New York Liberty vs Las Vegas Aces Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Thursday July 30 2026
The New York Liberty and Las Vegas Aces meet Thursday at 10:00 PM ET, and this WNBA predictions preview breaks down why New York's recent form and a prior head-to-head win make 5.5 points a slightly uncomfortable number even with Las Vegas holding home-court advantage.
TLDR: Quick Picks and Prediction
- Spread: New York +5.5
- Total: Under 181.5
- Final Score Prediction: Aces 91, Liberty 88
Odds and Line Movement
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| New York Liberty | +170 | 5½ (-114) | Over 181.5 |
| Las Vegas Aces | - | -5½ (-106) | Under 181.5 |
Line Movement - Spread
| Date | Time | New York | Las Vegas | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/30 | 09:56:52AM | 5½ (-114) | -5½ (-106) | NY 74%, 68% |
| 07/30 | 09:49:02AM | 5½ (-108) | -5½ (-112) | NY 74%, 68% |
| 07/30 | 09:08:32AM | 6½ (-117) | -6½ (-104) | NY 73%, 65% |
| 07/30 | 09:08:32AM | 6½ (-117) | -6½ (-104) | NY 74%, 67% |
| 07/30 | 08:26:02AM | 5½ (-105) | -5½ (-115) | NY 73%, 63% |
| 07/30 | 08:10:12AM | 6½ (-112) | -6½ (-108) | NY 73%, 63% |
| 07/30 | 07:14:42AM | 5½ (-103) | -5½ (-117) | NY 73%, 63% |
| 07/30 | 07:10:52AM | 5½ (-103) | -5½ (-117) | NY 73%, 65% |
| 07/30 | 04:01:42AM | 5½ (-109) | -5½ (-111) | NY 84%, 69% |
| 07/30 | 02:29:41AM | 5½ (-109) | -5½ (-111) | NY 91%, 73% |
| 07/30 | 02:29:41AM | 5½ (-109) | -5½ (-111) | NY 91%, 73% |
| 07/30 | 01:36:51AM | 5½ (-109) | -5½ (-111) | NY 91%, 73% |
| 07/30 | 01:36:51AM | 5½ (-109) | -5½ (-111) | NY 91%, 73% |
| 07/30 | 01:17:21AM | 5½ (-102) | -5½ (-118) | NY 91%, 73% |
| 07/30 | 00:01:21AM | 5½ (-112) | -5½ (-108) | NY 94%, 80% |
| 07/29 | 11:06:41PM | 4½ (-105) | -4½ (-115) | NY 94%, 80% |
| 07/29 | 08:12:48PM | 4½ (-110) | -4½ (-110) | NY 94%, 78% |
| 07/29 | 08:12:48PM | 4½ (-110) | -4½ (-110) | LV 71%, 29% |
| 07/29 | 03:22:33PM | 4½ (-115) | -4½ (-105) | LV 71%, 29% |
| 07/29 | 03:22:33PM | 4½ (-115) | -4½ (-105) | LV 73%, 50% |
| 07/29 | 02:23:33PM | 4½ (-115) | -4½ (-105) | LV 66%, 33% |
| 07/29 | 02:11:38PM | - | - | LV 66%, 33% |
| 07/29 | 02:11:38PM | - | - | LV 66%, 33% |
| 07/29 | 02:10:57PM | 4½ (-105) | -4½ (-105) | LV 66%, 33% |
| 07/29 | 00:44:37AM | 3½ (-115) | -3½ (-105) | LV 66%, 33% |
| 07/29 | 00:44:37AM | 3½ (-115) | -3½ (-105) | LV 66%, 33% |
Line Movement - Total
| Date | Time | Over | Under | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/30 | 07:14:42AM | 181½ -113 | 181½u -107 | O 59%, 54% |
| 07/30 | 04:01:42AM | 181½ -108 | 181½u -112 | O 94%, 60% |
| 07/30 | 02:29:41AM | 181½ -112 | 181½u -108 | O 89%, 56% |
| 07/30 | 02:15:01AM | 182½ -106 | 182½u -114 | O 89%, 56% |
| 07/29 | 03:22:33PM | 181½ -110 | 181½u -110 | O 62%, 67% |
| 07/29 | 02:11:38PM | - | - | O 62%, 67% |
| 07/29 | 02:10:57PM | 181½ -110 | 181½u -110 | O 62%, 67% |
Liberty vs Aces Key Matchups and Game Preview
Liberty Riding a Three-Game Streak
The Aces enter at 19-8 and sit second in the Western Conference, while the 16-12 Liberty are third in the Eastern Conference and have won three consecutive games. New York's current streak includes a 113-109 win at Los Angeles, a 95-94 victory over Chicago and a 99-98 overtime win at Dallas. Before that run, the Liberty lost 108-88 at Indiana and 93-91 at Toronto, giving them a 3-2 record over their last five.
