New York Liberty vs Las Vegas Aces Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Tuesday June 23 2026
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Tuesday night's only WNBA matchup at Michelob Ultra Arena brings together two of the league's premier teams in a game that has all the ingredients for a high-scoring showcase — elite scorers, quality creation, and two offenses averaging over 89 points per game. Before finalizing your card, check out the latest WNBA picks for sharp angles across the full Tuesday slate. Here is the complete breakdown ahead of the 10:00PM ET tip-off between the New York Liberty and Las Vegas Aces.
TLDR: Quick Picks and Prediction
- Best Bet: Las Vegas Aces -2.5
- Total Pick: Over 178.5
- Projected Final Score: Aces 93, Liberty 89
Odds and Line Movement
Current Odds
| Team | Spread |
|---|---|
| New York Liberty | +2½ -110 |
| Las Vegas Aces | -2½ -110 |
Line Movement - Spread
| Date | Time | New York | Las Vegas | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/23 | 09:31:01AM | 2½ -110 | -2½ -110 | LV 71%, LV 83% |
| 06/23 | 12:25:50AM | 2½ -115 | -2½ -105 | LV 100%, LV 100% |
| 06/23 | 12:20:00AM | 2½ -118 | -2½ -102 | LV 100%, LV 100% |
| 06/23 | 12:20:00AM | |||
| 06/23 | 12:19:50AM | 1½ -102 | -1½ -118 | LV 100%, LV 100% |
| 06/21 | 06:04:10PM | 1½ -105 | -1½ -115 |
Line Movement - Total
| Date | Time | Over | Under | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/23 | 09:26:40AM | 178½ -108 | 178½ -112 | OV 100%, OV 100% |
| 06/23 | 07:18:40AM | 177½ -110 | 177½ -110 | OV 100%, OV 100% |
| 06/23 | 07:06:31AM | 176½ -110 | 176½ -105 | OV 100%, OV 100% |
| 06/23 | 01:07:10AM | 176½ -108 | 176½ -112 | OV 100%, OV 100% |
| 06/23 | 01:07:10AM | |||
| 06/23 | 12:44:30AM | 175½ -112 | 175½ -108 | OV 100%, OV 100% |
| 06/23 | 12:16:32AM | 175½ -108 | 175½ -112 | OV 100%, OV 100% |
| 06/23 | 12:16:32AM | |||
| 06/22 | 09:20:50PM | 174½ -115 | 174½ -105 | OV 100%, OV 100% |
| 06/22 | 08:01:21PM | 174½ -108 | 174½ -112 | OV 100%, OV 100% |
| 06/22 | 08:01:01PM | 174½ -110 | 174½ -110 | OV 100%, OV 100% |
| 06/22 | 06:08:21PM | 174½ -108 | 174½ -112 | OV 100%, OV 100% |
| 06/22 | 06:08:21PM | |||
| 06/22 | 05:54:52PM | 173½ -112 | 173½ -108 | OV 100%, OV 100% |
| 06/22 | 05:51:22PM | 173½ -108 | 173½ -112 | OV 100%, OV 100% |
| 06/22 | 05:13:21PM | 173½ -105 | 173½ -115 | OV 100%, OV 100% |
| 06/22 | 05:13:21PM | |||
| 06/22 | 05:13:11PM | 172½ -112 | 172½ -108 | OV 100%, OV 100% |
| 06/22 | 05:11:51PM | 173½ -105 | 173½ -115 | OV 100%, OV 100% |
| 06/22 | 05:11:51PM | |||
| 06/22 | 04:40:41PM | 172½ -112 | 172½ -108 | OV 100%, OV 100% |
| 06/22 | 03:43:01PM | 172½ -110 | 172½ -110 | OV 100%, OV 100% |
| 06/22 | 09:34:51AM | 172½ -112 | 172½ -108 | OV 100%, OV 100% |
| 06/22 | 04:50:31AM | 172½ -105 | 172½ -115 | OV 100%, OV 100% |
Liberty vs Aces Key Matchups and Game Preview
The individual matchup between Breanna Stewart and A'ja Wilson is the defining storyline of this game — two of the best players in WNBA history sharing a floor in a game with real Western Conference implications. Wilson enters Tuesday averaging 25.7 points and 9.1 rebounds per game while shooting 52.7% from the field, numbers that place her in a tier above essentially every other player in the league right now. Her efficiency advantage is meaningful in a game projected to be decided by single digits — Wilson can generate quality looks in the flow of the offense, in post-up situations, and off screens, giving Las Vegas multiple pathways to scoring that do not require isolation or pick-and-roll creation.
