New York Liberty vs Seattle Storm Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Thursday June 25 2026
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Thursday night's late tip-off on the West Coast features the most lopsided matchup on the WNBA slate, and our latest WNBA predictions make the case for laying the large number with a New York Liberty team that has the talent, depth, and defensive structure to bury a Seattle Storm club in complete free fall. The Liberty visit Climate Pledge Arena at 10:00 p.m. ET as -600 moneyline favorites laying 11.5 points, and as uncomfortable as laying double digits can feel, the matchup data and injury context build a genuine case for trusting New York to cover against a team on an 11-game losing streak missing multiple key frontcourt pieces.
Quick Picks and Prediction
- Side Pick: New York Liberty -11.5
- Total Pick: Under 170.5
- Projected Final Score: Liberty 91, Storm 75
Odds and Line Movement
The spread has moved significantly in New York's favor through the tracking window. The line opened at -11.5 Wednesday evening before briefly reaching -13.5 in the early overnight hours, then compressing back to the current -11.5 range as of Thursday morning. Seattle has drawn the majority of spread dollars throughout the window — 98 to 99 percent in most updates — which reflects public money backing the Storm as a large home underdog. The total has been a consistent over market, with the number moving from 166.5 at opening to the current 170.5 on heavy over action. Below are the full line movement tables from tracked data.
Current Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| New York Liberty | -11.5 (-115) | -600 | Over 170.5 (-108) |
| Seattle Storm | +11.5 (-105) | +440 | Under 170.5 (-112) |
Line Movement - Spread
| Date | Time | New York | Seattle | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/25 | 09:14:57AM | -11.5 -115 | +11.5 -105 | SEA 98%, NY 53% |
| 06/25 | 08:48:37AM | -11.5 -112 | +11.5 -108 | SEA 98%, NY 53% |
| 06/25 | 08:47:38AM | -11.5 -115 | +11.5 -105 | SEA 98%, NY 53% |
| 06/25 | 07:36:37AM | -11.5 -112 | +11.5 -108 | SEA 99%, NY 57% |
| 06/25 | 07:36:37AM | - | - | - |
| 06/25 | 12:13:57AM | -12.5 -105 | +12.5 -115 | SEA 99%, NY 57% |
| 06/25 | 12:04:17AM | -12.5 -110 | +12.5 -110 | SEA 99%, NY 57% |
| 06/24 | 11:32:56PM | -12.5 -105 | +12.5 -115 | SEA 99%, NY 57% |
| 06/24 | 11:16:56PM | -12.5 -110 | +12.5 -110 | SEA 99%, NY 57% |
| 06/24 | 11:07:46PM | -12.5 -105 | +12.5 -115 | SEA 71%, NY 67% |
| 06/24 | 09:57:27PM | -12.5 -110 | +12.5 -110 | SEA 100%, SEA 100% |
| 06/24 | 09:57:27PM | - | - | - |
| 06/24 | 07:19:07AM | -13.5 -112 | +13.5 -108 | - |
| 06/24 | 06:57:17AM | -13.5 -105 | +13.5 -115 | - |
| 06/24 | 06:57:16AM | - | - | - |
| 06/24 | 05:14:57AM | -12.5 -118 | +12.5 -102 | - |
| 06/24 | 02:45:36AM | -12.5 -110 | +12.5 -110 | - |
| 06/24 | 02:45:36AM | - | - | - |
| 06/24 | 12:28:50AM | -11.5 -110 | +11.5 -110 | - |
Line Movement - Total
| Date | Time | Over | Under | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/25 | 08:48:38AM | 170.5 -108 | 170.5 -112 | OV 98%, OV 91% |
| 06/25 | 08:47:38AM | 169.5 -112 | 169.5 -108 | OV 98%, OV 91% |
| 06/25 | 08:10:57AM | 169.5 -105 | 169.5 -115 | OV 98%, OV 91% |
| 06/25 | 08:08:27AM | 168.5 -110 | 168.5 -110 | OV 98%, OV 91% |
| 06/25 | 01:06:47AM | 168.5 -112 | 168.5 -108 | OV 97%, OV 80% |
| 06/25 | 01:04:57AM | 168.5 -105 | 168.5 -115 | OV 97%, OV 80% |
| 06/25 | 01:04:57AM | - | - | - |
| 06/25 | 12:04:17AM | 167.5 -110 | 167.5 -110 | OV 97%, OV 80% |
| 06/25 | 12:04:17AM | - | - | - |
| 06/24 | 07:48:28PM | 168.5 -112 | 168.5 -108 | OV 100%, OV 100% |
| 06/24 | 07:12:08PM | 168.5 -105 | 168.5 -115 | - |
| 06/24 | 07:12:08PM | - | - | - |
| 06/24 | 09:57:27PM | 167.5 -110 | 167.5 -110 | - |
| 06/24 | 09:57:27PM | - | - | - |
| 06/24 | 12:28:50AM | 166.5 -110 | 166.5 -110 | - |
Liberty vs Storm Key Matchups and Game Preview
Laying double digits in the WNBA requires a specific kind of confidence in the talent gap and a willingness to trust that the favored team's defensive structure can limit a struggling offense for 40 minutes. In this game, both conditions are present in a way that is rarely this clear-cut on the regular-season slate.