Aces Also 3-2 Over Last Five
Las Vegas has also gone 3-2 during its last five, defeating Portland 98-83, Toronto 109-83 and Phoenix 106-58 while losing 100-99 at Washington and 109-75 against Indiana. New York won the first meeting between these teams 87-76 in Las Vegas on June 23, so the Liberty have already demonstrated that they can disrupt the Aces despite entering this rematch as a sizable underdog.
Las Vegas' Offensive Profile
Las Vegas owns the better season-long offensive profile, averaging 91.3 points on 49% shooting compared with New York's 89.4 points on 46%. The Aces also average 22.4 assists, 5.0 blocks and 7.2 steals, while allowing 86.2 points per game. New York permits 87.0 points and holds a slight rebounding advantage at 34.5 per contest compared with Las Vegas' 34.1.
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Wilson and Gray Lead Las Vegas
A'ja Wilson drives the Aces with 26.2 points and 9.7 rebounds per game while shooting 53.7%, and Chelsea Gray averages 7.3 assists. Breanna Stewart leads New York with 21.4 points, while Jonquel Jones contributes 9.1 rebounds.
Injuries Create Concern for the Liberty
Injuries create the greatest concern for the Liberty, who will be without Satou Sabally, Marine Johannes and Leonie Fiebich, reducing their depth, shooting and defensive versatility. Las Vegas is missing Kierstan Bell and Cheyenne Parker-Tyus, while NaLyssa Smith is a game-time decision with an undisclosed issue.
NY and LV Betting Trends
Las Vegas is listed as a 5.5-point home favorite, New York is priced at +170 on the moneyline and the total is set at 181.5 points. New York's recent close wins show its resilience, but asking a short rotation to contain Wilson and Gray for four quarters is difficult against a Las Vegas team playing at home.
NY and LV Injuries and Things to Know
- Satou Sabally (New York) remains unavailable.
- Marine Johannes and Leonie Fiebich (New York) are also out, reducing depth and shooting.
- Kierstan Bell and Cheyenne Parker-Tyus (Las Vegas) are unavailable.
- NaLyssa Smith (Las Vegas) is a game-time decision with an undisclosed issue.
Liberty vs Aces Side and Over/Under Picks
Liberty Side Pick
Take New York +5.5. Las Vegas has the stronger offense, healthier primary rotation and home-court advantage, but the Liberty's recent form and prior head-to-head win make 5.5 points slightly uncomfortable to lay.
Total Pick
Take the under 181.5. Both teams have shown they can grind out close, low-margin games recently, and New York's shorthanded rotation should slow the pace even against a potent Las Vegas offense.
Final Score Prediction
Aces Hold Off New York
Las Vegas has the stronger offense, healthier primary rotation and home-court advantage, and that combination should be enough to hold off a resilient Liberty team in a close finish.
- Final Score: Aces 91, Liberty 88
- Spread: New York +5.5
- Total: Under 181.5
How to Wager on Aces vs Liberty
Bettors looking to expand this Aces-Liberty matchup into a bigger card have several resources worth checking out. For model-driven projections across today's full WNBA slate, visit the AI picks hub. Those wanting additional angles on the spread and total in this matchup can also review the Dimers review and the Oddible review before placing a wager on Thursday's matchup.
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