Stewart is New York's answer, averaging 19.4 points per game with 45.1% shooting from the field and 86.3% from the free-throw line. The production is elite and the versatility is real — Stewart can score from the perimeter, attack the basket, and draw fouls at a high rate. But the six-point scoring gap between Wilson and Stewart is the widest individual edge in this game, and it manifests over the course of a 40-minute contest. Chelsea Gray's 7.3 assists per game give Las Vegas the better half-court creation weapon, and that playmaking depth allows the Aces to run multiple actions while keeping the ball in the hands of their best decision-makers.
Jonquel Jones contributes 9.1 rebounds per game for New York and provides an interior presence that can challenge Las Vegas on the glass, but the rebounding matchup is not where this game is won or lost. It comes down to whether New York can slow Wilson enough to keep the game within a possession or two, and whether Stewart can match Wilson's production closely enough to offset the Aces' home-court advantage and recent momentum.
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The offensive profiles are nearly identical at the team level. Las Vegas averages 90.1 points per game to New York's 89.1, and the Aces' 49% field goal percentage versus the Liberty's 46% reflects a small but consistent efficiency edge that compounds over a full game. Defense is where Las Vegas is marginally more vulnerable — the Aces allow 85.7 points per game compared to New York's 83.5 — but both defenses are permissive enough to support a high-scoring result. The Aces lead in assists, blocks, and steals, which is the kind of defensive activity profile that generates transition opportunities and disrupts New York's half-court sets.
Las Vegas has won two straight, including a dominant 92-73 result in their most recent game, and carries home-court advantage in a building where they are 4-2 on the season. New York has dropped two consecutive games in close fashion and enters this matchup with some questions about whether the roster can right the ship against a top-tier opponent. The Aces are the right side.
Betting Trends - NY and LV
The spread movement in this game is one of the more dramatic line shifts on the Tuesday board. Las Vegas opened at -1.5 on 06/21, a modest home favorite price that reflected the early-market uncertainty about this matchup. By Tuesday morning, the line had moved to -2.5 — a full-point jump in the Aces' direction — driven by overwhelming Las Vegas action at every tracked interval. Public money registered at 100% Las Vegas on both dollars and tickets across three consecutive logged periods around midnight on 06/23, and the market responded by moving the number from -1.5 to -2.5. By 09:31AM, the Aces still held 71% of dollars and 83% of tickets. The line has settled at -2.5 / -110 on both sides — a balanced endpoint after absorbing a sustained wave of Las Vegas action.
The total tells an even more compelling story. The line opened at 172½ on 06/22 and has moved to 178½ by Tuesday morning — a full six-point jump across approximately 29 hours of tracked action. At every single logged interval with public data, the over has drawn 100% of both dollars and tickets without exception. That is the most sustained, unanimous public over action in any game tracked across this entire Tuesday slate. The market has responded by moving the total from 172½ to 178½ and shifting the over to only -108 juice — the under is now carrying more juice at -112 — but the public continues to hammer the over despite the line moving against them. When the over draws 100% at every interval and the line has moved six full points and the over still carries only slight juice, the market has validated the over rather than neutralized it.
Key Injuries and Things To Know - NY and LV
Las Vegas is missing Janiah Barker, Chennedy Carter, and Dana Evans from their roster. Carter's absence is the most operationally significant — she provides backcourt depth and second-unit scoring that the Aces lean on when the starters need rest. Evans is similarly important for the second-unit creation and ball-handling, and her unavailability compounds Carter's absence to create a genuine rotation concern for the Las Vegas bench. The starting lineup remains elite with Wilson and Gray, but the depth behind them is thinner than the Aces would prefer in a game that projects to be contested and could extend to late-game situations requiring fresh legs.
