Phoenix Mercury at Las Vegas Aces Picks and Prediction for Saturday July 11 2026
Use Code PPWC
Michelob ULTRA Arena in Las Vegas hosts Saturday evening's marquee WNBA showdown at 6:00 PM ET as the Phoenix Mercury visit the Las Vegas Aces in a Western Conference rivalry matchup with real playoff positioning implications on the line. Las Vegas enter at 16-6, tied with Minnesota for the best record in the WNBA, having moved into that tie courtesy of A'ja Wilson's 32-point performance in an 88-80 win over Portland Fire. That result gave Becky Hammon one of the two coaching spots for the All-Star Game on July 25 in Chicago. Phoenix arrive at 8-15, struggling to find consistency and sitting fifth in the Western Conference, the game holds particular significance given the two sides have already split their season series, with Phoenix pulling off the biggest upset of the WNBA's opening weekend in a stunning 99-66 blowout at this very arena on May 9. Read on to find out who comes out on top in our Mercury vs. Aces prediction. Get our top WNBA Predictions and increase your bankroll!
Las Vegas Aces: Wilson Back to Dominant Form
Jackie Young added 19 points, 11 assists, and three steals as Las Vegas moved into a tie with the Minnesota Lynx for the best record in the WNBA. That victory, the performance that confirmed Hammon's All-Star coaching invitation, was the latest evidence that the Aces have rediscovered the collective efficiency that made them back-to-back champions in 2022 and 2023. The identity is built on the same foundation it has always been: Wilson in the post creating mismatches, Gray threading the needle from the point guard position, and Young providing the two-way energy off the ball that makes the system function at its highest level.
A'ja Wilson remains the most physically dominant player in the WNBA and the cornerstone around which Hammon's entire offensive structure is organized. Her 32-point performance against Portland, scored on a variety of post moves, mid-range jumpers, and free-throw-line attacks that demonstrate her complete offensive arsenal, was the kind of statement game that reminds every Western Conference opponent why the Aces remain the standard against which all other title contenders are measured. Las Vegas makes 48.7% of its shots from the field this season, which is 2.7 percentage points higher than Phoenix has allowed to its opponents.
Chelsea Gray's 7.3 assists per game lead the entire league and give the Aces a creative engine that makes their offense difficult to defend, Gray's ability to find the right player at the right moment, whether that is Wilson in the post, Young cutting to the basket, or a corner shooter spotting up off Wilson's gravity, gives Las Vegas a decision-making advantage that manifests in the Aces' league-leading assist total. Janiah Barker is day to day with a leg injury, and Dana Evans is also day to day with a leg injury, two depth pieces whose availability will be monitored ahead of tipoff but who do not affect the Aces' core rotation.
Sign Up Get $30 Premium Picks Credit + Exclusive Offers
Subscribe Now
Phoenix Mercury: Copper the Lone Consistent Scorer
On Tuesday, Phoenix veteran DeWanna Bonner became the third player in WNBA history to exceed 8,000 career points. Bonner, who turns 39 next month, averages 9.0 points per game this season in her 17th WNBA campaign. That personal milestone is the bright story in a Mercury season that has otherwise been defined by inconsistency, offensive struggles, and a 5-11 record against teams over .500 that tells the complete story of where this squad sits relative to the Western Conference's elite.
Kahleah Copper remains Phoenix's primary scorer and most reliable offensive creator, but the lack of a dependable second option alongside her has made the Mercury's attack predictable enough for organized defensive teams to contain, a problem that is most acute on the road against teams with the defensive sophistication of Las Vegas. Phoenix averages 8.1 made three-pointers per game this season, 0.9 fewer makes per game than Las Vegas allows, a three-point production differential that reflects a Mercury offense without enough perimeter shooting to stretch an Aces defensive scheme built specifically to protect the paint and contest threes simultaneously.
Natasha Mack is out with a foot injury, a significant frontcourt loss that reduces Phoenix's interior depth and their capacity to compete with Wilson's physicality for 40 minutes. The May 9 blowout, Phoenix's 99-66 opening-night upset in this building, is the outlier result that bettors must contextualize carefully. Phoenix were fresh, Las Vegas were flat, and the Aces have not replicated that performance level since. The season series is split 1-1 heading into Saturday, but the trajectory of both franchises over the intervening two months points in dramatically different directions, Las Vegas surging to the top of the Western Conference, Phoenix sitting at 8-15 and fighting to stay relevant in the playoff picture.
Mercury vs. Aces Picks
- Money Line Pick: Las Vegas Aces
The Aces are the right side to back at Michelob ULTRA Arena on the back of Wilson's 32-point performance and with All-Star momentum fueling the entire organization. Phoenix have a 5-11 record against teams over .500, and Las Vegas at home, with Wilson, Gray, and Young all healthy and playing their best basketball of the season, represents exactly the kind of matchup that has exposed the Mercury's defensive limitations on the road all season. The May blowout is not a template for Saturday; it was an outlier result from the season's first night that the Aces have made clear adjustments from. Take Las Vegas to win and extend their shared hold on the league's best record.
- Over/Under Pick: Over 168.5
Las Vegas averages 92.1 points per game, the highest scoring output in the Western Conference, while Phoenix allows 86.6 points per game to opponents and scores 82.2 of their own. The Aces' 48.7% field goal percentage against a Mercury defense that ranks near the league's bottom in defensive efficiency creates the structural conditions for a high-scoring game in the desert. Wilson alone can contribute 25 or more points against a Phoenix frontcourt missing Mack, and Gray's playmaking generates the kind of early-quarter scoring runs that push game totals past 170 before the second half is fully underway. Take the Over and back Las Vegas to put up a big number at home on a Saturday night in Sin City.
Betting on the WNBA?
- Find our list of our favorite WNBA sportsbooks
- Claim your promos with the best WNBA sportsbook bonuses
Up To $1500 in Bonus Bets Paid Back if your First Bet Does Not Win
New Users – Bet $5 Get $200 in Bet Reset Tokens for 5 Days
New DraftKings Customers: Spend $5+ Get $200 in Bonuses Instantly!