Stewart's Dominance Against Seattle's Interior
Breanna Stewart averaging 19.4 points per game is the starting point for any New York projection, but the more important factor Thursday night is how she performs against a Seattle frontcourt that has lost Ezi Magbegor to a foot injury. Magbegor was the Storm's primary interior anchor and the closest thing Seattle has to a credible matchup challenge for Stewart in the post. Without her available, Stewart is operating against a significantly lighter defensive presence in the paint, which typically translates to higher field goal percentage, easier path to the free throw line, and more consistent scoring across all four quarters. A 19-point average against full rosters becomes a 22-25 point projection when the primary interior defender is unavailable, and that kind of individual production edge compounds quickly against a Seattle offense averaging only 78.8 points per game.
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Storm's Offensive Struggles
Seattle's 78.8 points per game is one of the lower marks in the WNBA, and the 41 percent team field goal percentage reflects a half-court offense that regularly fails to generate quality looks. Natisha Hiedeman's 15.6 points and 4.7 assists lead the team, but her scoring average is not enough to carry a lineup that ranks below average in nearly every offensive category. Against a New York defense allowing only 83.1 points per game — the best defensive number in this matchup by over two points — the Storm's offensive limitations become structural rather than incidental. The Liberty's 35.5 rebounds per game compared to Seattle's 31.6 means New York will control the glass on both ends, limiting second-chance opportunities for a Storm offense that is already struggling to generate first-chance quality looks. The combination of Magbegor's absence removing Seattle's best rebounder and New York's superior glass presence creates a possession-by-possession advantage that compounds across 40 minutes into a double-digit margin.
Liberty's Balanced Scoring Depth
What separates the Liberty from most WNBA favorites in a spot like this is the genuine depth of their scoring options. Stewart's 19.4 points is the headline, but Jonquel Jones's 8.8 rebounds anchor a second frontcourt presence that Seattle simply cannot match with Magbegor unavailable. Pauline Astier's 3.7 assists per game reflects a team that moves the ball effectively and creates open looks for multiple scorers, which means New York is not dependent on any single player having a great shooting night to cover 11.5 points. When a team generates assists at a 21.0-per-game rate against a team allowing 85.9 points, the scoring environment tends to favor the efficient offense — and the Liberty's 46 percent shooting versus Seattle's 41 percent is the most concrete representation of that edge across a full game of possessions.
Seattle's Losing Streak Context
An 11-game losing streak is not just a number — it reflects a team dealing with compounding roster problems, diminished late-game execution, and the kind of confidence erosion that shows up in close-game situations where the better team might otherwise let a struggling opponent hang around. Jordan Horston's foot injury and Taina Mair's unavailability further reduce the Storm's depth at guard and wing, leaving Hiedeman as the primary creation option in a lineup without the secondary scoring needed to keep pace with New York's balanced attack. A team losing 11 consecutive games by the margins Seattle has been losing them is not a team that finds a way to cover 11.5 points against the second-best defense in the conference, regardless of home-court advantage.
Betting Trends - NY and SEA
The spread movement in this game reflects a market adjusting to Seattle's injury situation in real time. The line opened at -11.5 on Wednesday morning before moving up to -13.5 in the early Wednesday afternoon window, then gradually compressing back to the current -11.5 range by Thursday morning. That two-point round trip is unusual and likely reflects the book balancing liability as Seattle's public underdog money came in against the initial sharp move that pushed the number to -13.5. The current -11.5 is lower than where sharp action originally took it, which argues for the Liberty covering being the correct structural position.
