Phoenix Mercury at Las Vegas Aces Picks & Predictions for Friday, October 3, 2025

By: David Anicetti Published 10/03/2025, 05:00 AM ET

The 2025 WNBA Finals begin Friday with the Phoenix Mercury visiting the Las Vegas Aces. Phoenix advanced by beating Minnesota 3–1 in the semifinals, clinching the series 86–81. Las Vegas reached the finals by defeating Indiana 3–2, closing the series with a 107–98 overtime victory. Game 1 is set for Friday, October 3, at 9:00 PM ET at Michelob ULTRA Arena in Las Vegas, televised on ESPN. The Aces open as -2.5 favorites with the total at 160.5 points. Score the winning basket with our free WNBA picks.

Phoenix Mercury Preview

Alyssa Thomas has led the Mercury in the postseason, averaging 18.6 points, 8.4 rebounds, and 9.1 assists per game. Satou Sabally is second, averaging 17.9 points and 7.4 rebounds, while Kahleah Copper contributes 15.1 points. Phoenix is averaging 80.3 points per game and allowing 75.9 in the playoffs.

The Mercury closed the semifinals strong with three straight wins over the Lynx. Thomas has been the main playmaker, while Sabally and Copper provide steady scoring. Sami Whitcomb has added shooting, and Natasha Mack has helped on the glass. Taking care of the ball and solid shot selection will be critical in Game 1.

Las Vegas Aces Preview

Las Vegas has relied on A’ja Wilson, who is averaging 26.0 points, 9.1 rebounds, 2.6 steals, and 2.8 blocks per game. Jackie Young has been consistent, averaging 20.5 points and 5.3 assists, and Chelsea Gray adds 7.3 assists per game. The Aces as a team are hitting 48.5% from the field and 39.2% from three.

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The Aces showed their toughness in the semifinal clincher against Indiana, winning in overtime. Wilson controls the inside, while Young and Gray space the floor and score from outside. The key for Las Vegas in Game 1 will be rebounding and keeping Phoenix from scoring in transition.

Phoenix Mercury vs. Las Vegas Aces Prediction

Las Vegas will win at home. Wilson is the best player in the series, and the Aces’ backcourt has been steady throughout the playoffs. Phoenix has been good at finding ways to win games, but the Aces’ balance and ability to win close one-possession games, make them the choice to start the Finals with a win. Final Score Prediction: Las Vegas Aces win and cover ATS 85-79.

Best Picks

Las Vegas Aces -2.5

Over 160.5 points

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