New York enters without any noted absences from the primary rotation, which is a meaningful contrast to the Aces' depth situation. The Liberty's full availability means Stewart and Jones will have appropriate rest and backup support throughout the game. That depth advantage is one of the factors that keeps this game competitive despite the talent gap between Wilson and the available New York options at the same position.
The practical implication of Las Vegas's depth losses is that Gray and Wilson will carry a heavier load than usual in a game that projects to feature sustained two-way scoring. If the game goes to overtime or requires extended fourth-quarter minutes from the starters, the Aces could face fatigue issues in the closing stretch. That context supports New York staying in the game behind Stewart's efficiency and the Liberty's fresher rotation — though it does not change the side pick on Las Vegas given Wilson's dominance and the home-court edge.
Liberty vs Aces Side and Over/Under Picks
- Best Bet — Aces -2.5: Wilson's 25.7-point average, 52.7% shooting, and 9.1 rebounds per game represent the widest individual talent gap in this matchup, and that gap is the primary driver of the Aces covering a modest 2.5-point number at home. Las Vegas won two straight, including a 19-point blowout in their most recent game, and the home-court advantage at a venue where they are 4-2 adds to the case. The spread moved from -1.5 to -2.5 on 100% public action, but the underlying logic is sound: Wilson against a New York team on a two-game skid is a matchup that favors the Aces covering a small number.
- Total Pick — Over 178.5: The total has moved six full points from 172½ to 178½ on 100% public over action at every single tracked interval — a historic level of over consensus that the market has validated rather than faded. Both teams average over 89 points per game. Both defenses allow more than 83 points per game. Wilson scores 25.7 per game and Stewart adds 19.4 in a game with two elite half-court offenses and relatively permissive defenses. A final score of 93-89 totals 182 runs — four points over the posted number. The conditions are right, the market has confirmed it, and the over is the play at -108.
Final Score Prediction
Wilson dominates the scoring in the first half, and Gray's creation opens additional opportunities for the Aces' role players. Stewart keeps New York within striking distance through her free-throw drawing and perimeter shooting, and Jones provides a second-half interior spark. Las Vegas's bench depth issues allow New York to cut the lead in the fourth quarter, but Wilson delivers the key late-game score to seal the Aces' third consecutive win. The total clears 178.5 on the combined production of two elite offensive units.
Aces 93, Liberty 89
How to Wager On Liberty vs Aces
Tuesday night's marquee WNBA matchup features one of the clearest spread plays on the board — a home favorite with the league's best player getting a manageable number — and an over with the most sustained unanimous public support of any game tracked on Tuesday. Here is how to approach getting both plays down before the 10:00PM ET tip.
The Las Vegas -2.5 case is anchored in Wilson's scoring efficiency, Gray's creation, and home-court advantage. Before committing, running a projection that accounts for Carter and Evans being unavailable from the Las Vegas rotation — and for how New York's depth advantage could affect the closing minutes — gives you a model-based read on whether -2.5 is the right number or whether the Liberty's fresher bench could close the gap late. AI picks can factor in both teams' current form, injury contexts, and the spread movement history to validate the play before tip-off.
The total has moved six full points from 172½ to 178½ across 29 hours of tracked action, and finding the best available number at or near -108 on the over before any further movement is worth a quick line check. The Dimers review covers one of the best real-time line comparison tools available for WNBA totals — particularly useful in a game where the total has been moving consistently and a point or two of variance across books can affect your payout on a high-number total like 178½.
The over drawing 100% of both dollars and tickets at every single tracked interval across nearly 30 hours — while the market moved the number six points rather than fading it — is the single most sustained market-validated over signal in any game on Tuesday. The Oddible review covers a platform built to distinguish between public consensus that the market fades and public consensus that the market confirms. This total is a clear example of the latter — and Oddible is the right tool to verify that distinction before committing to a total that has already moved this significantly.
Monitor any last-minute updates on Carter and Evans before 10:00PM ET. Their availability — while currently listed as unavailable — could affect Las Vegas's rotation depth in ways that matter for the closing minutes of a game projected to go down to a five-point final margin.
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