Seattle has drawn 98 to 99 percent of spread dollars through the Thursday morning tracking window, which is the kind of extreme public underdog support that books typically shade against. When a struggling home underdog draws maximum public support, the book has strong incentive to hold the line rather than move it further, and the compression from -13.5 back to -11.5 is consistent with that pattern. The total has been a consistent over market, moving from 166.5 at opening to the current 170.5 on four points of upward movement driven by 97 to 100 percent over action throughout. Despite that movement, the under at 170.5 is the correct lean given New York's defensive profile and Seattle's 78.8-point scoring average — the public over action has simply pushed a number that was originally set too low for this specific defensive matchup.
Key Injuries and Things To Know - NY and SEA
Ezi Magbegor's foot injury is the most impactful absence in this game and directly enables New York's spread cover case. As Seattle's starting center and primary interior defender, Magbegor was the one player capable of making Breanna Stewart's post game even marginally uncomfortable. Without her, the Storm are defending the paint with a patchwork frontcourt against one of the WNBA's best post scorers, which means Stewart can operate at will in the interior from the opening possession. Jordan Horston's foot injury removes another key piece from Seattle's rotation, and Taina Mair's unavailability further reduces the guard and wing depth that Hiedeman needs to manage her own minutes across 40 demanding minutes against New York's defense.
New York's primary injury concern is Satou Sabally, listed as a game-time decision with a head issue. Sabally's frontcourt depth and secondary scoring capability would be missed, but the Liberty still have Stewart, Jones, and a complete supporting cast capable of covering 11.5 points against a 3-15 team without their best interior player. Confirm Sabally's status at tip-off, but even without her, New York has more than enough to win this game by double digits. The injury asymmetry in this game — Seattle missing two key players to foot injuries, New York with a possible game-time decision — strongly supports laying the number rather than fading it.
Liberty vs Storm Side and Over/Under Picks
Side Pick: New York Liberty -11.5
The talent gap is real, the injury asymmetry amplifies it, and Seattle's 11-game losing streak reflects a team that has no structural mechanism for keeping games close against the Liberty's defensive structure. Stewart against a frontcourt missing Magbegor is as clean an individual mismatch as you will find on the Thursday slate, and New York's 46 percent shooting versus Seattle's 41 percent across a full game produces the kind of cumulative point differential that covers double-digit spreads. Lay the number.
Total Pick: Under 170.5
The total has been bid up four points from opening on heavy public over action, but Seattle's 78.8-point scoring average is the anchor that keeps this game under. New York's defense allows 83.1 points per game — and against a Storm offense missing Magbegor's interior presence and Jordan Horston's wing production, that average likely represents a ceiling rather than a floor for Seattle's output. A projected 91-75 final score totals 166, comfortably under 170.5. Fade the public over and take the under at the inflated number.
Final Score Prediction
Stewart establishes herself in the post from the opening quarter against Seattle's undermanned frontcourt, building a first-half lead that the Liberty never relinquish. Jones dominates the glass without Magbegor as a countering force, converting second-chance opportunities into points that expand New York's margin through three quarters. Hiedeman puts together a respectable individual performance but cannot generate enough secondary scoring from an injury-depleted Storm roster to threaten the Liberty's lead at any point in the second half.
Projected Final Score: New York Liberty 91, Seattle Storm 75
How to Wager On Liberty vs Storm
Double-digit spread plays in the WNBA work best when the talent gap is substantiated by specific matchup data rather than just record differentials, and this game offers both. New York's defensive profile, rebounding advantage, and individual star dominance over an injury-depleted Seattle frontcourt are the structural factors that validate laying -11.5 in a spot where the public is hammering the underdog. The under is the second angle, grounded in Seattle's scoring average and New York's defensive quality rather than abstract fade-the-public logic.
For bettors who want a data-driven complement to this analysis, AI picks are worth consulting before a late-night tip-off with active injury questions, particularly for total projections where a team's adjusted scoring average with and without specific players can change the over-under probability meaningfully. Models that incorporate injury-adjusted offensive ratings and defensive point-prevention metrics can confirm or challenge the under at a number that has been bid four points higher than opening.
Two platforms that are particularly well-suited for this type of late-night WNBA spread play are covered in the Dimers review and the Oddible review. Dimers builds adjusted win probability and scoring models that account for roster absences, making it useful for confirming the Liberty's spread cover probability when Magbegor's interior absence is factored into Seattle's defensive rating. Oddible's line comparison tools help identify the best available number on the Liberty spread across books, which matters here because the line has moved between -11.5 and -13.5 across the tracking window — finding -11.5 versus -12.5 on a game where the margin is expected to be right around that threshold can be the difference between a cover and a push. Both tools belong in your Thursday night WNBA betting process for games with significant injury-driven handicapping advantages.
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