New York Liberty vs Phoenix Mercury Picks and Predictions for Friday, September 19, 2025

By: David Anicetti Published 09/19/2025, 12:00 AM ET

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The New York Liberty visit the Phoenix Mercury on Friday night in Phoenix with their first-round best-of-three series tied 1–1. New York lost Game 2 at home 86–60 on Wednesday after stealing Game 1 in overtime 76-69 on Sunday. The Liberty are 10–12 on the road this season, while the Mercury are 15–7 at home. Tip-off is scheduled for 9:00 PM ET on ESPN2. Pick up a series-deciding win with our free WNBA picks.

New York Liberty Preview

The Liberty are led in the postseason by Natasha Cloud, who is putting up 15.5 points and 2 steals per game while shooting 64.7% from the field. Sabrina Ionescu has added 12.5 points and 5 assists, but she is hitting just 29% from the floor through two games. Regular season leading scorer Breanna Stewart, who is nursing an injury, has scored an average of just 12.0 per game through two games.

The Liberty’s frontcourt remains key with Jonquel Jones averaging 12.5 rebounds and 2.5 blocks. The Liberty are shooting just 36.3% overall and 27.1% from three-point territory. If New York controls the glass and limits turnovers, the offense should perform better than in Wednesday’s 26-point loss.

Phoenix Mercury Preview

Alyssa Thomas has been the centerpiece in the postseason for the Mercury, averaging 14.5 points, 7.5 rebounds, and 7.5 assists per game. Kahleah Copper is also scoring 14.5 per game on 45.5% shooting, while DeWanna Bonner adds 13 points. The Mercury are shooting 39.9% overall and 26.0% from three-point territory, which are both below their regular-season averages.

The Mercury defense has been strong, holding New York to 60 points in Game 2. Satou Sabally is averaging 7.5 rebounds per game, which is tied for the lead on the Mercury. Phoenix is 15–7 at home this season and needs to use its momentum from an overtime rout of the Liberty on Wednesday to close out this series on Friday.

New York Liberty vs Phoenix Mercury Prediction

This series has flipped back and forth, but New York’s size and ball movement give them more consistent scoring options. If Ionescu finds her shooting eye, the Liberty can bounce back from Wednesday’s blowout loss. Phoenix has the home court advantage, but the matchup favors New York if they control the boards and keep turnovers low. Final Score Prediction: New York Liberty 78-74.

Best Picks

New York Liberty +2.5
Under 155.5 (-105)

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