Score: Liberty 86, Lynx 82
- Spread: Liberty +3.5 (-115) cashes
- Total: Under 172.5 (-105) cashes with 168 combined points
How to Wager On Minnesota vs New York
The Liberty offer two strong paths. The spread at +3.5 is the safer play, covering in a New York win or a Minnesota victory by three or fewer points. The moneyline at +130 carries more upside, and since we project an outright Liberty win, it is worth considering as a smaller play alongside the spread. The key on the spread is locking in the +3.5 rather than settling for +2.5, since the half-point on the key number of three matters in a game projected to be this close.
On the total, patience pays. The number has been flipping between 172.5 and 173.5 all morning, so under bettors should look for the 173.5 whenever it appears. Because we project a close, defensive game, the Liberty and the under are correlated, making a pairing of the two a logical approach. Watch the pregame reports for any changes to the Minnesota or New York rotations, especially any updates on Miles, Stewart, or Jones.
For more data-driven ways to approach WNBA playoff games like this one, explore our guide to AI picks, read our Dimers review for model-based projections, and check out our Oddible review for another tool to sharpen your betting strategy.
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