New York Liberty vs Minnesota Lynx Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Friday September 18 2026
The Liberty vs Lynx matchup at Target Center pits two playoff-bound teams against each other with real postseason positioning on the line. Bettors looking for more value across the day's slate can check our WNBA picks hub before tipoff.
TLDR: Quick Picks and Prediction
- Spread Pick: Liberty +6.5
- Total Pick: Under 177.5
- Projected Final Score: Lynx 89, Liberty 85
Odds and Line Movement
Minnesota has moved between 6.5 and 7.5 points as a favorite throughout the betting window, with the spread fluctuating heavily as the market has adjusted. The total has drifted between 176.5 and 178.5, with the number settling near the middle of that range as tipoff approaches. Below is the current market snapshot along with every tracked line movement entry.
Current Odds
| Market | New York | Minnesota |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +6.5 (-108) | -6.5 (-112) |
| Total | 177.5 (Over -108 / Under -112) | |
Line Movement - Spread
| Date | New York | Minnesota | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/18 | +6.5 (-108) | -6.5 (-112) | NY 64%, MIN 89% |
| 09/18 | +7.5 (-115) | -7.5 (-105) | NY 64%, MIN 89% |
| 09/18 | +6.5 (-102) | -6.5 (-118) | NY 92%, MIN 83% |
| 09/18 | +7.5 (-115) | -7.5 (-105) | NY 92%, MIN 80% |
| 09/17 | +6.5 (-105) | -6.5 (-115) | NY 97%, MIN 67% |
| 09/17 | +7.5 (-118) | -7.5 (-102) | NY 97%, MIN 67% |
| 09/17 | +6.5 (-105) | -6.5 (-115) | NY 97%, MIN 67% |
| 09/17 | +7.5 (-118) | -7.5 (-102) | NY 100%, NY 100% |
| 09/17 | +6.5 (-105) | -6.5 (-115) | NY 100%, NY 100% |
| 09/17 | +7.5 (-118) | -7.5 (-102) | NY 100%, NY 100% |
| 09/17 | +6.5 (-105) | -6.5 (-115) | NY 100%, NY 100% |
| 09/17 | +7.5 (-118) | -7.5 (-102) | NY 100%, NY 100% |
| 09/17 | +6.5 (-105) | -6.5 (-115) | NY 100%, NY 100% |
| 09/17 | +7.5 (-118) | -7.5 (-102) | NY 100%, NY 100% |
| 09/17 | +6.5 (-105) | -6.5 (-115) | NY 100%, NY 100% |
| 09/17 | +7.5 (-118) | -7.5 (-102) | NY 100%, NY 100% |
Line Movement - Total
| Date | Over | Under | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/18 | 177.5 (-108) | 177.5 (-112) | UN 100%, UN 100% |
| 09/14 | 176.5 (-110) | 176.5 (-110) | UN 100%, UN 100% |
| 09/14 | 177.5 (-108) | 177.5 (-112) | UN 100%, UN 100% |
| 09/14 | 177.5 (-112) | 177.5 (-108) | UN 100%, UN 100% |
| 09/02 | 178.5 (-110) | 178.5 (-110) |
Liberty vs Lynx: Key Matchups and Game Preview
Minnesota enters this matchup at 31-9 and atop the Western Conference, while New York sits at 24-16 and fourth in the East. Minnesota has been the more complete team statistically, averaging 91.3 points per game while allowing only 83.4, compared with New York's 89.8 points scored and 86.9 allowed. The Lynx are also shooting 48% from the field and averaging 21.7 assists, while the Liberty are at 46% shooting and 20.8 assists.
The season series is tied 1-1, with New York winning 99-86 at home before Minnesota answered with a 90-85 victory at Target Center.
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Minnesota's Complete Statistical Profile
Minnesota has received an outstanding season from Olivia Miles, who leads the team with 19.7 points and 6.0 assists per game while shooting 49.5% from the floor, and Natasha Howard adds a team-best 7.7 rebounds. Minnesota has dropped two straight games to Golden State and Atlanta.
New York's Rebounding Edge
New York does hold a 35.3-34.3 advantage on the glass, which could help keep the game competitive. Breanna Stewart leads the Liberty with 20.4 points per game, while Jonquel Jones is pulling down 9.0 rebounds per contest. New York has alternated wins and losses over its last four and most recently defeated Chicago 85-66.
NY vs MIN Betting Trends
Liberty Trends
- Alternated wins and losses over the last four games
- Most recently defeated Chicago 85-66
- Won the first meeting against Minnesota 99-86
- 35.3 rebounds per game, holding a slight edge over Minnesota
Lynx Trends
- Dropped two straight games to Golden State and Atlanta
- Won the second meeting against New York 90-85 at Target Center
- 91.3 points per game while allowing only 83.4
- 48% shooting from the field with 21.7 assists per game
NY and MIN Key Injuries and Things To Know
Liberty Injuries
- Satou Sabally - out for the season due to concussion-related issues
Lynx Injuries
- Anastasiia Olairi Kosu - foot injury
Liberty vs Lynx Side and Over/Under Picks
Minnesota's defensive edge, superior shooting percentage and home court make the Lynx deserving favorites, but 6.5 points is significant against a Liberty team with enough rebounding and star power to remain within striking distance. The spread pick is New York +6.5 (-108), while Under 177.5 (-112) is the total play.
- Spread Pick: Liberty +6.5
- Total Pick: Under 177.5
Liberty vs Lynx Final Score Prediction
- Minnesota Lynx: 89
- New York Liberty: 85
Minnesota's defensive edge and home-court advantage should be enough to edge out a close contest, while New York's rebounding advantage and star power from Stewart and Jones should keep the Liberty within striking distance throughout.
How to Wager On Liberty vs Lynx
Bettors have a few clear angles to build around in this matchup: New York +6.5, the total under 177.5, or pairing both given the Liberty's rebounding edge and how competitive the season series has been so far. For more tools before locking in a wager, our AI picks hub breaks down model-driven projections for this matchup and others on the board. You can also check our Dimers review and our Oddible review for a closer look at how each platform's numbers compare with the current market on Liberty vs Lynx.
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